The US recently sent Ukraine its first batch of new long-range precision bombs with the potential to strike deep within Russian-occupied territory. Despite the weapons’ extended range, however, Ukraine won’t be able to use them to hit military targets inside Russia itself. Why? The US won’t allow it out of fear that American weapons taking out targets within Russia could escalate the conflict.
From American bombs to British and French cruise missiles, Kyiv’s Western partners provide their most potent weapons on the condition that Ukraine only use them within its own borders (including Crimea; the Ukrainian peninsula occupied by Russia since 2014). This restriction is a mistake, and one easily remedied by simply informing Ukraine that it has been lifted. Amid gridlock in Congress and delays in European ammunition production, Kyiv’s Western allies can help Ukraine overnight with this one change in policy.
Limiting Kyiv’s use of Western weapons puts Ukraine in a difficult position because the missiles hitting Ukrainian cities are often launched over Russian territory by planes taking off from airfields inside Russia. The same is true for Russia’s one-way attack drones, which depart bases in Russia only to crash into Ukrainian apartment buildings and explode on impact.
Restricting Ukraine’s use of Western munitions doesn’t entirely prevent strikes inside Russia, but it pushes Kyiv to use more unconventional means – drones, vehicle-borne bombs, and sabotage. Ukraine also uses a limited supply of old, and less precise, Soviet missiles. But Kyiv’s one-way attack drones move slower than Western missiles and bombs, which can make them more vulnerable to Russian air defenses. And when debris from intercepted drones falls on Russian cities, it feeds Putin’s propaganda machine. Clearly, more precise Western weaponry will reduce collateral damage in Russia, and reduce civilian casualties.
While Ukraine is working hard to develop its own long range missiles, it will take time for them to be ready for widespread use on the battlefield. Meanwhile, Western weapons have proven effective when used on Russian military bases in occupied Ukrainian territory, where Kyiv has permission to use munitions like US-supplied ATACMS and cruise missiles from France and the UK. Strikes with these weapons have leveled Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters, wrecked a Russian submarine, and destroyed dozens of Russian helicopters. In response, the Kremlin has moved several of its valuable warships and aircraft out of occupied Ukraine and into bases and ports in Russia.
Restrictions on Kyiv’s use of Western weapons are a gift of particular value to Moscow because Russia has far more aircraft than they have hangars to hold them. This leaves valuable military planes and helicopters out in the open. The Kremlin knows that many of its aircraft are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, which is why Moscow’s forces have taken to painting flat aircraft decoys at their air bases. These decoys don’t look very convincing when viewed in high-resolution satellite imagery, but they could mislead Ukrainian attack drones reliant on basic cameras. Advanced Western weapons are less likely to have this issue.
Western officials worry that their weapons being used on Russian territory will lead to escalation – even “Armageddon”– or feed into Putin’s propaganda machine, which paints Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine as a war against the West. But fears of such escalation are unfounded. Russia already claims, without publishing evidence, that Western munitions have been used in attacks on targets inside Russian territory.
When explosions rocked the Russian city of Belgorod late last year, the Kremlin baselessly blamed Ukraine’s use of Czech-supplied weapons. When a transport plane was shot down over Russian airspace, the Kremlin asserted that a US-supplied air defense system was used. Meanwhile, Russia has not hesitated to lob North Korean missiles and Iranian drones at Ukraine. Russian missiles have also violated the airspace of Poland – a Nato member– before striking Ukraine.
Ukraine is fighting an existential war and Kyiv’s victory against the increasingly dangerous Putin is critical for the security of Europe, of Nato, and of the United States. But aid to support that victory has consistently come a day late and a weapon system short. Ukraine will have a difficult year fending off Russian attacks while building the capacity to retake occupied territory. Putin has made it clear that he has no interest in negotiations. Western partners should trust Ukraine to protect its citizens and not risk its allies with the weapons we provide.