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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

Ryuu96 5 days ago
JWeinCom said:
Ryuu96 said:

You mean Putin?

For context on this in 2020 53% of voters were women. Going from 53 to 56 would likely lead to a Kamala victory especially if they are driven by abortion which would seem to be the most likely reason for such a jump.  But, it may just be that men are procrastinating.

Oh yeah, I was just joking that Jill Stein is a puppet of Putin, Lol.



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haxxiy 5 days ago
Ryuu96 said:

This too, Biden isn't running for President, Harris is, the more Trump spends attacking Biden is better for Harris.

If this was Biden, we would have a whole day of coverage on Fox News.



 

 

 

 

 

Ryuu96 5 days ago

Also put Bill Clinton in the same cupboard as Joe Biden, JFC.



Ryuu96 5 days ago
haxxiy said:
Ryuu96 said:

This too, Biden isn't running for President, Harris is, the more Trump spends attacking Biden is better for Harris.

If this was Biden, we would have a whole day of coverage on Fox News.

Dementia Joe.

Stroke Hillary.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 5 days ago

the-pi-guy 5 days ago
Spoiler!
This guy is a comedian, and isn't actually the one in the truck.  



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Ryuu96 5 days ago

We're getting so close to "remove women's voting rights" from these people for sure.



sc94597 5 days ago

These are the two main datapoints that make me more confident in the Democratic Party's chances. 

Last edited by sc94597 - 5 days ago

the-pi-guy 5 days ago

I think the Bernie Sanders video was shared a couple days ago.

But I thought the Bill Clinton videos I just saw were an interesting contrast to Sanders. 

Amazes me how much better Bernie's message is.

And I swear the man has had the strangest aging process. He's looked like he's 65 for the past 40 years, and I swear he's managed to age more gracefully than Clinton. 



haxxiy 5 days ago

Either tomorrow or Sunday we'll be getting the final Selzer Iowa poll, which is probably the last relevant poll of this cycle.

In both 2016 and 2020, they were Trump +7, so we'll see if something changes.



 

 

 

 

 

Cerebralbore101 5 days ago
sc94597 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Who overestimated Republican chances? I remember Biden being up in the polls nationally in 2020.

I do understand that polls can be wrong but basically come out to have a more correct aggregate if enough polls are wrong in both directions. And vice versa.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats

If you were looking at polling averages that included Republican polls, “you were looking at a completely different election than we were looking at,” he added.

When Rosenberg stripped out the partisan polling, he foresaw an election in which New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania were leaning Democrat, Nevada was too close to call, and Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin were leaning a little Republican. That’s consistent with what actually transpired.

 

As to the second sentence, there is no binary of "being wrong" and "being right" here. The point of polling isn't to get it exactly right at the individual poll level, but to create an aggregate picture that better reflects the population group that we want to estimate. If we cut-off the tails due to the individual poll being potentially biased (but without showing it), which is what pollsters seem to be doing currently (because of the rating system), we can possibly lose part of the picture and can have a worse aggregate because of it. This is called "herding" where the pollsters are refusing to publish results that show a large difference from their priors. It helps their individual rating and error rate, but hurts our over-all predictability. 

https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Herding-508.pdf

What do you mean cut off the tails? This sounds to me like pollsters are more worried about being right than just reporting the poll numbers as is. But being more worried about being right and then adjusting for it would just make you wrong anyway. Either report the poll numbers as is, or find out how you are missing so many different types of voters that your poll is useless.