http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/analyst-gta-iv-cant-be-judged-on-sales/?biz=1

In his latest research note on Take-Two Interactive, UBS analyst Ben Schachter noted that Grand Theft Auto IV is already receiving "very positive early positive buzz." He said, "A review from the official Xbox magazine was apparently leaked on the internet w/a perfect 10 score – our discussions with other reviewers indicate it will likely not be the only one." Schachter estimates that the game will sell at least six million copies this year in the U.S. alone. He also believes sales of the game in the U.S. will represent roughly 60 percent of the worldwide total.

Importantly, Schachter pointed out that GTA IV's success ultimately can't be judged on its sales total, but instead investors should look to the game's attach rate as a proper measure of how it's faring compared to prior iterations. "Investors cannot define success of the game in terms of units of GTA IV sold compared with prior GTA titles. This is because the game can only be sold to consumers who own a console capable of playing the game. To that end, the success of the game is defined by the attach rate (or tie ratio) which equals the number of units sold / the installed base of applicable consoles (in this case Xbox 360 and PS3)," he explained.

Circling back to the positive early buzz and the importance of reviews, Schachter stated that there is definitely some upside in his six million units estimate. "Should Metacritic scores come in above 95, attach rates could rise to 30%+, implying potential U.S. sales of 7-8mm units (scores for the past three GTA titles were 95, 95, and 97). Any attach rate above 26% would beat expectations in our view," he said.

On a worldwide basis, Schachter believes the game could reach about 10.5 million unit sales by the end of this year. "At 6mm units in the U.S., the game would generate ~$360 million in total retail sales (assuming a $60 retail price), at 8mm units, the game would generate $480 million of sales in the U.S., or about 33% upside from current expectations," he added. "Additionally, we expect the game could do similar numbers in Europe, almost doubling our U.S. totals."

Finally, regarding the much talked about pursuit of Take-Two by Electronic Arts, Schachter said that "while the assumed success of GTA helps TTWO's negotiating position, at the end of the day, we continue to believe that ERTS will be able to buy TTWO in the $26-$28 range." The tender offer is set to expire this Friday at midnight. Also, contrary to statements from Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who suggested that an EA buyout could potentially lead to a delay to the release of GTA IV, Schachter commented that any delay would be "extremely unlikely." He said, "GTA IV will almost certainly launch on time (Apr. 29) and meet/possibly exceed expectations."

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I was just talking to my cousin about how gta has always had 90's for scores and now add in an insane multiplayer and how can this game not get all 100's.  Seriously this game should be the highest rated game of all time as it seems like it has it all.  It will be a nice benchmark as the previous gta showed for future games.  If they can pull off the multiplayer then it shows you can have a kick ass single player and with a kick ass multiplayer instead of all those half assed single/multi player that been coming out so far like the darkness, stranglehold, and most recently dark sector.  Seems all those games give you a decent single player and then throw in multiplayer as in add for their game being so danm short and to give their game more legs or percieved value.  Games like GTA move the next generation forward.

I object sales of GTA 4 are the most important thing it has high expectations to live up to and it has to match the earlier versions of GTA and reach a combined total of 15 million on the PS3 and XBox 360 to be considered as a success.

is this some kind of late april fools joke? Did Crazyman write this?

All that matters is the attach rate? Did they seriously write that INVESTORS should look at the attach rate and judge whether it was a successful investment? I'm gonna shoot myself in the face now.

I don't know....I believe that the games shouldn't be judged based on sales alone, per se, but on how many people will be happy about the game once they play it.

Don't get me wrong; I loved GTA III, the first 3-D GTA, but that was because of the ability to do whatever the hell you wanted to without remorse. So far, I have been hearing that it's a lot harder to do that, mainly due to the realism Rockstar was seeking. If that is the case, I don't know if I am going to have the same amount of fun that I did from the other GTA games.

Of course, I also understand that they had to get away from that model in order to make this game look and feel different than the other games (or risk appearing as a stagnant series). But with the rising costs of games and consoles, do you think there will be a huge, huge amount of people buying the game from the main public? Or will it just be the people who already have the consoles? Guess we will find out when it releases, wouldn't we?

(P.S. About the free-roaming exp. found in the previous GTA games that is missing in this GTA game......please let me be wrong about it.....anybody there to tell me that is wrong??)

I do not think a game developer would care much about the attachment rates for the consoles and how many PS3 or 360 consoles the game will shift.
The amount of games that sell is the most important thing, it means more money to the Take-Two company developers.

I think an analyst finally looked at the numbers and realized that there is less than 27.5 Million PS3 and XBox 360 systems sold in North America and Europe, and that it will be a battle for GTA4 to sell 10 Million games on so few systems in 2008.

Well I guess the analyst will think damn the game should be delayed again. So I guess a bigger install base is needed for a GTA game. GTA 4 will sell its big numbers when its launched and sales will drop off.

I don't think it'd be hard for GTAIV to sell ten mil by the end of the year.

By the end of the year, PS3 will be at least 20 mil, and XBOX 360 should be somewhere around that area.

So ten mil out of forty mil isn't that bad, a 25 percent attach rate. Very feasible.

I think pakidan101 is correct. The satisfaction of the gamers that play it is more important. The game is a certain success, but future success will only be determined if the current players will praise it enough in the years to come....
If it is good then GTA5 will sell even more, and that's what investors are after.....

Sales and profit are obviously the most important.  Sales and profit come from user satisfaction / buzz / good marketing / good reviews.

However remember GTA3 / GTA: VC / GTA: SA were all done in the GTA3 engine (albeit enhanced for VA and then again for SA) and that sales, according to VGChartz increased with each new installment (11.6m -> 14.2m -> 15.4m)

GTA4 will get great sales for sure but critically the costs of making "GTA4: Next Title" and "GTA4: Final Title" will be much less as the engine and a lot of the elements will be in place already. Surely it would be stupid for Rockstar not to at least release a second GTA4 game using their existing GTA4 technology this generation. This will come out at a time when both the 360 / PS3 have a bigger userbase and will almost certainly sell more.

If all of GTA4 downloadable content is released by mid 2009 then nothing is stopping "GTA4: Next Title" from being released at some point between Xmas 2009 -> Xmas 2010 (I am guessing Summer 2010). Thats the game which is going to make the rediculous profits and maybe this is why EA are lining up a purchase now. "GTA4: Next Title" will have a lower development cost and higher sales.