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"Ukraine relies on U.S. support in many areas. Without it, Ukraine will likely have to retreat in some places faster than before. But I don't think it will be catastrophic or that everything will collapse [on the front]," Ivan Stupak, a military expert and ex-officer of Ukraine's SBU Security Service, told The Moscow Times.
Stupak said that Ukraine depends on U.S. support in various ways but warned against exaggerating its impact on the front.
"We rely on U.S. assistance in multiple areas, including air defense systems like the Patriot missiles. However, these are not primarily used on the front lines, they protect cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv from missile attacks," Stupak said. "If these missiles are no longer available, our infrastructure and civilian population will suffer — this means hundreds, possibly thousands, of civilian casualties among Ukrainians — but the military situation on the front lines will not change drastically," he added.
According to Stupak, the shortage of 155mm NATO-standard artillery shells is another pressing issue. While Ukraine has ramped up domestic production since a previous delay in U.S. aid in 2024, concerns remain about the reliability of locally manufactured shells.
Another critical area affected by the aid pause might be the supply of HIMARS rockets, Stupak noted. Yet he said that while these rocket systems played a significant role in the early months of the war, they have become vulnerable to drone attacks. "For the past six months, there has been almost no public information of their use," Stupak said.
Alshansky also pointed out that while the suspension of U.S. aid is significant, it is difficult to assess its full impact on the front without Europe's response. "If we have some clarity on what Europe is willing to do for Ukraine's security, then we can make calculations. For now, it's too early — any estimate would be speculation."
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