Thanks for your response.

Down YoY for November for sure. Down YoY YTD is also likely. It's up (world wide) YTD about 300K right now (which includes the -136K for the week of 7 Nov), so Nov would need to be down YoY by over 436K to put Xb one down YoY by the end of Black Friday. The week of 14 Nov Xb one is down by 108K so after 2 weeks in November Xb one is just over half way to that tipping point of going negative YoY. Xb one sold 407K on 22 November week last year. I don't think there is anything that's going to put Xb one terribly close to that number for this year's corresponding week. It is likely to fall short by at least another 100K I would guess. So basically BF week will only need to be down YoY by about 100K for Xb one to go into negative YoY territory.

The NPD PR for Xb one for November is going to be difficult to write. Tomb Raider will hopefully make the top 10 with the 7th gen contributing a few sales to the 8th gen. And hopefully CoD on Xb one will be ahead of PS4 in NPD since quite a lot of BO3 sales on PS4 will be official bundles, which NPD doesn't report as game sales, whereas all the Xb one bundles with CoD are unofficial bundles which NPD will report as game sales. But witht he likely event of PS4 winning November hardware and being up YoY, and Xb one being down YoY, there is not going to be much positive PR that can be written about the hardware situation.

Just seen Shadow's reply re USA situation. It's likely that for NPD MS will be able to report that Xb one is still up YoY in the USA, so that will be positive PR they can point to. But it's likely NPD PR, via Venture beat, will highlight that hardware revenue is substantially down YoY and that will primarily be due to a significant drop in Xb one revenue, which given the base price of Xb one is the same as this time last year means whatever the revenue% drop is also closely represents the hardware unti drop %.

Thank you for another very well thought out analysis. 

Notice something about this picture from Best Buy? It seems to me that the only bundle they have for the PS4 is the Nathan Drake bundle and there are more of them than what appears to be left over stock for the Tombraider/Gears XB1 bundles. I see no reason why MS would put out more Tombraider bundles at this point.  Sony are stuffing these channels hard and I reckon they'll sell all of those bundles. Black Friday is going to be carnage:

3 hours after last update:

#14 PS4 Star Wars Standard Bundle (down 1)
#16 PS4 Black Ops Bundle (down 1)
#30 XB1 Gears Bundle (down 3)
#39 XB1 Fallout Bundle (down 3)
#76 PS4 Nathan Drake Bundle (down 6)
#81 WU Mario Kart Bundle (same)

PS4 - 4 bundles, 3 in the top 100
XB1 - 9 bundles, 2 in the top 100

XB1 Deals:

Gears Bundle + 3 months LIVE.
Halo Bundle + Froza Horizon 2

PS4 Deals:

Nathan Drake Bundle + Star Wars
Nathan Drake Bundle + Fallout 4

Cripes, that's an impressive wall of hardware. Is that a little pile of Wii U's in between the big stacks of PS4s and Xb ones? I assume the supplies of the CoD and BE LE consoles will be pretty negligible now, but I would have thought the Standard BF bundle would be in the mix. Or is Sony putting all its BF eggs in the NDC basket? Makes sense since NDC is basically a zero cost for Sony, whereas the 3rd party bundles requires Sony to had over some of that revenue to the publisher. So while I'm sure Sony is happy to sell the 3rd party bundles at the regular price, it doesn't make economic sense to do crazy BF deals on those bundles.

I'd say so, yes. One bundle, 1st party game, one package and one advertising campaign. They're churning these out and clearly expect to sell them, and I wouldn't mind betting that even if they don't sell every single one, adding TLOUR to the mix will see that left over stock fly off the shelves post Black Friday/Cyber Monday. And, yes, that little pile in the centre is the WiiU ...

Last year their strategy was focused on the bundled games, which did not work due to big price difference compared to X1 deals. This year they are simply focusing on the temporary 300 price point. There are BF deals on games so people can just buy those separately and choose what they want.

I'm pretty sure there's also some Black Ops 3 and Star Wars bundles

Apparently it's also Black Friday stock, so having more of the cheaper bundle makes a lot of sense.

Just Dance domination!