PS4 2015: 17.5m | 55% market share

PenguinZ

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PenguinZ on 06 January 2015

Considering that we have a solid number from Sony regarding total sales.. I like this prediction a lot.

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DonFerrari

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DonFerrari on 06 January 2015

theprof00 said:

DonFerrari said:

theprof00 said

17.5m would be almost the second best year in playstation history. Don't get caught up with words like "pretty small yoy growth". Look at the graph..it's almost 100k higher every single week. Where do you justify 20m? I mean, I would have rathered it been 20m, but where do the numbers go? I even think most of my weeks are overestimated frankly.

In addition, can Sony even MAKE 20m consoles in a year? I just don't know. If you think that ps4 will have higher peaks than the numbers in the graph, it's really going to take a toll on inventory. Going to be hard to keep up those kinds of sales with the only reasoning to increase production being "this year has better games".

Why being the second best year in history matter? 16M first full year is the biggest ever for ps, bigger than ps3 biggest year, normal growth on ps platform is bigger than what you put. Second year rate of production will be bigger than first, Wii had problems to produce 15.5M for first full year but still sold 20 and 25M after that.

using normal sales spreed through the year means 10M for q4-q2 or 39 weeks and 10M for q3 or 13 weeks. Meaning 250k weekly average for those (since summer is slower we could be seeing 275k outside summer and 200k on summer) and q3 weeks 750k average. It is quite high numbers but not impossible.

But see, it didn't hit 16m :D

Yep, more along 14M, now 17,5M is merrier than before.