Yes and Yes
We won't know until GT5 comes out. GT5p was effectively free to make. It's a subset of the real game, so they were going to invest in it anyway (other then whatever costs were involved in turing an unfinished product into a retail one).
So if GT5p sells 2 million (and it will), and GT5 was going to sell 5 million, but only ended up selling 4 million because GT5p exists, then it's a failure.
In the end, they could make less money because they made this game. That equals failure.
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