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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

MasonADC said:
CosmicSex said:

What did he say last year?

Something along the lines of the Switch is performing well, then it was outsold 2:1 by the ps4. People took his statement as the Switch would win November, but I don't think he ever said that 

He did say that. He said the switch was performing well and that it might even take november (unless I am mistaken and I am remebering this all wrong).

No one would have been up in arms over someone just saying something else was also selling well. Based on that information everyone pretty much had the switch to win that month and everyone thought a certain person on this site was crazy when he was saying switch would be under 1M.

Then numbers come and not only did the PS4 win but it outsold the switch 2:1. Its kinda hard taking the word of someone that makes that kinda snaffu as fact after that. As the saying goes even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I can understand where or how he had things mixed up though, but it doesnt excuse that he did. PS4 could have made the bulk of its sales for the month over a 4 day period. Someone looking at daily continuous sales can easily take what he is seeing t mean the console that is constantly selling is doing better.



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MasonADC said:
CosmicSex said:

What did he say last year?

Something along the lines of the Switch is performing well, then it was outsold 2:1 by the ps4. People took his statement as the Switch would win November, but I don't think he ever said that 

The same thing happens every year with Adobe's metrics.  And he might have been quoting that as evidence.  No biggie.  I said the same thing this year.  The thing we don't know about Benji is exactly what info he has access too.  It reminds me of VGChartz estimations.  It it boils down to the fact that we don't get the same transparency as a county like Japan.  



About Benji comment, some users here can't take his comments about PS4 is going to do worse than Switch in December and down yoy in November. Hell, even Matt from NPD was blasted because of his prediction stated Switch this year is going to be the first hardware in the US(looks like his prediction is accurate).



Yeah, Benji was right this month. Also all year long, and almost the same last year. But that 1 time he wasn't even wrong but said he might be wrong? Lets talk more about that.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Can we please stop using this faulty logic of " Sony can sell 3 Million if they have enough 199$ spiderman stock " because Nintendo also can sell 10Million of MK8D bundled with enough stock and 50 Million with 199$ price point with a free MK8D.

The reason why Sony can't ship more 199$ spiderman bundled because they already had a set of shipment target for specific promotion bundled during that month.
Now imagine how many Switch will be sold if they decided to release Switch+Smash Ultimate at 199$ during BF and CM.

Both Nintendo and Sony aren't stupid to reduce their revenues because of stupid shipment number wars.

 

Slarvax said:
Yeah, Benji was right this month. Also all year long, and almost the same last year. But that 1 time he wasn't even wrong but said he might be wrong? Lets talk more about that.

100% agree with both of these



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LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Can we please stop using this faulty logic of " Sony can sell 3 Million if they have enough 199$ spiderman stock " because Nintendo also can sell 10Million of MK8D bundled with enough stock and 50 Million with 199$ price point with a free MK8D.

The reason why Sony can't ship more 199$ spiderman bundled because they already had a set of shipment target for specific promotion bundled during that month.
Now imagine how many Switch will be sold if they decided to release Switch+Smash Ultimate at 199$ during BF and CM.

Both Nintendo and Sony aren't stupid to reduce their revenues because of stupid shipment number wars.

Ok. 

Sony can sell a PS4 @ $199 and throw in  first party game for a lot of reasons.

  1. It probably cost them less than $199 to make a PS4 right now and probably has since last year. A simple BOM assessment will make this obvious.
  2. The have a lrge enough install base that could buy the bundled game (over 3M sold in first 3 days) s they would have already made a lot of money from that game.
  3. The bundled game is a first party game. so it cost them nothing to add it.
Nintendo CANNOT sell the switch at $199 right now without biting some sort of loss.
So drop that whole what nintendo can do nonsense. Cause the difference here is that sony CAN actually sell the PS4 at $199 and nintendo can't but sony is choosing not to because they don't have to. 
Further more... having an install base of over 80M makes it even easier for you to do deals like those because besides the added revenue stream the new buyers brings you have an already large base of people to milk.
The reason sony hasn't dropped the PS4 to $199 all this time is simply because they are still selling very well as is. And that says a lot for a 5yr old console. 
So we can say it all day long that if sony shipped this they would sell that because we know its feasible and possible. Nintendo simply can't afford to do that now even if they wanted.


LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Can we please stop using this faulty logic of " Sony can sell 3 Million if they have enough 199$ spiderman stock " because Nintendo also can sell 10Million of MK8D bundled with enough stock and 50 Million with 199$ price point with a free MK8D.

The reason why Sony can't ship more 199$ spiderman bundled because they already had a set of shipment target for specific promotion bundled during that month.
Now imagine how many Switch will be sold if they decided to release Switch+Smash Ultimate at 199$ during BF and CM.

Both Nintendo and Sony aren't stupid to reduce their revenues because of stupid shipment number wars.

Absolutely hell to the no we can't stop saying that.  It is self evident that they didn't meet demand.  Common sense allows you to extract that from observation.  Even so, it is also self evident that they provided the stock relative to their promotion per their own business goals.  These two ideas are not mutually exclusive.   So no we can not stop using plain logic.  

Your claim that PS4 will be behind Xbox One in December reveals your bias and shows how it works against your reason and your ability to observe.  What is your evidence for your idea that December is looking ugly for the PS4? I checked Amazon, BestBuy and GameStop.  PS4 leads Xbox One in all locations.  I can also observe that the Switch is selling the best.  No bias needed.

And finally, we are not going to censor ourselves to fit inside out your obvious bias.  I don't care how you free about the PlayStation, it will continue to sell well. 



What on earth did you guys do to make us be talked about on ERA's NPD thread?



The_Liquid_Laser said:
PS4 - 1500K
Switch - 1450K
XB1 - 1350K

 

tbone51 said:
Results are in


Switch: 1360K
PS4: 1480K
XBO: 1340K


Here's how my prediction went.
Switch: 90k off
PS4: 20k off
XB1: 10k off

total difference:  120k off

I am very happy with that.  I feel I got extremely close to the mark.



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
About Benji comment, some users here can't take his comments about PS4 is going to do worse than Switch in December and down yoy in November. Hell, even Matt from NPD was blasted because of his prediction stated Switch this year is going to be the first hardware in the US(looks like his prediction is accurate).

I think everyone here already knew or expected PS4 to be down YOY in november and lose to switch in december. 

You are really trying to start fires aren't you?

And so what if the switch is the best selling console in NA in 2018? The PS4 has done that for the last 4 years and has now sold almost 30M consoles in NA. What more does sony have to prove?