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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 73 Game Thread - Is that you, Archer?

So all in all we can come to the conclusion that names=/ roles? Why would Stefl even do that? I'm sure names were assigned randomly, just as randomly as roles were handed out.



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Yeah he'd be bouncing off the walls knowing he'd won the game all by himself, doubly so for beating the shit talking prof.



theprof00 said:
Yeah he'd be bouncing off the walls knowing he'd won the game all by himself, doubly so for beating the shit talking prof.

So why did he do it?



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Best guess would be that he's pulling a prof and seeing who will vote me.
I bet he did scan me and got town, so he feels like he wasted his scan and is now resorting to a method he doesn't have much experience with.
Either me or he scanned xander



Here's the other thing
We have 4 players left.
If we mislynch, then I MUST protect someone correctly or we lose.
If we no lynch, then I can try to doc again, and we have a better chance at a lynch tomorrow.

Ie, if we lynch, we have to pick between 4 players.
25% chance, because honestly neither myself or zeri are confirmed.
If that fails, then from my viewpoint, I have to protect someone or its game over.

If we no lynch, I have that chance to protect someone, and potentially clear a townie (if nobody dies, then who I targeted is confirmed town)
And then we also get a better lynch attempt tomorrow.

I would say that we are potentially better off no lynching today. It is the safer method.
Tldr scum can't win unless we mislynch



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I honestly don't trust any of you right now



My honest first inclination is that spurge is the final mafia, based on his play this last day. Something feels wrong, like, an aggressiveness that wasn't there before, tension.

But I could also see it being zero, he's been trying to kill me all game. Second, it's weird that he thinks linkz had a role, and based an assumption off of it, when none of us should actually know. And it's true that he could've hammered trucks day one, but didnt. Something about zero makes me extremely uneasy. Like he's grasping at straws. I feel like, maybe he needed trucks in order to make a cop fakeclaim.

And mrp, I just don't know what to think of him. He is playing a lot like he did last game when he was town, but he seems a little too eager to be helpful. I gotta reread



theprof00 said:
Here's the other thing
We have 4 players left.
If we mislynch, then I MUST protect someone correctly or we lose.
If we no lynch, then I can try to doc again, and we have a better chance at a lynch tomorrow.

Ie, if we lynch, we have to pick between 4 players.
25% chance, because honestly neither myself or zeri are confirmed.
If that fails, then from my viewpoint, I have to protect someone or its game over.

If we no lynch, I have that chance to protect someone, and potentially clear a townie (if nobody dies, then who I targeted is confirmed town)
And then we also get a better lynch attempt tomorrow.

I would say that we are potentially better off no lynching today. It is the safer method.
Tldr scum can't win unless we mislynch

I guess if we don't lynch anyone, we're confirmed to see a day 4. 

The best scenario if we don't lynch is that everyone may be alive tomorrow. The worst scenario is that one of us is dead and we're left with one scum and two town. That's still could easily lead to a town win.

 

The best scenario if we lynch is that we get the scum and win right now. The worst scenario is that we mislynch and Mafia manage to get a kill during the night. The latter has a higher possibility of happening than the former.

 

What do Zero and Spurge think? Do you guys agree with Profs point of view? Also this is only holds if he's actually a doc. Otherwise not lynching would definately lead to the worst scenario of a nolynch.



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My reason for suspecting you spurge is that you are being very strange.
For someone who supposedly was the sensible one this game, you completely ignored the most sensible option for the day, and that is to no lynch.

Give me a chance to protect, which would not just prove me, but also my target. That would then rule out 50% of the players, which gives us only 2 people to look at.

@mrp
Just wanted to clarify, if I am not the doc, how does no lynching lead to the worst possible outcome? Imo, we have less chance to correctly lynch today than we do tomorrow.



theprof00 said:
My reason for suspecting you spurge is that you are being very strange.
For someone who supposedly was the sensible one this game, you completely ignored the most sensible option for the day, and that is to no lynch.

Give me a chance to protect, which would not just prove me, but also my target. That would then rule out 50% of the players, which gives us only 2 people to look at.

@mrp
Just wanted to clarify, if I am not the doc, how does no lynching lead to the worst possible outcome? Imo, we have less chance to correctly lynch today than we do tomorrow.

Worst possible outcome if a no lynch takes place (I.E. "One of us is dead and we're left with one scum and two town."). We also wouldn't know whoose town, if a failed attempt at a kill from Mafia takes place, and hence we'll be going into our fourth day blind.

Indeed we have a less chance of lynching someone correctly and that has it's own very grave outcomes or very very positive if we do end up lynching someone correctly.



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