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Forums - Microsoft - Why do people say the Ps3 will outsell Xbox360?

I have both and love both consoles, but it's evident that the ps3 will catch the 360 eventually...my guess is around late 2009. The 360 has already launched many of its successful, proven IP's--really just waiting on Fable 2. The PS3 hasn't launched any really....maybe R&C....GT5:P is just that--a prologue.

None of the major ps3 franchises have released yet......Final Fantasy, Dark Cloud, Team ICO project, God of War, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo, etc.  Quite frankly, Sony hasn't released shit for the ps3 YET--and it's still doing fairly well.

I'm purposely leaving out unproven franchises like LBP, Home (not really a game), and White Knight Chronicles, Killzone II, and Haze.....they've not proven themselves yet.

My point is, that the ps3 is way behind, but it's already outsold the 360 by around 800,000 during the first 3 months of the year (slow time). As the big name franchises release, that # will only increase.

But regardless, I think they can both co-exist just fine.



PSN ID: Sorrow880

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I 'm afraid the age of the traditional Japanese rpg has passed



''Hadouken!''

Ajax said:
I 'm afraid the age of the traditional Japanese rpg has passed

 Pokemon and Dragon Quest would beg to differ.



a couple don't make an age anymore, and Dragon Quest's main series launching on a hendheld for the first time also says something, for consoles it's certainly changed 



''Hadouken!''

Ajax said:
I 'm afraid the age of the traditional Japanese rpg has passed

Someone with a Ryu avatar should know that the past doesn't die easily.



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The simple reason is that the 360 only dominates one market with all its killer games out already and the PS3 can dominate all markets its just that no killer games are out for it yet so its just untapped markets for the PS3.



Words Of Wisdom said:
Ajax said:
I 'm afraid the age of the traditional Japanese rpg has passed

Someone with a Ryu avatar should know that the past doesn't die easily.


that's right, but it differs per genre, a soccer game is still a soccer game only it looks better and you've got more options, same for shooters and fighters and other genres, they get updated but the essence in gameplay stays the same, but the rpg genre has got much more room for evolution and it seems that genre will include less traditional japanese rpgs the coming 2 years as developers have gone to use action-rpg battle systems more often and more real-time battle elements, so the 'traditionalness' in the genre, with some exceptions is fading..



''Hadouken!''

gebx said:
masterb8tr said:
If it coninues like these(based on charts from april 5th) the ps3 will catch up in 63 weeks.

186 000/(11.6 *10^6)= 0.015(ps3)
134000/(18.1*10^6)=0.0075(360)
1.015^x*11.6*10^6=1.0075^x*18.1*10^6
(1.015^x)/(1.0075^x)=(18.1*10^6)/(11.6*10^6)
1.0079^x=1.56034
(log 1.56034)/(log 1.0079)=63-64 weeks

In europe 19 weeks:

100 000/5.2mill=.02(ps3)
66 000/6.2mill=.01(360)
5.1mil*1.02^x=6.2*1.01^x
1.02/1.01= 1.0099=1.01^x
6.2/5.1=1.21
log 1.21/log 1.01= 19 weeks
You're using a wrecking ball to hit a nail in a two by four... this is simple math

PS3 is outselling the 360 by 52,000 units/week so it will take 123 weeks for the PS3 to catch up to the 6.4 million consoles its behind... NOT 66
Or it would, if sales were at the same level year round.  But if the sales proportions remain the same over the Christmas period (and I don't say they necessarily will) then that shortens the time span drastically. 

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gebx said:
masterb8tr said:
If it coninues like these(based on charts from april 5th) the ps3 will catch up in 63 weeks.

186 000/(11.6 *10^6)= 0.015(ps3)

134000/(18.1*10^6)=0.0075(360)

1.015^x*11.6*10^6=1.0075^x*18.1*10^6

(1.015^x)/(1.0075^x)=(18.1*10^6)/(11.6*10^6)

1.0079^x=1.56034

(log 1.56034)/(log 1.0079)=63-64 weeks


In europe 19 weeks:


100 000/5.2mill=.02(ps3)

66 000/6.2mill=.01(360)

5.1mil*1.02^x=6.2*1.01^x

1.02/1.01= 1.0099=1.01^x

6.2/5.1=1.21

log 1.21/log 1.01= 19 weeks

You're using a wrecking ball to hit a nail in a two by four... this is simple math

PS3 is outselling the 360 by 52,000 units/week so it will take 123 weeks for the PS3 to catch up to the 6.4 million consoles its behind... NOT 66


hmm perhaps i did something wrong, been along time since i did this kind of math. I divided weekly sales on total sales to check the increase per week. which was 0.015% that means that total sales for ps3 increase 1.015% each week. Then i used logarithms.

 

However the numbers will be a bit off since the total increase will not be 1.015% each week, but if i conclude that the ps3 will recieve a rather strong sales boost( due to its fans sitting on the ps2 waiting to take the leap into the next generation and the rather strong line up), I think you will se that the numbers might not be so off after all. This is just an estimation made by me and these are just my thoughts on the matter. The 360 might receive a sales boost as well, but the ps3 line up is much stronger.



This is premature. Wait until the GTA smoke dies down a bit. I know quite a few people that want a next gen system but held back due to lack of block buster games, price or hardware that doesn't fail. GTA and the new xbox rev will change this. So we will see what happens in the next month. The next test is when MS and Sony lower prices by a 100 bucks.