Well based on trends, we can make several assumptions.
1. Joel has a deep seated mistrust or reluctance toward institutions...of any sort really. Fireflies, hospitals, the police force, military, schools. In fact, most of the conflicts in the game revolve around institutions. Government buildings, schools, hospitals, labs, etc. He lost his daughter to military, he lost his companion to military. And each time, they weren't due to being bad guys, they were caught in hard places. Ie, daughter shot despite not being infected, companion shot despite trying to save the world.
While it's not really evidence, we could theoretically make inferences. However, we also never really see this mistrust appear until his daughter dies. He's even incredulous that they aren't allowed to pass.
2. Joel is plagued by a failure to protect his loved ones. Each person he loses dies under his direct supervision. It is ellie who bucks this trend by surviving herself and protecting joel. Ellie has surpassed joel. We could make the inference that joel somehow let his wife die or was not able to protect her.
3. I think it's pretty obvious his wife died, which is clear by the lack of any mention of her during the story or with Sarah during the outbreak.
4. We know joel has a revolver, while some might point out that owning a revolver is simply something people do, it's also a move toward protection.
There's a lot that one could glean from the central themes but I think the most important factors are these:
Inability to protect loved ones
Bad feelings toward institutions
Over preparedness resulting from inexperience
Self loathing
I'd say a couple possibilities are:
Drunk driving accident with joel at the wheel
Sickness complication/hospital related death (miscarriage)
Then there's the whole theme of the game, which is:
Survivalists struggling in post-apoc society caused by parasitic natural phenomenon.
Other central themes are children, family, betrayal (government betrayal, firefly betrayal, betrayal of the gay dude by his lover, betrayal of species against itself)
You could kind of boil it all down to something natural/human nature/biology stops functioning normally and results in destruction.
Having not played the game in over a year, I'd honestly saymy best guess would be something involving a betrayal of self through lack of control, becoming a monster.
I'd imagine a fight about something, maybe their future, possibly while drunk, causing her to leave and somehow die maybe by car accident or suicide.
Oh I just thought of another trope: direct conflict opposition:
Police are supposed to protect but kill Sarah
Humans are supposed to die, not come back to life
Joel learns on the streets not in school
Firefly supposed to cure not kill
Joel loves but shows it through anger
Maybe he needed her and she left
Also sarcasm is truth hidden in a lie
Another interesting question is about the watch. Why did his daughter get him a watch? And why did joel make a joke saying it was busted?
Sorry for the rambling but I'm on my phone and everyone knows how difficult the process of editing on vgc via phone ia.










