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Forums - Politics - Greeks, what will you vote?

First of all the whole bailout program is a joke. There is no chance greece's gdp is ever going to grow with these recession messures they are proposing. Greece has followed the directions of europe for 5 years now and has suffered a lot (many ppl working for the public sector have lost their jobs, the rest have seen their salaries cut in half or more, pensions have been cut, companies have closed or relocated offshore etc) but the economic situation now than 5 years ago is worse. So the greek people suffer while the economy shrinks, unemployment rises and there is NO longterm solution offered my anyone.
Now the question asked to the greek people is "Do you accept the eurogroup's bailout proposal?" And I would like to believe that anyone who knows anything about the situation greece is in will say NO!

Now quoting Joseph Stiglitz, a nobel winning economist:
"[...] A yes vote would mean depression almost without end.[...]By contrast, a no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. Greeks might gain the opportunity to shape a future that, though perhaps not as prosperous as the past, is far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present. I know how I would vote."

Paul Krugman, another nobel winning economist says that:
"Europe is crazy to let Greece implode, but, given this, Greece is doing the right thing."
"I would vote no[...]leaving the euro would be better than continuing the same program that has been in place for the last 5 years[...]"

sources:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/29/joseph-stiglitz-how-i-would-vote-in-the-greek-referendum
http://www.businessinsider.com/krugman-europe-greece-2015-6
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-greek-referendum-2015-6



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Either way.... its going to take along long time before things get better.... that Joseph stiglitz you quoted talks about decades (more than 1) into the future.



I've never seen an economy who went bankrupt take so long to recover. But even if it takes decades, it's better than never. Greece has already sold off it's major assets to german companies for pennies, the young and brightest are constantly leaving greece in search for work, most greeks work for under 1000 euros a month, 5-6 days a week 10 or more hours a day, without insurance.



nanarchy said:
generic-user-1 said:

 

the new greek government allmost walked away several times. they dont fear the default. the old greek government, well they allready feaed for their lives after crashing the country.

If they didn't fear the default they wouldn't have put it to a vote, they are well aware of the catastrophic consequences and want to be able to say that the people made the choice to take the pain. Don't get me wrong, long term (in a couple of decades) they can come out of it far better and healthier, but the short term pain will be very real and very harsh.



Iceland defaulted, had a referendum on whether to pay back debts and the people voted it down.Iceland had a sharp recession lasting for a year or so but has been growing steadily since.It doesn't really matter though because it's not just Greece that has debt problems in the EU it's also Spain,Italy,Ireland,Portugal,Italy even France.Deutsche bank holding 54 trillion in derivatives.... the whole thing is completely fucked.



nanarchy said:
generic-user-1 said:

 

the new greek government allmost walked away several times. they dont fear the default. the old greek government, well they allready feaed for their lives after crashing the country.

If they didn't fear the default they wouldn't have put it to a vote, they are well aware of the catastrophic consequences and want to be able to say that the people made the choice to take the pain. Don't get me wrong, long term (in a couple of decades) they can come out of it far better and healthier, but the short term pain will be very real and very harsh.



Iceland defaulted, had a referendum on whether to pay back debts and the people voted it down.Iceland had a sharp recession lasting for a year or so but has been growing steadily since.It doesn't really matter though because it's not just Greece that has debt problems in the EU it's also Spain,Italy,Ireland,Portugal,Italy even France.Deutsche bank holding 54 trillion in derivatives.... the whole thing is completely fucked.



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routsounmanman said:

PS: The saddest part of it all, is the misinformation and lies that every other EU (not exclusively) country is being told. Everyone blames us for not trying, for being lazy, that it's only Greece's problem, etc. When we go under and some day austerity knocks on your doors, it will already be too late.


This bit rings as especially true to me. Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, the UK, China, USA, and Canada (plus a bunch of others that I just haven't read up on) are all ticking time bombs, the smugness of some individuals is quite astounding.

The USA may hold out longer than the rest, simply because as others fall, investors will flea to the "safety" of US Treasuries. But even that party can't last forever.



Nettles said:
nanarchy said:

If they didn't fear the default they wouldn't have put it to a vote, they are well aware of the catastrophic consequences and want to be able to say that the people made the choice to take the pain. Don't get me wrong, long term (in a couple of decades) they can come out of it far better and healthier, but the short term pain will be very real and very harsh.



Iceland defaulted, had a referendum on whether to pay back debts and the people voted it down.Iceland had a sharp recession lasting for a year or so but has been growing steadily since.It doesn't really matter though because it's not just Greece that has debt problems in the EU it's also Spain,Italy,Ireland,Portugal,Italy even France.Deutsche bank holding 54 trillion in derivatives.... the whole thing is completely fucked.

Iceland didn't default, the iceland privately owned banks did, they collapsed completely leading to a meltdown of their financial system and currency, the government had to nationalise the banking system and secure very large loans from the IMF. because of that iceland still has a massive debt to pay. Also it didn't recover in a year, it took about 4 before they started to grow again and they are still under capital controls.



nanarchy said:
Nettles said:



Iceland defaulted, had a referendum on whether to pay back debts and the people voted it down.Iceland had a sharp recession lasting for a year or so but has been growing steadily since.It doesn't really matter though because it's not just Greece that has debt problems in the EU it's also Spain,Italy,Ireland,Portugal,Italy even France.Deutsche bank holding 54 trillion in derivatives.... the whole thing is completely fucked.

Iceland didn't default, the iceland privately owned banks did, they collapsed completely leading to a meltdown of their financial system and currency, the government had to nationalise the banking system and secure very large loans from the IMF. because of that iceland still has a massive debt to pay. Also it didn't recover in a year, it took about 4 before they started to grow again and they are still under capital controls.

Meanwhile, Greece opted to not default, take crazy amount of austerity measures and is in a worse condition than it started (exluding the primary surplus).

GDP -26%

Unemployment 27%

Pension / Wage cuts 30 - 50%

Debt 170% of GDP 



routsounmanman said:
nanarchy said:

Iceland didn't default, the iceland privately owned banks did, they collapsed completely leading to a meltdown of their financial system and currency, the government had to nationalise the banking system and secure very large loans from the IMF. because of that iceland still has a massive debt to pay. Also it didn't recover in a year, it took about 4 before they started to grow again and they are still under capital controls.

Meanwhile, Greece opted to not default, take crazy amount of austerity measures and is in a worse condition than it started (exluding the primary surplus).

GDP -26%

Unemployment 27%

Pension / Wage cuts 30 - 50%

Debt 170% of GDP 

What do you hpe from a default?

Greece has no insdustrial sectors to take profit of a week dachme, and the new government & local banks won't have money to help create new ones.

A week currecny will just further reduce the country's GDP, by alot.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

aaaaand greek has defaulted to the imf.