Right now i upped my 155 million LTD prediction by march 2027 to 157 million LTD by march 2027. If this FY is even average, i might up it to 160 million+ but i am not quite there yet.

Posting here my post from the Switch vs DS in the US article:

Let's say Europe sold 130k Switches in January, bringing Switch's sales up to 149.18. Now let's assume an avarage baseline of 400k for the Switch from February to October and 2 million units sold through November and December. We have 154.78 million. Now a 200k from January/2026 to October/2026 and 1.2 million units through November/2026 to December 2026. We have 157.98 million. If it is still ongoing in 2027, let's apply a harsher decline in sales: 80k avarage baseline from January to October and 900k though November and December: 159.68 million.

I'm usually pessimistic in my predictions and the numbers end up being a little bit higher, and I started this projections from VGChartz numbers. If I had started from the shipments numbers from Nintendo's report, it would have passed 160 million mark for shipped Switch. Believing that the Switch won't pass the PS2 isn't craziness nor the opposite. I think that today's scenario is very unclear to know in which side of the 160 M mark the Switch will land, but frankly, it has always been like this and I think that the possibility of the Switch passing the PS2 will remain unclear until the very end, like when people used to follow DS's sales to see if it would pass the 33 million mark

Tbh at this point it can just leg it out to 160m 3DS went on to sell a further 7-8m or so after Switch launched after all and mind you Switch can still get a price cut having gone it's entire run with out a universal one.

people still doubting Switch
It will be #1 after 2025 holidays

Do you think the economic situation during Trump's administration will hinder Switch's chances of passing the PS2? If prices of things go up, people won't be willing to spend their money on trivial things such as video games, they will prioritize basic and essential stuffs. On the other hand, we could have a scenario where the videogame market would be impacted only on higher costing products, such as the upcoming Switch 2. In this case, cheaper products like the Switch 1 would benefit from this

Nintendo doesn’t price increase their consoles. Especially their old consoles. They aren’t Sony.

If anything Switch 2 could get the impact of it. But it’ll still be cheaper than the competitors.

If the tariffs have any significant effect, then it will help Switch 1 sales.  This is because if it harms Switch 2 sales, then people will just stick with the Switch 1 longer.   See also: PS2 sales after PS3 release.

Yes but ps3 was on another level of absurd, kinda ps5 pro style. Switch 2 won't release above ps5 digital price, that's almost sure.

Plus, it won't impact europe and japan sales.

How likely do you guys think Pokémon Legends Z-A will push the Switch 1 to 160 million if it’s releasing late 2025 possibly during the holidays?

We cannot say where Switch will land in the end but one thing is for sure: 157 million is the absolute floor for the Switch now! Lets face it: The Switch will be ~ 152 million by the end of march wich will be about 11 million shipped for FY8! I just cannot see the Switch selling below 4 million this FY (down 60%+) wich pushes it to 156 million by march 2026. Anything less than a million for 2026/27 is basically impossible= 157 million. But there is a problem: When Switch 2 releases, Switch will be at ~ 153- 154 million, probably around DS level! Usually Nintendo handhelds sold ~ 7 million units after their sucessor came out. At the most pessimistic scenario i see 153 million when the sucessor arrives and another 3 million this FY+ another million next FY wich would be 4 million post Switch 2 launch sales! That would be worse than the any other Nintendo handheld after their sucessor's launch and i just can't see that. I predict 4 million minimum for this FY alone and another million for next.