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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

zorg1000 on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

Ship numbers are only official numbers we have, and at end of March 2019. Switch will have around 36-37m shipped units, and around half of number that you mentioned (75-80m).

Keep in mind that all Nintendo numbers are ship (sold to retailers), so predictions for years should be for ship units, espacily when we talking about LT predictions because at end for any console ship units is equal sales units at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

oh pls are you kidding me? Why should I be talkin shipped numbers when we are clearly talking sold to consumers. 

I am and have been talking about sold numbers not shipped. And in the same site you linked they have the switch there at 22M or so. I am using VGC numbers like we all have used it for every other platform. And I strongly doubt all the people that have been replying me and putting up FY numbers were talking about shipped numbers either. Or not those are all some really small shipment numbers. 

Look I can't be having to similar but totally different conversations at the same time. I am talking about sold to consumers. You know, the stuff NPD and famitsu tracks. Not shipped numbers simply cause those will always be higher. And its simple... nintendo said they wanna ship 20M for the FY. That will take total shipments to 37M by march 2019. Unless there are adjustments. 

I've been talking shipped this whole time too.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Kerotan on 17 December 2018

Great to see this thread blast past 500 posts. Interest in NPD is coming back.



Miyamotoo on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

Ship numbers are only official numbers we have, and at end of March 2019. Switch will have around 36-37m shipped units, and around half of number that you mentioned (75-80m).

Keep in mind that all Nintendo numbers are ship (sold to retailers), so predictions for years should be for ship units, espacily when we talking about LT predictions because at end for any console ship units is equal sales units at end.

 

oh pls are you kidding me? Why should I be talkin shipped numbers when we are clearly talking sold to consumers. 

I am and have been talking about sold numbers not shipped. And in the same site you linked they have the switch there at 22M or so. I am using VGC numbers like we all have used it for every other platform. And I strongly doubt all the people that have been replying me and putting up FY numbers were talking about shipped numbers either. Or not those are all some really small shipment numbers. 

Look I can't be having to similar but totally different conversations at the same time. I am talking about sold to consumers. You know, the stuff NPD and famitsu tracks. Not shipped numbers simply cause those will always be higher. And its simple... nintendo said they wanna ship 20M for the FY. That will take total shipments to 37M by march 2019. Unless there are adjustments. 

I thought I was very clear? Ship numbers are only official numbers we have, ship numbers espacily have sense when we talk LT numbers and we compared them to other platforms, for instance all numbers from link down (for every platform from that link) are shipped numbers. Like I wrote, ship numbers equal sales numbers at end in any case.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html



Intrinsic on 17 December 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Intrinsic said:

Of curse not. By march next year which will be its "first two years" it would have sold around 32M. And unless something greatly changes it will average around 800k sales a month up until around november and december.

So lets not get ahead of ourselves here. 

Ship numbers are only official numbers we have, and at end of March 2019. Switch will have around 36-37m shipped units, and around half of number that you mentioned (75-80m).

Keep in mind that all Nintendo numbers are ship (sold to retailers), so predictions for years should be for ship units, espacily when we talking about LT predictions because at end for any console ship units is equal sales units at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Sigh...

Don't know how else to say this.

I have NEVER been in a debate about how many consoles nintendo will ship.

I am using VGC sold numbers for nintendo. Whose numbers for nintendo and every other platform is the closest approximation of global sales we have that constantly gets adjusted whenever more sold to consumers numbers are given. 

But indulge me..... on nintendos IR site they have sales numbers for the NS at 22M as at end of september. Are you saying those are also tracking shipped numbers? Cause I believe they are not. And if that is the case then no, shipped numbers is not the only official numbers we have.



Intrinsic on 17 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

I've been talking shipped this whole time too.

Wow that makes no sense.....

I am srry but i think you are flat out lying now. lets looks at your numbers.

Here are my rough estimates for Switch's launch and first 4 full fiscal years

2.74m

15.05m

17-20m

15-20m

12-15m

And you are honestly saying that you are talking abut yearly shipments here not sold?

And if that is the case and I am talking about sld then doesn't that mean I have been right all along? Cause shipped and sld is not the same thing. Cause I am certain more than 72M 3DS has been shipped.



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flashfire926 on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I've been talking shipped this whole time too.

Wow that makes no sense.....

I am srry but i think you are flat out lying now. lets looks at your numbers.

Here are my rough estimates for Switch's launch and first 4 full fiscal years

2.74m

15.05m

17-20m

15-20m

12-15mAnd you are honestly saying that you are talking abut yearly shipments here not sold?

And if that is the case and I am talking about sld then doesn't that mean I have been right all along? Cause shipped and sld is not the same thing. Cause I am certain more than 72M 3DS has been shipped.

How is he lying? He was always talking about shipments. The figures he gave (2.74M, 15.05M) are for fy 2016 and fy 2017 shipments. It was quite clear he was talking this way from the starting, no lying involved.

And I was under the assumption that we were looking at Nintendos shipped numbers for our bet too.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

zorg1000 on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I've been talking shipped this whole time too.

Wow that makes no sense.....

I am srry but i think you are flat out lying now. lets looks at your numbers.

Here are my rough estimates for Switch's launch and first 4 full fiscal years

2.74m

15.05m

17-20m

15-20m

12-15m

And you are honestly saying that you are talking abut yearly shipments here not sold?

And if that is the case and I am talking about sld then doesn't that mean I have been right all along? Cause shipped and sld is not the same thing. Cause I am certain more than 72M 3DS has been shipped.

How did you not know I was talking shipped? All of the 3DS numbers I gave and those first 2 Switch numbers are confirmed shipments from Nintendo.

How does any of that show you've been right all along?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic on 17 December 2018
flashfire926 said:

How is he lying? He was always talking about shipments. The figures he gave (2.74M, 15.05M) are for fy 2016 and fy 2017 shipments. It was quite clear he was talking this way from the starting, no lying involved.

And I was under the assumption that we were looking at Nintendos shipped numbers for our bet too.

Then I would definately loose that bet. Because all this time I have been talking sold numbers not shipped.

And further more the site thats been referenced multiple times, there is nowhere does it say that those numbers are shipped. It even says at the bottom that they are consolidated sales. Not shipped.



flashfire926 on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
flashfire926 said:

How is he lying? He was always talking about shipments. The figures he gave (2.74M, 15.05M) are for fy 2016 and fy 2017 shipments. It was quite clear he was talking this way from the starting, no lying involved.

And I was under the assumption that we were looking at Nintendos shipped numbers for our bet too.

Then I would definately loose that bet. Because all this time I have been talking sold numbers not shipped.

Fine, we'll do it your way. VGC numbers it is then.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

Intrinsic on 17 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

How did you not know I was talking shipped? All of the 3DS numbers I gave and those first 2 Switch numbers are confirmed shipments from Nintendo.

How does any of that show you've been right all along?

I have been talking sold to consumers not shipped. And the 75M I have been saying is based on VGC 72M+ number for the 3DS sales. Not shipped. 

And the right all along part.... if the numbers you have been putting up are shipped numbers and I am talking sales then it means that even if 18M are shipped not all of those units will be sold. And as the quarters progress shipments will be adjusted up or down to accommodate buying trends. So by the time the next switch comes along, they very well may have shipped 75M to 80M but it doesn't mean all those would have been sold.