If it's the only time Xb can ever win in the USA MS will make sure they do everything they possibly can to be able to put out PR saying "Xbox one was the biggest selling console on Black Friday". Of Course I think MS will pretty much always have a 2 month strategy for the USA and they will pretty much do what it takes to win all of Nov and Dec every year. So this gen I doubt PS4 will ever win Black Friday.

If Sony offers UC4 (physical) + another back catalog game (digital) for $299 on BF that would compete very strongly with an H5 bundle @$279. Especially if Sony only officially drops the PS4 price to $349 this year. If MS does $279 bundles + $50 gift card I don't see any possible way for PS4 to get close to that.

To say that they couldn't is ignorant. So far the only reason they lost last black friday was because of MS doing money bleeding bundles in order to compete. The spread last year was about 33% after everything was said and done. So I think it's very likely we'll see PS4 take a black friday before the next gen starts.

That's a ridiculous waste of money.  Halo 5 is the consoles flagship and should be able to move boatloads of consoles on its own.firesale plus halo is massive overkill and a waste of money.  

Certainly not this year. Microsoft will probably sell a $299 Tomb Raider bundle for holiday and next year.

Basically what they have done with AC Unity they will do it with Tomb Raider or Halo 5, or Both!

It will be hard for the PS4 to beat the XB1 that week. BF brings out the bargain hunters and I cant see MS letting Sony offer a better bargain that day. Not to mention all the parents buying Xboxes for their teenage boys. Sony does better the rest of the year because their userbase skews older. When you have a job and can afford things you don't wait til Christmas to buy them (that is unless your wife has you by the balls, lol). That's why I ended up getting a bunch of golfing stuff for Cmas this year... I already owned just about everything I wanted....

another $50 on top of the $70 from last year?  They're going to be $0 before soon if they keep up that rate.

Not this year. I expect XB1 + MCC + Halo 5 for $280-300. Sony will just bundle Uncharted 4, and some other game at whatever regular price is at that moment. (Guessing $350.)

I'm thinking it depends on the momentum of the year. If Sony continues to widen the gap throughout the year again the snowball of friends also wanting PS4 could just be too much even if does the desperation bundles again. Could be next year if they get their big Halo push out of the way this year though.

Not to mention the inevitable 1TB Halo 5 limited edition console.

The thing is that Sony doesn't need the PS4 to outsell the X1 during Black Friday (and the holiday season). It just needs to not get outsold by much.

The other question is how low is MS is willing to go? Last holiday season, some stores were offering X1's for $329 with 5 free games.