I think NC is more likely than Georgia. I know having a weak guv'na candidate doesn't hurt the presidential candidate, but I feel considering how vile Robinson is, how much Trump praised him, and how Trump has not said anything to distance himself... I think that's gotta nudge the numbers a little bit.

Republicans are ahed in NC right now, but NC has a about 1/3 of their voters registered as unaffiliated. So, really the election is going to come down to how those voters break. I am predicting more will break democrat and more republicans will be voting Democrat (by a slight margin).

If I've overlooked Ryuu posting this already, I apologize.

I'll refrain from a prediction until the Selzer poll drops. That one will be the canary in the coal mine on how things are actually shaping up.

I'll enjoy watching archives of Trump trolling America.  As much as i'd hate to see him as president, i think he's hilarious and quite clown-like these days.   That's a big difference to say the 90's and 2000's when he was more composed.      

If anybody would like to show videos of trump talking trash, i for one would be heavily entertained.  And you'd let us all have some belly laughs as we watch that darn Trump act the fool.  

Lmao. Just like that, his lead in two betting markets has evaporated. Not that I put much stock into betting markets but it's funny how two of them have suddenly collapsed in an instant.

There's always Polymarket though and the $30m Frenchman.

This is what the polls look like if you eliminate the shadier polls for PA. It's not a bad picture for Harris. If you assume the polls are accurate, this would indicate Kamala has a significantly better than 50% chance of winning there. The polls in MI and WI look much better. 

Fucking Lol. If the data is "corrupt" then this whole aggregator shit feels useless and if we end up with either candidate having a blowout then polls will never be trusted ever again. They better hope whoever wins, does so with small margins.

A thought occurs to me. Suppose I was someone interested in creating a narrative that Trump is winning. Suppose further that I have a lot of money (I do not). Suppose I place a heavy bet of say 50 million bet on Trump. Suppose I know that the odds will, in all likelyhood stay at somewhere around 50-50%. Now, suppose I place a 50 million bet on Harris right before the election. If I had done all that, I would have effectively paid for lots of advertising for Trump as news websites post about him leading in the betting markets, with a very minimal risk to myself. If whichever candidate is less favored wins, I'll actually come out ahead. If people were doing this, what would it look like? Well, you'd see Trumps odds spike in Octoberish as people beyond folks like us start paying attention. It would be best for Trump if I waited to pull my money out till as late as possible, but the earlier I do it the better the return if Harris wins. So, if I think that Trump is going to lose, I won't want to wait until election day. About a week before, I would start pulling my money out.

It would look something like this.

or this...

This is my prediction. Yes, I am predicting a clean sweep of the battleground states. I was going to explain clearly my reasoning, but it was taking too long. To put it succinctly, I think the polls are underestimating Harris. Moreover, I just don't buy that Harris is going to do worse than Biden. It is possible that Nevada and Arizona might flip as the border is more of an issue there, but I really don't think that's enough. In Arizona abortion is on the ballot. 

The early vote seems encouraging for many reasons. It seems that there are more new voters for democrats, overall higher participation, and a higher female vote. Good for Dems.

Looking past the data to the race, there are two reasons Trump *might* do better this time around. Immigration, and inflation. Inflation has been decreasing, but shit's still expensive. Border crossings have fallen too, although facts don't always matter so these factors still weigh in favor of Trump. 

There is always the fact that Kamala Harris is a woman. Should that matter? No. Will it? Who knows.

Meanwhile, on the other side, January 6th was a thing that happened. Election deniers have not fared well in elections. Abortion is another big issue. Trump is not running against another old man, but someone who is younger and Trump is frankly not looking too good these days. 

All of those things factored in, I just see Harris performing better than Biden did. The polls don't show it, but I think there's a lot of reason to expect the polls are underestimating Democrats this year. 

So, yup. Calling the sweep.