Reading through Idas summary.

The CMA Expects That Cloud Gaming Will Cannibalise Sales of Games Too (Page 73)

As noted above, given the market is still developing, we also do not have real world evidence of consumer diversion between different options. However, we would expect the evidence on diversion and segmentation between B2P and MGS on console presented above to apply to cloud gaming too, given the point about cannibalising sales holds for cloud gaming too, with the additional option of BYOG—which in practice is similar to B2P for the customer, although with the flexibility to use the game across compatible platforms–not changing that assessment.

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But how? You literally have to buy the game to stream it. You can't stream a GeForce Now title without first buying it.

They must be talking about those who buy the same title on multiple different storefronts but I think that is a tiny portion overall.

The CMA Now Considers That Parts of ABK Content Will Be Available on Subscription Services (Page 86)

We are of the view that the assessment of the likelihood of Activision's content becoming available on MGS services or cloud gaming services is best carried out within the competitive assessment. For the reasons set out in our competitive assessment, we consider that absent the Merger, in the foreseeable future, Activision 'day and date' content would become available on cloud gaming services, but not on MGS services on gaming consoles, at least for Activision's most valuable games. However, we consider that Activision would likely place increasingly valuable parts of its gaming catalogue on MGS services as these services continue to grow.

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"Likely" more guessing.

According to MS, Nintendo (Switch) Has a Lower Proportion of Young Gamers Than Playstation and Xbox (Page 101)

In response to the suggestion that Nintendo's offering is likely different to other consoles by virtue of its target audience, Microsoft submitted that Nintendo does not just target a family-friendly audience, and instead offers a broader range of 'mature' content than Xbox which are also actively marketed. Microsoft stated that several of Nintendo Switch's latest exclusives have been non 'family-friendly' games and have received mature ratings. Microsoft also submitted data showing that the distribution of gamers by age on all three consoles is similar, to further substantiate that Nintendo caters to a similar audience as Xbox and PlayStation. It also submitted that, according to the same data, on average the Switch has a lower proportion of young gamers [REDACTED] than SIE and Microsoft's consoles.

However, Data Shows That Switch's Most Popular Games Tend to be Targeted at a Family Audience (Page 106)

The above evidence suggests that the Switch is differentiated from PlayStation and Xbox. We note the Parties' submission above that the distribution of gamers by age on the Switch is not very different to Xbox or PlayStation. We also note that the Switch offers some content for a mature audience. However, the technical differences noted above mean that users do not generally play certain types of games on the Switch which are more popular on Xbox and PlayStation. The evidence on the extent of overlap between the titles that are popular on each of the consoles also shows that the Switch's most popular titles tend to be targeted at a family audience. We consider that family-friendly content is differentiated and may be more complementary to the other consoles' content. The same evidence also shows that the overlap between the Switch's most popular titles and the most popular titles on each of PlayStation and Xbox is low compared to the corresponding overlap between PlayStation and Xbox. Therefore, we consider that while the Switch may be a substitute to either PlayStation or Xbox for some gamers, overall it is likely to be less so.

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I could actually buy this, it's like CMA is naive to how many f*cking children play CoD and Fortnite, Lol.

CoD is targeted at 18+, it doesn't mean shit, it's mostly teenagers playing it, Lol.

Pokemon is targeted at children, it's largely played by adults though.

Reminds me of the meme, Lol.

Reminds me of something funny, I actually went halves with my grandma to buy my nieces a Switch, I gave them a bunch of games too.

Barely touched it, maybe a few times across years, what do they play though? F*cking Fortnite and Roblox 24/7

That's unfortunate for Redfall and the timing creates a perfect storm for MS and Xbox. I'll still play it later but I won't toss aside the other ones I'm yet to finish to jump on this one, hopefully when I'm ready for it it will have a few updates that create an overall better experience.
Judging by the reaction I think this title should have adopted Grounded Style alpha release and a lower price point and built a community through frequent updates and added content.

I think we are close enough to the June event for bingo cards

The CMA Didn’t Consider the Agreement With Nintendo as Evidence That MS Was Interested in Distributing Cod to More Platforms Because the Agreement Was Entered During the Review Process (Page 186)

Regarding the Nintendo agreement, in addition to noting that this theory of harm is primarily focussed on SIE for reasons already explained, we also consider the points discussed in the ability assessment regarding the uncertainty created by certain terms of this agreement also apply to our incentive analysis. With regards to Microsoft's submission that this agreement demonstrates a general intention to distribute CoD on more consoles, we note that this agreement has been entered into during the course of our Merger investigation (and those of other authorities). We therefore do not consider this is reliable evidence of what Microsoft's incentives would otherwise be in the ordinary course.

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Probably fair to have scepticism here.

MS Considers That Cloud Gaming on Mobile Is Unlikely to Be Common Due to the Increase in Computational Power of Mobile Devices (Page 196)

It submitted that cloud gaming on mobile devices had been unsuccessful, citing the performance of Fortnite on xCloud as an example of difficulty in attracting and retaining gamers. It also submitted that with the increasing computational power of mobile devices, many gaming companies are increasingly developing native mobile games, meaning there is unlikely to be material demand for cloud gaming on mobile devices (which Microsoft also submitted depends on the user having a stable internet connection).

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Agreed with Microsoft here, as phones increase in power, Cloud is becoming more irrelevant, and phones are increasing in power by a lot.

Then we look at handhelds, Asus is releasing an absolute beast, you don't need Cloud for that.

It's hard to see where Cloud stands if on-the-go devices become natively powerful enough for native ports.

And yes, it depends on ISPs, Cloud Gaming has nowhere to go until ISPs get serious about improving their internet and removing data caps.

In July/August 2022, MS Was Discussing Opportunities in VR (Page 198)

Emails from [REDACTED] in July/August 2022, primarily discussing opportunities in VR, note the opportunities and Microsoft's strength in cloud. In the emails he states that he sees [REDACTED]. He also notes that in relation to Microsoft's game development studios, [REDACTED].

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Interesting tid-bit.

A Cloud Gaming Provider Reached Profitability in 2022, Having Started in 2019; Expects Cloud Gaming Being Common in a Decade (Page 201)

Another provider [REDACTED] submitted that it had reached profitability in 2022 having started operating in 2019, although this excludes hardware expenses. It stated that it has high capital expenditure due to hardware investments, and that a hardware solution with efficient balance between cost and performance is key to profitability in cloud gaming. This provider also stated that cloud gaming will be the main way users access gaming content in 7-10 years.

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Excluding hardware expenses is a bit deceptive and a big fat doubt on Cloud Gaming being the main way users access gaming content in 10 years.

Third Party Publishers Doesn’t Seem So Sure About the Impact of Cloud Gaming in the Short-Mid Term (Pages 202 - 203)

A third party publisher [REDACTED] indicated that it did not expect cloud gaming to replace console in the near future, but that it would become an alternative for some consumers. It noted that it has not yet reached mass adoption, with one of the main reasons being that it can still be associated with 'lag' or latency. It described how to replace console, cloud gaming services needed to prove that the latency question has been addressed, and that internet coverage and data plans need to improve. It stated that it is interested in developing games for cloud gaming services where the 'quality of service is there' with respect to eg latency and bandwidth, [REDACTED].

Another third party publisher [REDACTED] stated that it thought it likely that cloud gaming can support a transition away from PC and console gaming, although noting that is still an emerging technology and its development is associated with uncertainties, and it is therefore difficult to estimate approximate timescales. It described the main challenges for such a transition as mainly technical, including the requirement for low latency.

Other major third party publishers also expressed opinions about the future development of cloud gaming.

(a) [REDACTED] noted that cloud gaming is a developing technology and that if it continues to develop it will likely further increase the competitive nature of game development and benefit consumers unable to purchase the hardware for console or PC gaming. It also noted the need for stable, high-speed internet access.

(b) [REDACTED] stated that cloud gaming is still nascent, and cloud gaming service providers are currently in the early adopter stage. It noted that in deciding whether to publish on a cloud gaming service it would, among other things, evaluate whether it has the capacity to provide users with a good gaming experience. It also noted that it has published games on GFN and xCloud.

 [REDACTED] described cloud gaming as still nascent. It stated that it would consider the in-game player experience including latency when evaluating opportunities to publish a game on a cloud gaming service, and has published a select number of games on GFN, xCloud and Stadia. It also stated that it thinks cloud gaming offers one possible route to device agnostic gaming in the future.

(d) [REDACTED] stated that is likely that cloud gaming services will grow especially in markets with free fast internet access and low console penetration. It noted that in the UK 'machine gaming' (ie on console or PC) is most popular as there is no latency. It described cloud gaming as being early in its life cycle, and that as a rough guess it could be 10-15 years before cloud gaming replaces consoles.

(e) [REDACTED] stated that it did not think it was likely that cloud gaming would overtake console gaming in the next five years due to latency concerns. It however stated that it did anticipate that cloud gaming will be a viable alternative to native devices in major markets within five years.

MS Didn’t Agree With the Shares in the Cloud Gaming Market (60-70%) Because It’s Not a Standalone Cloud Gaming Service. However, the Cma Believes That a Significant Proportion of Game Pass Ultimate Users Are Attracted to It Due to Cloud Gaming and That They Would Be Willing to Pay Extra for It (Page 216 - 217)

The Parties submitted that shares of supply analysis is misleading and overstates Microsoft's strength as [REDACTED], and it is therefore not comparable to standalone cloud gaming services such as GFN. Whilst it is not possible to determine how many users xCloud would have as a standalone service, the evidence described above indicates that cloud gaming attracts users to XGPU and that a significant proportion ([REDACTED]%) of users would be willing to pay extra for it, even though they already have access to offline play, which suggests for those customers, streaming and offline play are not substitutes, and these customers may be interested in cloud gaming as a standalone service (although we recognise that it is difficult to fully separate Microsoft's ability to 'upsell' xCloud to Game Pass customers from Microsoft's ability to compete for stand-alone xCloud customers). In any case our concern is about Microsoft's future position based on our assessment of its strength, and its substantial number of users now indicates that it may continue to attract a large number of users as cloud gaming grows.

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This one deserves its own post, the CMA are absolutely cuckoo for genuinely believing this, it's bad enough that they came to the determination that xCloud has 60%-70% of the market because it's attached to Game Pass Ultimate and they're using Ultimate's market share as the % but to also suggest that a significant portion of Game Pass Ultimate users are attracted to it because of Cloud Gaming is bonkers and hilarious.

I should run a poll, I bet even if you ran a poll among enthusiasts, over 90% would say they don't give a shit about xCloud and they definitely weren't attracted to Game Pass Ultimate for xCloud, it's far more likely and sensible to think that they were attracted to Game Pass Ultimate due to Xbox Live Gold + Game Pass but once they were in the ecosystem they gave xCloud a try-out at some period.

Even IF we agree that a significant was attracted to GPU due to xCloud...That still doesn't make the market 60%-70%, Lmao. That makes it a "significant" portion of Game Pass Ultimate 25m users but what is that significant portion? If 25m = 60-70% of the market then a significant portion of 25m would still be less than 60-70% of the market.

I should also run a poll if people would be willing to pay extra for xCloud, Lol.

CMA, it's not complicated, just look at the MAU of xCloud and there's your ceiling. It'd likely be even less as a paid standalone service.

This ain't Family Plan. 😠

E3 Probably...

https://twitter.com/GyoJvfr/status/1653343398101757953?t=BsBJO0TR2ib0aJTiIOUCiA&s=19

Hum not sure if this is true but well...
The Twitt is in French but basically, Microsoft did not believe in the game and Arkane Lyon is working on a more ambitious game.

I love Arkane Lyon (not because I'm French, but I think they came up with some really unique and good games); so I'm happy to learn about this new game but at the same time; I feel really sorry if Microsoft just let the project they did not believe finish for no reason. Why not cancel it...

Yet again... I think the game is really fine :D I like it; took a break of it to start my first Age Of Wonders 4 game right now; but will keep going tonight.

Random Twitter Accounts = Mountain of Salt

But uh, I'm confused what the connection is, Lyon and Austin are independent from each other, Lyon is Deathloop and Austin is Redfall.

We know Lyon is working on their next game already, I mean, they released Deathloop almost two years ago, Lol.

Cancelling it would be bad because the developers are clearly proud of their work still, for Microsoft to come in and cancel years of work would cause resentment from Austin to Xbox and likely cause departures, as happens almost all the time when a project is cancelled.