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Forums - Gaming - Xbox still behind wii U this week again

 

Is this surprising?

no 386 81.95%
 
hell yeah 85 18.05%
 
Total:471

Not sure why people are surprised about this. I always figured Wii U would just barely edge out the Xbox One, similarly to how the Xbox just edged out Gamecube, with Sony once again running away with it of course (though not by nearly as much as the PS2 gen).

But if you think about it, why WOULDN'T Nintendo outsell Xbone? Nintendo has a strong presence in Japan, still doing decent in America, and gaining some traction in Europe. MS really only has the US market. They are basically a non-entity in Japan. Nintendo also has many strong exclusive franchises to help carry Wii U, while Xbone will have Halo, Gears, and a bunch of third party titles that can also be found on the cheaper and more powerful PS4 (as well as the PC to some extent). PS4 is basically canibalizing the Xbone's market as they are more or less the same console. Nintendo has faltered in a big way this gen as compared to the Wii phenomenon in 06-09, but they at least they still have the advantage of largely going for a different market than the other two.



 

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etking said:
It is not surprising but as soon as Far Cry 4, Destiny, GTA V and all the other games are out things will change dramatically.

It will have more boost for superior PS4's version. Not sure Wii U will get beaten...



jlmurph2 said:
Are we really arguing about 2k units on a site that's purely estimates? Lol you guys are funny.

And if... the gap between XBOX ONE and Wii U is more?



Am expecting Destiny to give the X1 a boost, but how much of one- and how much of the overall sales gap it ends up closing with the Wii U- is largely going to depend on how much of the sales boost the PS4 gobbles up for itself. o.o Gamers who specifically buy an X1 for Destiny are probably going to be doing so with future Xbox exclusives in mind, like Sunset Overdrive, or the MCC, whereas both gamers focused on Destiny AND PS4 and exclusives, and gamers on the fence about other exclusives, but interested in Destiny, will likely end up buying a PS4 for it.



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It's not a surprise, in my opinion the xbone should fail, then microsoft would learn how to treat their consumers, they messed up with the drm policy, "always online" and TV,TV,TV, it was pretty obvious they didnt give a fuck to the gamers, even they changing it in the end, i'm still upset with that, they are reaping what they sow.



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shikamaru317 said:
I feel confident that those extra countries will boost Xbox One's weekly sales by at least 10%, not to mention the boost from first week sales in those countries. We're talking about 40+ new countries afterall, even if many of them aren't big markets, things add up when it's that many more countries.

Oh great, we've got a grammar nazi here. You'll have fun with some of the others on here who are far worse about grammar than me. Personally, I just don't care about correct grammar on the internet, only when I'm writing my novels. 

Whether you feel "confident" about it or not is irrelevant. And I am telling you right now that your expectation of 10% isn't a good one - the Xbox One hasn't been out of stock in any meaningful sense at any point since launch. They could easily have launched in those areas six months ago. That they didn't is an indication of likely support in those countries.

Consider this - for the entirety of Europe, Xbox 360 has sold (using VGChartz numbers) 25.12 million units. UK + France + Germany make up 15.55 million alone, with UK making up more than half of that number. Xbox One also released in Austria, Italy, Spain, and Ireland in 2013. We don't have exact numbers for LTD sales of Xbox 360 in these countries, but let's estimate a little. Data suggest that, in late 2007, Italy and Spain were both around 75% of Germany in Xbox 360 install base. If we suppose that this carries through to now, Italy and Spain each represent about 2.3 million - let's round down, and call it 4 million total for the two. So UK+Fra+Ger+Spa+Ita is about 19.55 million. That's about 78% of the total, right there. If we assume Ireland and Austria only add a few percentage points, we can probably call it 80-82%, leaving 18-20% to the rest of Europe.

But what happens when we look at Xbox One? VGChartz numbers says that UK+Fra+Ger is 1.02 million, and total sales are 1.21 million. So Spain, Italy, Austria, and Ireland, between them, are just 18.6% of UK+Fra+Ger Xbox One sales (for comparison, Spain + Italy alone were about 26% of those by late 2007). Even in terms of balance within UK+Fra+Ger, UK represents 61.7% of UK+Fra+Ger sales, whereas for Xbox 360, it's around 57%. Xbox One sales have been stronger in UK and weaker outside of the big three in Europe. And most of the European countries getting the system in September are countries that got Xbox 360 at launch, and that PS4 is already out in. Are people there really likely to buy Xbox One after such treatment? Simply put, the new European countries are unlikely to produce much of a bump for Xbox One.

Now look at the remainder - South Africa saw 65k Xbox 360 sales in almost two years from launch - it's not going to contribute much to Xbox One sales. Japan tended to contribute around 1-2k per week in Xbox 360 sales when there was no competition and the system launched in 2005 (no full-year delay), and tended to hover around 3k after the others launched... and this was back when PS3 tended to sell around 10k a week and Wii around 50k a week... if people aren't buying PS4 or Wii U in Japan in nearly these numbers, how much will Xbox One contribute? Maybe 500 a week?

As for the remaining countries... we're talking about Argentina, Chile, Colombia, India, Israel, Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Turkey, and UAE (taking Russia and Turkey as non-European for this discussion). Do you honestly expect any of these countries to buy Xbox One in significant numbers? Consider that, for Xbox 360, USA+Europe+Japan represents over 85% of total sales... and Australia easily represents 1-3% (hard to find exact numbers). Note that we haven't yet added Brazil, Canada, Mexico, or New Zealand.

Simply put, expecting a 10% boost from the next batch of countries is pushing it. But even if it does get such a boost, it would be doing so at about the same time that Wii U would be getting its next big game, Hyrule Warriors, a game that is going to appeal to just about every Zelda fan out there, plus most Musou fans. And that game is the start of the major Wii U release schedule for the end of 2014, which has games like Sonic Boom, Watch_Dogs, Smash Bros, Captain Toad, and Bayonetta (in Japan, add Fatal Frame V to the list, too) coming, compared with the last nearly two months, which has had a total of three retail releases (How to Train your Dragon 2, Transformers: Rise of the Dark Spark, and One Piece: Unlimited World Red), none of which even charted, while Xbox One has had a price drop and games like EA Sports UFC (which topped charts) and Sniper Elite III (which was in a fairly solid position on the chart) in that period.

This isn't to say that XBO will remain behind Wii U. But the argument based on launch in new territories is a bad one.



Aielyn said:
shikamaru317 said:
I feel confident that those extra countries will boost Xbox One's weekly sales by at least 10%, not to mention the boost from first week sales in those countries. We're talking about 40+ new countries afterall, even if many of them aren't big markets, things add up when it's that many more countries.

Oh great, we've got a grammar nazi here. You'll have fun with some of the others on here who are far worse about grammar than me. Personally, I just don't care about correct grammar on the internet, only when I'm writing my novels. 

 

Simply put, expecting a 10% boost from the next batch of countries is pushing it. But even if it does get such a boost, it would be doing so at about the same time that Wii U would be getting its next big game, Hyrule Warriors, a game that is going to appeal to just about every Zelda fan out there, plus most Musou fans. And that game is the start of the major Wii U release schedule for the end of 2014, which has games like Sonic Boom, Watch_Dogs, Smash Bros, Captain Toad, and Bayonetta (in Japan, add Fatal Frame V to the list, too) coming, compared with the last nearly two months, which has had a total of three retail releases (How to Train your Dragon 2, Transformers: Rise of the Dark Spark, and One Piece: Unlimited World Red), none of which even charted, while Xbox One has had a price drop and games like EA Sports UFC (which topped charts) and Sniper Elite III (which was in a fairly solid position on the chart) in that period.

This isn't to say that XBO will remain behind Wii U. But the argument based on launch in new territories is a bad one.

So since you're naming mulitplats should he just rebuttal with the shit ton of multiplats coming for Xbox One this fall? And then add Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Halo Master Chief Collection, Killer Instinct Season 2, Ori, Project Spark and the games that have exclusive content on Xbox One?



System selling game > faux price cut. Which is pretty obvious when you think about it.



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jlmurph2 said:
So since you're naming mulitplats should he just rebuttal with the shit ton of multiplats coming for Xbox One this fall? And then add Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Halo Master Chief Collection, Killer Instinct Season 2, Ori, Project Spark and the games that have exclusive content on Xbox One?

Please don't jump into a discussion without knowing what the discussion is about. If you want to make a comment, have a look back at what the discussion was actually about.



Aielyn said:
jlmurph2 said:
So since you're naming mulitplats should he just rebuttal with the shit ton of multiplats coming for Xbox One this fall? And then add Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Halo Master Chief Collection, Killer Instinct Season 2, Ori, Project Spark and the games that have exclusive content on Xbox One?

Please don't jump into a discussion without knowing what the discussion is about. If you want to make a comment, have a look back at what the discussion was actually about.


The discussion was about MS launching in more countries early september and you brought up random games in which only one is a system seller.