shikamaru317 said: I feel confident that those extra countries will boost Xbox One's weekly sales by at least 10%, not to mention the boost from first week sales in those countries. We're talking about 40+ new countries afterall, even if many of them aren't big markets, things add up when it's that many more countries.
Oh great, we've got a grammar nazi here. You'll have fun with some of the others on here who are far worse about grammar than me. Personally, I just don't care about correct grammar on the internet, only when I'm writing my novels.
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Whether you feel "confident" about it or not is irrelevant. And I am telling you right now that your expectation of 10% isn't a good one - the Xbox One hasn't been out of stock in any meaningful sense at any point since launch. They could easily have launched in those areas six months ago. That they didn't is an indication of likely support in those countries.
Consider this - for the entirety of Europe, Xbox 360 has sold (using VGChartz numbers) 25.12 million units. UK + France + Germany make up 15.55 million alone, with UK making up more than half of that number. Xbox One also released in Austria, Italy, Spain, and Ireland in 2013. We don't have exact numbers for LTD sales of Xbox 360 in these countries, but let's estimate a little. Data suggest that, in late 2007, Italy and Spain were both around 75% of Germany in Xbox 360 install base. If we suppose that this carries through to now, Italy and Spain each represent about 2.3 million - let's round down, and call it 4 million total for the two. So UK+Fra+Ger+Spa+Ita is about 19.55 million. That's about 78% of the total, right there. If we assume Ireland and Austria only add a few percentage points, we can probably call it 80-82%, leaving 18-20% to the rest of Europe.
But what happens when we look at Xbox One? VGChartz numbers says that UK+Fra+Ger is 1.02 million, and total sales are 1.21 million. So Spain, Italy, Austria, and Ireland, between them, are just 18.6% of UK+Fra+Ger Xbox One sales (for comparison, Spain + Italy alone were about 26% of those by late 2007). Even in terms of balance within UK+Fra+Ger, UK represents 61.7% of UK+Fra+Ger sales, whereas for Xbox 360, it's around 57%. Xbox One sales have been stronger in UK and weaker outside of the big three in Europe. And most of the European countries getting the system in September are countries that got Xbox 360 at launch, and that PS4 is already out in. Are people there really likely to buy Xbox One after such treatment? Simply put, the new European countries are unlikely to produce much of a bump for Xbox One.
Now look at the remainder - South Africa saw 65k Xbox 360 sales in almost two years from launch - it's not going to contribute much to Xbox One sales. Japan tended to contribute around 1-2k per week in Xbox 360 sales when there was no competition and the system launched in 2005 (no full-year delay), and tended to hover around 3k after the others launched... and this was back when PS3 tended to sell around 10k a week and Wii around 50k a week... if people aren't buying PS4 or Wii U in Japan in nearly these numbers, how much will Xbox One contribute? Maybe 500 a week?
As for the remaining countries... we're talking about Argentina, Chile, Colombia, India, Israel, Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Turkey, and UAE (taking Russia and Turkey as non-European for this discussion). Do you honestly expect any of these countries to buy Xbox One in significant numbers? Consider that, for Xbox 360, USA+Europe+Japan represents over 85% of total sales... and Australia easily represents 1-3% (hard to find exact numbers). Note that we haven't yet added Brazil, Canada, Mexico, or New Zealand.
Simply put, expecting a 10% boost from the next batch of countries is pushing it. But even if it does get such a boost, it would be doing so at about the same time that Wii U would be getting its next big game, Hyrule Warriors, a game that is going to appeal to just about every Zelda fan out there, plus most Musou fans. And that game is the start of the major Wii U release schedule for the end of 2014, which has games like Sonic Boom, Watch_Dogs, Smash Bros, Captain Toad, and Bayonetta (in Japan, add Fatal Frame V to the list, too) coming, compared with the last nearly two months, which has had a total of three retail releases (How to Train your Dragon 2, Transformers: Rise of the Dark Spark, and One Piece: Unlimited World Red), none of which even charted, while Xbox One has had a price drop and games like EA Sports UFC (which topped charts) and Sniper Elite III (which was in a fairly solid position on the chart) in that period.
This isn't to say that XBO will remain behind Wii U. But the argument based on launch in new territories is a bad one.