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Spade said:

Kinda a 4D chess move to publicly cry out about COD when they really cared about cloud.

Insane to block a deal based on crystal ball predictions of a future market, by that logic, you can block pretty much every acquisition in a nascent market, Lol. Far too much power, CAT HAS to side against CMA on this. The maths simply doesn't support them either.

Kind of wish Microsoft dropped it but at the same time I 100% understand why they're fighting it, the conclusion is completely irrational and it sets a very bad precedent which could also hurt Microsoft in other acquisitions. Not to mention, it's worth it financially, Lol.

Not just for Microsoft though, blocking an acquisition based on speculation for future markets which might not even exist is a very dangerous precedent to set for the tech industry and M&A's and in fact damaging to certain nascent markets which grow via acquisitions.

Look at the points for blocking it.

• It did not sufficiently cover different cloud gaming service business models, including multigame subscription services.
• It was not sufficiently open to providers who might wish to offer versions of games on PC operating systems other than Windows.
• It would standardise the terms and conditions on which games are available, as opposed to them being determined by the dynamism and creativity of competition in the market, as would be expected in the absence of the merger.

#2 and #3 is crazy for future acquisitions, if they let those stand then this will expand beyond just Cloud Gaming and hurt Microsoft's ability to make acquisitions anywhere. Microsoft pretty much has to try to fight this until the end, I doubt even Phil can convince them out of this now if he wanted to, Lol.

Bobby waiting for that $3bn to enter his pockets though, Lol.

Meh. At least Starfield is on the horizon, Lol. But we won't see Microsoft doing any major money-hats or acquisitions until this is done.



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Zippy6 said:
shikamaru317 said:

I think you're right. I've been suspicious for awhile that Xbox may be self-sabotaging supply in order to give Sony a hugely better Holiday season and 1st quarter 2023 than Xbox, just so that Xbox looks like a sad wounded puppy in the eyes of the regulators, in order to help get this acquisition through. If Xbox looks like it's getting curbstomped by Sony in the 2 most recent quarters, the regulators might see it and be more inclined to think that Xbox needs ABK in order to compete. What if they've just been storing up tons of Diablo 4 and Starfield Series X bundles, instead of selling those Series X chips in Q1 and Q2, just to make Xbox look wounded, then they unleash those units as soon as the acquisition is closed, in June for Diablo bundle and September for the Starfield bundle? And if they announce a Series S price cut down to $250 on the June Xbox showcase too, even better, it needs a sales boost too. Would be great to have a huge Q3 and Q4 after how poor the first two quarters of the year are looking to be. 

I really don't buy the idea that Microsoft self-sabotaged hardware sales on purpose. For one I don't think they have ever directly mentioned 2023 sales to the CMA so it seems a bit of a silly move in the off-chance that they look at it and it is decisive in their final decision. Especially as the first time Microsoft has publicly acknowledged a decline for Q3 themselves was the day before the deadline. But secondly and more importantly their growth forecast for this current quarter is again predicting hardware being down YoY. I think there is a genuine problem.

They are forecasting "low to mid teens" growth for content and services in this current quarter but "mid to high single digits" growth in gaming revenue as a whole. So a range of 11-16% for content and 4%-9% for gaming.

Only the absolute best case scenario for hardware that fits this forecast, maximum gaming growth and minimum content growth, results in growth for hardware. If gaming revenue grew by 9% and Content revenue grew by 11% then hardware would see 2.1% growth. Anything else that fits the numbers Microsoft gave will see a decline in Hardware. So it wouldn't seem a massive improvement to the hardware situation is imminent.

FY23 Q4 Forecast Possibilities

If we continue to drop the "mid to high single digits" growth for gaming below 7% it obviously just gets even worse for hardware. Unless MS is knowingly putting out false forecasts which I believe would be illegal then they are not expecting hardware to suddenly return to growth.

Do you honestly believe that if there was a genuine problem with their manufacturing line, Bloomberg (and the whole media, actually) wouldn't be all over it by now? 

I only see two options for this 1) They are intentionally not manufacturing enought units, or 2)The demand is simply not there.

And about their forecast; companies very rarely get those numbers down to a T (they didn't for this forecast) so just because they are forecasting a growth of about 4%-9% for gaming, doesn't mean the actual numbers can't end up being either above or below those expectations. Furthemore, the fac that they keep not giving guidelines for hardware tells me that they 100% know that it is going to be down YoY, so that also tells me that they 100% know the reason why it is going to be down.



Ryuu96 said:
Spade said:

Kinda a 4D chess move to publicly cry out about COD when they really cared about cloud.

Insane to block a deal based on crystal ball predictions of a future market, by that logic, you can block pretty much every acquisition in a nascent market, Lol. Far too much power, CAT HAS to side against CMA on this. The maths simply doesn't support them either.

Kind of wish Microsoft dropped it but at the same time I 100% understand why they're fighting it, the conclusion is completely irrational and it sets a very bad precedent which could also hurt Microsoft in other acquisitions. Not to mention, it's worth it financially, Lol.

Not just for Microsoft though, blocking an acquisition based on speculation for future markets which might not even exist is a very dangerous precedent to set for the tech industry and M&A's and in fact damaging to certain nascent markets which grow via acquisitions.

Look at the points for blocking it.

• It did not sufficiently cover different cloud gaming service business models, including multigame subscription services.
• It was not sufficiently open to providers who might wish to offer versions of games on PC operating systems other than Windows.
• It would standardise the terms and conditions on which games are available, as opposed to them being determined by the dynamism and creativity of competition in the market, as would be expected in the absence of the merger.

#2 and #3 is crazy for future acquisitions, if they let those stand then this will expand beyond just Cloud Gaming and hurt Microsoft's ability to make acquisitions anywhere. Microsoft pretty much has to try to fight this until the end, I doubt even Phil can convince them out of this now if he wanted to, Lol.

Bobby waiting for that $3bn to enter his pockets though, Lol.

Meh. At least Starfield is on the horizon, Lol. But we won't see Microsoft doing any major money-hats or acquisitions until this is done.

What was the provider that MS did not offer the deal to? Amazon? Maybe should have done that if so... 



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Spade said:
Ryuu96 said:

Insane to block a deal based on crystal ball predictions of a future market, by that logic, you can block pretty much every acquisition in a nascent market, Lol. Far too much power, CAT HAS to side against CMA on this. The maths simply doesn't support them either.

Kind of wish Microsoft dropped it but at the same time I 100% understand why they're fighting it, the conclusion is completely irrational and it sets a very bad precedent which could also hurt Microsoft in other acquisitions. Not to mention, it's worth it financially, Lol.

Not just for Microsoft though, blocking an acquisition based on speculation for future markets which might not even exist is a very dangerous precedent to set for the tech industry and M&A's and in fact damaging to certain nascent markets which grow via acquisitions.

Look at the points for blocking it.

• It did not sufficiently cover different cloud gaming service business models, including multigame subscription services.
• It was not sufficiently open to providers who might wish to offer versions of games on PC operating systems other than Windows.
• It would standardise the terms and conditions on which games are available, as opposed to them being determined by the dynamism and creativity of competition in the market, as would be expected in the absence of the merger.

#2 and #3 is crazy for future acquisitions, if they let those stand then this will expand beyond just Cloud Gaming and hurt Microsoft's ability to make acquisitions anywhere. Microsoft pretty much has to try to fight this until the end, I doubt even Phil can convince them out of this now if he wanted to, Lol.

Bobby waiting for that $3bn to enter his pockets though, Lol.

Meh. At least Starfield is on the horizon, Lol. But we won't see Microsoft doing any major money-hats or acquisitions until this is done.

What was the provider that MS did not offer the deal to? Amazon? Maybe should have done that if so... 

Amazon never made a single objection to the deal.

Amazon also doesn't even put their own 1st parties onto Luna.

I doubt Luna will survive for long.



Let's say CAT sides against CMA. Surely CMA has to re-evaluate their reasoning for blocking and actually address any arguments Microsoft presented in their appeal. So they can't say like "yeah we already came to a final conclusion previously so fuck your fancy facts".

It's already baffling enough that the same authority will make the decision on appeal :P



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I wish anyone here the best of luck when venturing out of empire today lmao. I loled.



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Quite frankly if this was the reason why then it is really typical British attitude isn't it? How can CMA justify acting like a worldwide regulator, demanding concessions to apply worldwide but also in the same sentence say "we're too lazy to monitor anything so we'll just block all behavioural remedies" without taking into considering what the rest of the world thinks?

If this was a major factor in blocking the deal then my response would be for CMA to never demand that concessions apply worldwide again if they can't be bothered to put the work in, ultimately, the decision likely remains the same but I hate the arrogant "we'll decide for everyone else" attitude on display here.



Ryuu96 said:

CMA mention about wanting the remedies to apply worldwide so I assume xCloud would have to be killed worldwide too, CMA is acting like a worldwide regulator and deciding on behalf of everyone else whilst not wanting to bother to monitor behavioural remedies, Lol.

Just do it at this stage, ironically CMA would end up damaging the Cloud Gaming market but what is the point for Microsoft to keep investing in it at this stage.

Imagine if Sony was blocked from acquiring a well known VR developer because Microsoft may enter the VR market at some point, maybe, it's a growing market!

Feels a bit like FTC's failed block attempt on Meta acquiring a VR Fitness App, Lol. Except maybe worse because the Cloud Gaming market is barely a market right now.

Yeah I'm thinking CMA may want their decision to apply worldwide but they can still only make it if that market in UK is impacted.



KiigelHeart said:

Let's say CAT sides against CMA. Surely CMA has to re-evaluate their reasoning for blocking and actually address any arguments Microsoft presented in their appeal. So they can't say like "yeah we already came to a final conclusion previously so fuck your fancy facts".

It's already baffling enough that the same authority will make the decision on appeal :P

Yes, they have to "fix" their mistake and then make another judgement on the case using the correction.

Depends what/if CAT deems to be a mistake, usually the bar is irrationality on data, or a bad procedure, as an example, CMA hid some market data from Facebook which CAT said they shouldn't have done, CMA corrected it but still ultimately blocked their attempted acquisition of Giphy.

I don't know of any cases where CAT has outright said to CMA that their market data/interpretation of the data is trash, Lol.



Spade said:

I wish anyone here the best of luck when venturing out of empire today lmao. I loled.

Yeah, I'm not, I can imagine how insufferable it will be, Lol.

Fuck da Mod tag. I've got enough to deal with elsewhere, Empire & Ukraine are mah focus.