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Forums - Gaming Discussion - FACTS vs. FICTION – Volume 1

Seece on 13 January 2015
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
badgenome said:

FICTION: The most powerful console can never win because the most powerful console has never won before.
FACT: The PS4 will win because no console with such a commanding lead has ever lost before. The Wii U will not win because no console that was in a distant third place after its second year on the market has ever won before.

FICTION: WiiU is going to sell 260 million units according to John Lucas
FACT: To my knowledge, no Nintendo system has ever peaked beyond the 3rd year. Therefore it will take an average of 30 years of WiiU selling 3m a year to beat PS4

I believe NES peaked after its 3rd year.......so Wii U still has hope to win???

I have little data going that far back unfortunatey :(

Would make for an interesting discussion tho if it was, because these days some Nintendo systems (in some regions) peak in their launch year. (3DS in the US)



 

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zorg1000 on 13 January 2015
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
badgenome said:

FICTION: The most powerful console can never win because the most powerful console has never won before.
FACT: The PS4 will win because no console with such a commanding lead has ever lost before. The Wii U will not win because no console that was in a distant third place after its second year on the market has ever won before.

FICTION: WiiU is going to sell 260 million units according to John Lucas
FACT: To my knowledge, no Nintendo system has ever peaked beyond the 3rd year. Therefore it will take an average of 30 years of WiiU selling 3m a year to beat PS4

I believe NES peaked after its 3rd year.......so Wii U still has hope to win???

I have little data going that far back unfortunatey :(

Would make for an interesting discussion tho if it was, because these days some Nintendo systems (in some regions) peak in their launch year. (3DS in the US)

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=701305

Not sure how accurate it is but pretty interesting nontheless



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Seece on 13 January 2015
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:

I have little data going that far back unfortunatey :(

Would make for an interesting discussion tho if it was, because these days some Nintendo systems (in some regions) peak in their launch year. (3DS in the US)

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=701305

Not sure how accurate it is but pretty interesting nontheless

Thanks man! Looks like the launch is far too staggered but clearly peaked third year in Japan, possibly in US .. and no idea what is going on with Europe.



 

Barenziah on 13 January 2015

Fiction: Wah! Wah! My inswides are hwurting.

Fact: PS4 crushing the opposition.



  

I smell like the dark forest of Dwemereth in the morning mist                                                   fanboy til i'm bankrupt

ils411 on 13 January 2015

? O.o O_o

Wut?

I'm sorry, but this thread is full of fail... I'd much rather have Kowen and soudofrain spam threads which i dislike... at least they both made valid and intelligent points as oppose to this BS..



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Tachikoma on 13 January 2015

Two can play at that game.

Fiction: ps3 has no gaems
Fact: playstation has won every generation of home console it has released in except for the 7th gen where a late start and high price left it playing catch up, every generation a decent priced home console has released alongside another consoles launch it has won, thus it will win 8th gen too.

See how silly that is?

So i leave you with this.
Fiction: ability to tell the future from abitrarily cherry picked hindsights
Fact: anything can happen and often does.



Yakuzaice on 13 January 2015
johnlucas said:

Those who don't accept Nintendo as the leader of this business may never understand the FACT about Japan being the Capital.
So I understand the gap. Many see Nintendo as a dinosaur waiting to die. Others see them as merely 'a player' in the market.
The FACT is that they are the DESIGNER of this market. They built this market in this way 30 years ago.

You will NEVER understand that FACT about Japan unless you accept the reality of Nintendo's place in this industry.
Nintendo is NOT The Past. Nintendo is THE PRESENT...AND THE FUTURE.

Is this kind of like how homeopathic medicine doesn't work for doctors because they don't believe in it?  Or how scientists can't understand the creation story until they accept the fact of god's word?

johnlucas said:

But power doesn't sell consoles.
And thus once again, the most powerful console NEVER wins.

You'll just have to see it for yourself.
There's not a truism stronger than that one in this business outside of "games sell consoles".

So power doesn't sell consoles and games do sell consoles.  Therefore the present sales situation between the Wii U and PS4 must mean the PS4 has much better games.

johnlucas said:

I have read comment boards on financial sites talking about this game race, gamer websites, & all kinds of forums.
There were gamers totally not into buying ANY of the 8th generation consoles UNTIL that E3 2014 Nintendo Digital Event...
...And then they wanted a Wii U.

No one out-exclusives Nintendo. NO ONE. That's how 3DS shut out the Vita.
Wii U gained GREAT word of mouth in 2014. You see a LOT less of those Nintendoom articles than you used to.
It will build that appeal game by game by damn game until it is The People's Console & THE MOST electrifying console in videogame entertainment today.

You are SEVERELY underestimating that Second Console advantage.

Guess that is why the Wii U has been less than 14% of 8th gen console sales since E3.  Because clearly everyone wanted a Wii U.  Your anecdotes are as spot on with reality as ever.

I do have to say this whole "second console advantage" thing has been an amusing way to spin low Wii U sales and high PS4/XBO sales into somehow being a good thing for Wii U.  Pretty sure you didn't think the Wii U needed any sort of second console advantage a year and a half ago when you expected it to be at 35 million by now.



HigHurtenflurst on 13 January 2015
Seece said:
badgenome said:

FICTION: The most powerful console can never win because the most powerful console has never won before.
FACT: The PS4 will win because no console with such a commanding lead has ever lost before. The Wii U will not win because no console that was in a distant third place after its second year on the market has ever won before.

FICTION: WiiU is going to sell 260 million units according to John Lucas
FACT: To my knowledge, no Nintendo system has ever peaked beyond the 3rd year. Therefore it will take an average of 30 years of WiiU selling 3m a year to beat PS4

Strictly speaking, adding that to the end makes it a fact, irrespective of how insane the prediction is.



slab_of_bacon on 13 January 2015

 

So are there going to be any bets on this?  What kind of odds are being offered?  

 



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Hedra42 on 14 January 2015

There are a number of people here who need to look up the meaning of the words 'fact' and 'fiction'. :/