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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 73 Game Thread - Is that you, Archer?

spurgeonryan said:
theprof00 said:
And no, again it would have made no difference if you voted trucks or didn't bill nye, because the fact remains from yesterday that no lynch is equal to a mislynch.
The math, which took you 15 posts to understand simple arithmetic, proves that.

 

So total reversal today prof? That's alright, don't answer just keep asking me random questions all day long.

Are you going to explain, or not?

I would think it would be prudent for a townie to analyse the situation as best as posisble and provide evidence when we are at LYLO. It is important that we stay calm an dbe rational, but I don't know why you won't answer this question.

You really make me want to vote you, because this is not townie behavior. It comes off as if you are banking on people NOT actually reading the thread, and just focusing on the buzzwords in order to make the lynch you want.

I don't want to get derailed into this argument with you, just explain to me why this is a total reversal, or I will vote you.



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I WILL push for your lynch if you keep avoiding my questions. You have been warned. If you are a town, act like it.



spurgeonryan said:
Classic scum technique, deny everything to the end and act like nothing the town player says makes sence. Are you reading that out of a book or is it something you remember your mentor Hatmoza doing in past games?

You don't tell people your town power day two because your risk letting the scum have their way with you, as prof has done with zero.

What does the reversal mean? What does I mean! Do you read much?

Yesterday you said that no lynch was the same as a miss lynch. Today you want a no lynch!
Reversal!

What is there not to get? What is the definition of reversal? Do we need a dictionary, surely not I hope.

So you admit you are incapable of explaining why it's a total reversal. Let me breka out the kindergarten math again.

This was the day 1 scenario:
2 mafia 5 town (no lynch)
Mafia kill one night 1- 2mafia 4 town
Town mislynch day 2- 2 mafia 3 town
Mafia kill one night 2- 2 mafia 2 town, game over

2 mafia 5 town (lynch)
town mislynches day 1- 2 mafia 4 town
Mafia kills night 1- 2 mafia 3 town
Town mislynches day 2- 2 mafia 2 town, game over

The reason a lynch is better on day 1 is because we get 2 chances to kill a mafia vs only one chance. Additionally, it gives us an even greater advantage if we get a scum, whereas starting from a no lynch, even if we get a scum day 2, we are then going into day 3 with 2 less townies vs one. I think it's been proven enough times this game that in this particular scenario of 2 mafia 5 town, a lynch day one is better for town. Like you agreed yesterday, zero could have voted for trucks. We could have started day 2 with 1 mafia 4 town. We did get a mafia day 2, but we couldve gotten him day 1.

 

Now then, for today we have 
1 mafia, 3 town. Mislynch
Mislynching today results in 1 mafia 2 town. Even with a supposed cop, it doesn't matter if he correctly finds a scum tonight, because mafia kills a town tonight and then it's game over.

1mafia, 3 town, no lynch
Mafia kills tonight, 1 mafia, 2 town.
We mislynch tomorrow, game over.

The reason why a no lynch benefits town today, is because we will get use out of the supposed cop scan or the supposed doc protection. If we mislynch, we lose all town roles because they don't matter tonight. If we no lynch, we get to use those powers. Additionally, we go into tomorrow with one less suspect.

So now, we can look at who might be killed.
If zero gets killed and flips town, you know that I'm scum. You lynch me, game over town wins.
If I die tonight, I know I will flip town, and you will know that zero is lying. You lynch zero tomorrow, town wins.
If spurge dies tonight, the suspects get narrowed down to zero, prof, and mrP. At which point, zero gets a chance to find scum using his role.
If mrP dies tonight, zero has a 50% chance of finding the scum.

So, no lynching today gets town an extra chance. Lynching on day 1, ALSO gives town an extra chance.
The mislynch vs no lynch on day 1 was about giving the town extra chances to lynch.
The mislynch vs no lynch today is about giving the town extra chances to use their roles to more accurately give town a better lynch tomorrow.

So, no. You are wrong about it being a reversal. lynch day 1 vs no lynch today is the "opposite action", but with different days, and different scenarios, the results both give town a better chance tomorrow.



spurgeonryan said:
To one of your questions, why would you have slammed him for lying? Human nature and you and others have done it many times before! Sometimes you think about and decide someone is probably lying and then you and others sit back and analyze. You have done no analyzing and that post about 5 posts back was your longest all day I believe. You basically laughed off zero and then went for me. Took you a day to even look at my posts, you still did not answer, you just answered the questions with a question.

You see Mr. P, I am explaining everything, prof is explaining nothing. Keep note.

So I would have immediately slammed zero for lying?
Why? 
He correctly gave us trucks on a platter. 
I have reason to believe he's the cop. And I also have reason to believe he's not the cop (because of his guilty on me)
But I can't say for sure what he is, because now, as then, I am still waiting for him to show up and explain himself.

There's no reason to immediately vote zero because he says he has a guilty on me. I know I am town, so I know there's gotta be some other explanation for him saying that, OR he is scum. So, I have to wait until he shows up. Now, If he had said he'd scanned me day 2 and got guilty, THEN I would have insta-voted him because I already didn't believe his claim, and that would have confirmed it. The difference is that he DID actually give us trucks. So that gives me a hesitation because I think, well maybe he is the cop.

What you are saying is that I should have had a knee-jerk reaction as a townie and voted him. But that doesn't make sense. I am a townie, and I know he's wrong, but I don't know WHY he's wrong. It would be far safer, on a day when a single mislynch ends the game, to find all the facts before I try to lynch someone who gave us trucks.



That's it. I'm done. You refuse to acknowledge simple facts, I have proven you wrong twice in your attacks and your posts are nothing but conjecture and buzzwords. Your case against me is as hollow as your head. You will continue to have no reputation when you think this is the kind of play that'll let you win as scum.
vote: spurge

If you guys decide to vote me, this loss is on your heads, not mine.
this is my last post.



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Okay so right now if I had to vote, it would go to Spurge. I'll give zero another day (Or a couple of hours), though I'm going to go under the assumption that he lied about Prof being Scum, 'cause otherwise he would have voted him out asap. Also I can make up my own mind, no need for the "look Mr.P, look" posts.

 

Also taking maths into consideration. If every OP picks mafia at random then the chances of Prof being Mafia three times in a row are astoundingly low. We're talk at the very least 1/50 if not less. He's also playing much more differently then when he was up against you (Spurge) in the last game. I've believed prof to be town this whole game, no need to stop now. His arguments have always been valid and his actions have been backed by good reasoning. 



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Votals:

If this day ended now, it will result in No Lynch

  L-2 L-1 Lynch
 prof  spurge    
 spurge  prof    

With 4 players alive it takes 3 to lynch

Votestory:

spurge votes prof
prof votes spurge



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I have never once mentioned that you're paying any differently, I only mentioned that Prof is playing differently from his last game. Your playstyle is similar to your last game when it came down to you vs Prof. This time though, prof isn't giving up so easy. Now let me get to my own facts:

 

Fact: I read everything, but I'm human and can only keep in mind so much from a wall of text filled of mainly petty name calling and irrelevant info of one's personal life.

Fact: Maths is important. It's like winning the lottery three times in a row. It's already hard to win it one time let alone win it three times right after each other. The fact you've been town for ten straight games goes against you ( It is impressive though )

Fact: Prof's counter arguments have been better, just deal with it.

Fact: I made myself clear that I'm waiting for Zero before making any judgement, both in my previous post and in my posts from yesterday (IRL)

You can cry all you want. You and Prof had an argument and I sided with Prof. I've mainly based this on the fact the Zero is 99℅ lying about Prof being Mafia and that makes him not a scum. Once again I still haven't vired for you.

Yeah he's (Prof) had a history of being Scum, but he's bound to be town at least for one game.




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I've been refreshing the main page constantly for the past hour. Zero, you're killing me here. I seriously can't make up my mind without you.



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A time-limit has been set to friday evening CET, zero has been mod poked