fleischr said: Don't forget: SMT x FE of course launches in December in Japan. I think that could help push a few very good weeks.
In 2013, WiiU hit that performance based on rising popularity of SM3DW and not really based on another new release or sudden pricecut.
I think beating 2013 is certainly in play, especially if some pricecut gets announced.
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It launches in the last week of December, so 2015 will only get the first week boost (which of course will be the largest portion, if Xenoblade X and any other JRPG is an example).
The sudden boost in sales in 2013 really had almost nothing to do with SM3DW. The Wii Party U bundle was extremely appealing for the Japanese, and helped the console out a lot. Sure, having a great new exclusive like SM3DW out helped, but I wouldn't say it was the main cause for an influx in sales.
Beating 2013 is possible, but Nintendo just needs to put out an enticing new bundle or they need to cut the price. Either one would work pretty well.