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Forums - Politics - Official 2016 USA Election Center: Trump/Sanders take New Hampshire

 

Who will win the first GOP debate?

Jeb Bush 6 9.68%
 
Scott Walker 1 1.61%
 
Donald Trump 28 45.16%
 
Marco Rubio 6 9.68%
 
Rand Paul 7 11.29%
 
Ted Cruz 4 6.45%
 
Chris Christie 1 1.61%
 
Ben Carson 6 9.68%
 
Mike Huckabee 3 4.84%
 
Rick Perry 0 0%
 
Total:62
Augen said:
gergroy said:
To the surprise of no one, Rand Paul is running! I'm guessing he is the candidate the plurality of this forum will support?


In the Republican field I would guess he will garner the greatest youth support as millenial conservatives seem to favor the libertarian view more than prior generations.  I think Paul's struggle is being himself while winning primaries with the base voting.  He has already adjusted or weakened many stances in the lead up tot his announcement for political reasons. He wanted to cut defense spending and now he wants to ramp it up because for some reason that wins political points with parts of the electorate.

My guess is Rand will stick it out through South Carolina, but without the backing of major donors that favor safer candidates he will struggle and kept afloat by grass roots campaign.  After finishing 2nd-4th in each of the first three states he will drop out.

I don't know, I think he has a bigger base then most candidates typically do.  I am sure he will have the money to make it as far as he wants.  Ron Paul always kept going.  The question is if he wants to damage his brand for future races by hanging on for too long...



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gergroy said:

I don't know, I think he has a bigger base then most candidates typically do.  I am sure he will have the money to make it as far as he wants.  Ron Paul always kept going.  The question is if he wants to damage his brand for future races by hanging on for too long...

And his father Ron also never received a nomination. I remember him getting booed big time on stage at South Carolina back in 2012.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7bjy2rfTvI

This is the base the Paul's struggle with in primaries.  They actually do have greater cross appeal to moderates and liberals, but they can never get out of those core conservatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  (Side note: yes the primary system is hugely flawed in how this 2% of the population influences so much of the process)



Augen said:
gergroy said:

I don't know, I think he has a bigger base then most candidates typically do.  I am sure he will have the money to make it as far as he wants.  Ron Paul always kept going.  The question is if he wants to damage his brand for future races by hanging on for too long...

And his father Ron also never received a nomination. I remember him getting booed big time on stage at South Carolina back in 2012.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7bjy2rfTvI

This is the base the Paul's struggle with in primaries.  They actually do have greater cross appeal to moderates and liberals, but they can never get out of those core conservatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  (Side note: yes the primary system is hugely flawed in how this 2% of the population influences so much of the process)

Yeah, I am pretty sure he won't win the nomination (although he definitely looks like he will do better than his father).  I was mostly commenting on the money situation.  Ron Paul didn't get the big bucks that other candidates had, but he had plenty to work with and it never really dried up.  I think rand Paul will be less reliant on big donors as the other candidates, that was what i was referring to.  He should have the money to go as long as he wants, as such, I can't really see him dropping until at least after Super Tuesday.



gergroy said:
Augen said:

And his father Ron also never received a nomination. I remember him getting booed big time on stage at South Carolina back in 2012.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7bjy2rfTvI

This is the base the Paul's struggle with in primaries.  They actually do have greater cross appeal to moderates and liberals, but they can never get out of those core conservatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  (Side note: yes the primary system is hugely flawed in how this 2% of the population influences so much of the process)

Yeah, I am pretty sure he won't win the nomination (although he definitely looks like he will do better than his father).  I was mostly commenting on the money situation.  Ron Paul didn't get the big bucks that other candidates had, but he had plenty to work with and it never really dried up.  I think rand Paul will be less reliant on big donors as the other candidates, that was what i was referring to.  He should have the money to go as long as he wants, as such, I can't really see him dropping until at least after Super Tuesday.

Post Citizens United, you *need* big money to survive, especially in a primary that's much more sensitive to messaging than to the issues. Before, it was at least an option.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Mr Khan said:
gergroy said:
Augen said:

And his father Ron also never received a nomination. I remember him getting booed big time on stage at South Carolina back in 2012.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7bjy2rfTvI

This is the base the Paul's struggle with in primaries.  They actually do have greater cross appeal to moderates and liberals, but they can never get out of those core conservatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  (Side note: yes the primary system is hugely flawed in how this 2% of the population influences so much of the process)

Yeah, I am pretty sure he won't win the nomination (although he definitely looks like he will do better than his father).  I was mostly commenting on the money situation.  Ron Paul didn't get the big bucks that other candidates had, but he had plenty to work with and it never really dried up.  I think rand Paul will be less reliant on big donors as the other candidates, that was what i was referring to.  He should have the money to go as long as he wants, as such, I can't really see him dropping until at least after Super Tuesday.

Post Citizens United, you *need* big money to survive, especially in a primary that's much more sensitive to messaging than to the issues. Before, it was at least an option.

Huh?  Ron Paul was like the second or third best fundraiser of the republicans last cycle and did so without big money.  Plus, primaries are focused on a tiny slice of the voter pie, doesn't require near as much money as a general.  most of the primaries are going to be won on the ground with organization, since super pacs can't cordinate with the campaign their effect on primaries are minimal.



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I am kind of surprised Hillary is launching her campaign so early. I was figuring she would be a mid summer entry. She doesn't have to worry about fundraising or raising awareness, so I am guessing launching early is more about suffocating the primary field and preventing good candidates from launching a bid...



Holy Crap!
Another Bush and Clinton running can we get someone new for once(like Obama)...

I will support my senator Ran since he is better than Mitch and cooler imo....



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

OfficerRaichu15 said:

Holy Crap!
Another Bush and Clinton running can we get someone new for once(like Obama)...

I will support my senator Ran since he is better than Mitch and cooler imo....

I would have to roll my eyes several times if it actually ends up being Bush vs Clinton.  Even though those are the two most likely candidates... You never know though.  I think Bush will fail, way too much Bush fatigue and he has a lot of conservative oh no no's in his positions.  So I think it will be a hard path for him to get out of the primary.  Clinton is an all but lock for the democratic nomination though...  I think her announcing early is a way of keeping it that way too...



gergroy said:
OfficerRaichu15 said:

Holy Crap!
Another Bush and Clinton running can we get someone new for once(like Obama)...

I will support my senator Ran since he is better than Mitch and cooler imo....

I would have to roll my eyes several times if it actually ends up being Bush vs Clinton.  Even though those are the two most likely candidates... You never know though.  I think Bush will fail, way too much Bush fatigue and he has a lot of conservative oh no no's in his positions.  So I think it will be a hard path for him to get out of the primary.  Clinton is an all but lock for the democratic nomination though...  I think her announcing early is a way of keeping it that way too...

Yeah Clinton is the only one that I would vote for out of all the democrats

Ran for Republicans since we need some Kentucky people in the WH.



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

Hillary is such an appalling candidate, Democrats seriously need some other contenders.

The Republican primaries will be offering serious choice this season, Democrats only have the most establishment candidate you can possibly imagine.