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Forums - Gaming - Bold prediction: Pokemon Sun/Moon #1 this holiday and will outsell CoD: Infinite Warfare

AlfredoTurkey said:

Pokemon Go is a fad and Nintendo knew it was going to be a fad by the timing of the release. It was always going to be used as a hook to get people to buy the proper Pokemon games. I suspect it will, but not by enough to vault it passed COD. COD is the most casual gaming experience the console industry has right now and nothing will toppl it.

It's a shame too because Sun and Moon are going to be so superior to Go that it isn't even funny.

I don't think Go's intention was to get people to buy new handheld pokemons (which also means buying 3ds's). I think it was simply to make a ton of money of the mobile app and give Pokemon a spot on the large mobile market. You also have to consider that one of the big investor in GO is Google and they have nothing to gain from making people buy a 3ds and Sun. it is important to remember that Nintendo is FAR from being the only decision maker behind Pokemon Go. Creature and Gamefreak own Pokemon as well and for all we know their main intention may have to been to expand Pokemon beyond Nintendo handhelds (a shrinking market) to mobile (a growing market).

 

It is hard to imagine non-gamers following a mobile fad transitioning to Sun/Moon which can be a $100+ investment. we are talking about mobile consumers buying a gaming console to catch pokemon when they already can on their phones free and all their friends play on phones as well. just not likely the way I see it. also the Sun/Moon (and a couple gens before that) pokemon deisgns look extremely offputting to people who are blinded by nostalgia like me. If something like Fire red was to release at this time I would definately think the nostalgia factor of Go would noticably boost sales.



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fleischr said:
Thuglas said:
I doubt it will happen and those are the same reasons given every year for why COD will die out but those reasons never apply. New battlefield, No new ideas, casuals will move on etc. CoD has been a massive seller since 2007, why would its fanbase be "casuals who will move on"? 

I'm not saying it dies out entirely. Hardly that. At the numbers I've predicted it's still comfortably the #2 best selling game of the holiday, #3 at the worst.

CoD has been massively bundled for the last several years for both X1 and PS4, and yet a large number of people kept buying and playing CoD, including legacy titles, on last gen. If they didn't upgrade in the last year, they're perhaps even less likely to upgrade consoles now. And if they did, they'd probably do so for an entirely different game than CoD.

Rather than have me explain why IW will be down YoY, why don't you explain to me why it will maintain and grow the very same audience this year?

Edit:  nvm wrong reply



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fleischr said:
CWegzz said:

The current gen BO3 sales were over 20 million, so those 3-4 million sales wouldn't make much of an impact.  There's also no way Sun/Moon will end up selling over 20 million.  Also, last-gen versions of BO3 weren't nearly as bad as Unity was.  They were pretty much the same game with downgraded graphics and no campaign and mot of the casuals don't even care about the single player in CoD.  Also from what it seems, all the hate on Infinite Warfare is just people jumping on the hate train.  Once the game actually comes out the casuals will stop caring and buy it.  I'm convinced that Infinite Warfare won't sell as well as BO3, mostly due to all the competition this holiday season with Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2, but it won't sell worse than Sun/Moon between both platforms.

But I'm not saying Sun/Moon hits 20 million+. I say it hits 17 million.

And I figure IW to sell nearly 15 million. That's not too shabby. CoD has always had it's haters - but has it ever been this sour? BO3 and Advanced Warfare had much better general reception. Keep in mind, there's a sizable number who've sworn off buying another CoD every year - but every year they disappoint themselves and get it. At certain point, they too will give up on the franchise.

I don't believe that Sun/Moon will sell that much.  On each Nintendo handheld, the first Pokemon game on it is the best selling and I don't see that changing especially since the 3DS is almost at its deathbed, even with the anniversary and Pokemon go.  Also, BO3 sold close to 24 million copies, so I don't see a 9 million sales decrease this year.  I do think that there will be a decrease, but not that bad.  The last mainline Call of Duty to sell below 20 million was World at War at to think that Infinite Warfare is going to sell 15 million is a bit ridiculous.  I still think that Sun/Moon aren't going to outsell XY and every single mainline Call of Duty since Call of Duty 3 has outsold Pokemon XY.  



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Its possible. Not only do I think COD will have a significant decilne in sales, but Pokemon will have a significant increase.



fleischr said:
Thuglas said:
I doubt it will happen and those are the same reasons given every year for why COD will die out but those reasons never apply. New battlefield, No new ideas, casuals will move on etc. CoD has been a massive seller since 2007, why would its fanbase be "casuals who will move on"? 

I'm not saying it dies out entirely. Hardly that. At the numbers I've predicted it's still comfortably the #2 best selling game of the holiday, #3 at the worst.

CoD has been massively bundled for the last several years for both X1 and PS4, and yet a large number of people kept buying and playing CoD, including legacy titles, on last gen. If they didn't upgrade in the last year, they're perhaps even less likely to upgrade consoles now. And if they did, they'd probably do so for an entirely different game than CoD.

Rather than have me explain why IW will be down YoY, why don't you explain to me why it will maintain and grow the very same audience this year?

I don't know much about how heavily bundles affected sales. All I know is many major games get bundled and I never heard of anything suggesting Black Ops bundle was something extraordinary. that is why I didn't comment on the bundles part. I just don't know the details on this subject and you didn't even explain why the bundle were so special. not saying you are wrong, just that you didn't tell me exactly why you are right.

 

As for your reasoning about IW declining YoY, your main reason was the trailer had a negative reception by many right? I just don't see how that matters now when it has been cool to bandwagon hate CoD for years now on the internet. the massive hate it recieved never affected sales, I remember non stop hating for MW3 and non stop praising for battlefield 3 being the second coming, yet MW3 went on to becoming to best selling COD of all time. and you are the one claiming it will shrink, I replied saying I don't your reasoning for it shrinking is very strong. Why should I have to provide reasons of it "growing" its audience? All i have to do is provide reasons why it will not decrease to 15mil to disagree with you.



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yeah... no...CoD will remain the king of sales, and going against battlefield will only make people talk about it more. its Cod vs Battlefield again, people will keep talking about both games, and the end result will be both games selling huge amounts.

also when the holidays finally come around the hype around Pokemon go will have died off.



... bump



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Last paragraph tho?
I wouldnt call this a bold prediction, but still very well done!



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

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Slarvax said:
Last paragraph tho?
I wouldnt call this a bold prediction, but still very well done!

What about it?



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Oh dang! This is going to be good! Claps to you man if it is true! I remember saying a while back in another thread that it will be impossible!



Pocky Lover Boy!