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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

DonFerrari on 19 July 2014
TheDrill said:
DonFerrari said:
Let's see TheDrill logic
1)From the six months this year Ps4 sold double X1 in 3 of them... So it is impossible for Ps4 to sell Double of the X1 in USA.
2)From the six months of this year X1 have never come close to outsell or at least tie. Even during pricecut month it fell short by 35% therefore X1 will outsell ps4 soon.
Outstanding logic supported by scientific evidence and flaweless argumentation. And of course his perfect english and science degree seals the deal.

Even if PS4 were to sell double X1 (that is ~40k more) It would take it 18 weeks (more than 1 year) to justget to a point near achieving double.

No way that happens.

Even in Europe PS4 doesn't have double the X1 marketshare.

18. Weeks equal 1 year now? And actually if ps4 sells exactly double of X1 it wouldn't ever pass because there would still be a residue. Ps4 would need more than double weekly sales to double X1 globally in USA. And I never said soon to start just said it is possible (altough quite hard).

Regarding europe it will have 2:1 certainly.





duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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TheDrill on 19 July 2014
DonFerrari said:

18. Weeks equal 1 year now? And actually if ps4 sells exactly double of X1 it wouldn't ever pass because there would still be a residue. Ps4 would need more than double weekly sales to double X1 globally in USA. And I never said soon to start just said it is possible (altough quite hard).

Regarding europe it will have 2:1 certainly.


My bad, I mean UK not Europe.

At double X1 sales, it just needs like 15 weeks or so for X1 to catch PS4.



DonFerrari on 19 July 2014
TheDrill said:
DonFerrari said:
 

18. Weeks equal 1 year now? And actually if ps4 sells exactly double of X1 it wouldn't ever pass because there would still be a residue. Ps4 would need more than double weekly sales to double X1 globally in USA. And I never said soon to start just said it is possible (altough quite hard).

Regarding europe it will have 2:1 certainly.


My bad, I mean UK not Europe.

At double X1 sales, it just needs like 15 weeks or so for X1 to catch PS4.

Ok in Uk it seems that Ps4 will have a harder time than even in USA. It's outselling X1 by a really small amount right now. There X1 could pass it with the right moves.





duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

TheDrill on 19 July 2014
DonFerrari said:

Ok in Uk it seems that Ps4 will have a harder time than even in USA. It's outselling X1 by a really small amount right now. There X1 could pass it with the right moves.

When I originally made this thread, I wanted to say in the USA and in the UK, because historically the Xbox brand has been popular in this region, and even the games, mostly FPS, UK seems to mirror USA preferences, as the target audience.


The reason I have not done so, is because at that time, and even now the PS4 total sales are extremely high compared to those of X1, and in UK sales are roughly ~ up to 10 k weekly so I didn't see it possible for X1 to catch up in UK.

Even if assuming that X1 can consistently push more than double (+10 k ) weekly, and Ps4 stays in the same place,  it would need  about 7 months to catch up to the PS4, but I don't see it being capable of doubling it's sales, considereging that it basically has already done so after the price cut.



Arkaign on 19 July 2014

Drill, if the XB1 gets outsold 3 to 2 or more in the US NPD results will you give this up? At this rate 2 to 1 looks probable within a ~12-15% margin of error.



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Arkaign on 19 July 2014

In the July results that is. We seem to be returning to a baseline this month, and what that number comes out to be on a weekly average will be clear as a bell.



TheDrill on 19 July 2014
Arkaign said:
In the July results that is. We seem to be returning to a baseline this month, and what that number comes out to be on a weekly average will be clear as a bell.


I doubt X1 sales will be significantly lower in July, now that the price cut is in effect it should be pretty close or slightly more than the PS4



Arkaign on 19 July 2014
TheDrill said:
Arkaign said:
In the July results that is. We seem to be returning to a baseline this month, and what that number comes out to be on a weekly average will be clear as a bell.


I doubt X1 sales will be significantly lower in July, now that the price cut is in effect it should be pretty close or slightly more than the PS4


Remember that BenV said early in June that the pricecut had xb1 in the lead? That means that xb1 had a massive bubble of sales, and to go on to lose by 70k+ for the month means that sales completely collapsed back to previous levels or even below (25k/week or less).Iow, I believe that xb1 will sell between 90-115k in July at best. Ps4 185-215k.

 

If so, then we're looking at another rough 100k in the hole for xb1, and all the sales charts from GameStop, Amazon, and Best Buy support that observation in terms of xb1 being heavily outsold once more.



TheDrill on 19 July 2014
Arkaign said:
TheDrill said:
Arkaign said:
In the July results that is. We seem to be returning to a baseline this month, and what that number comes out to be on a weekly average will be clear as a bell.


I doubt X1 sales will be significantly lower in July, now that the price cut is in effect it should be pretty close or slightly more than the PS4


Remember that BenV said early in June that the pricecut had xb1 in the lead? That means that xb1 had a massive bubble of sales, and to go on to lose by 70k+ for the month means that sales completely collapsed back to previous levels or even below (25k/week or less).Iow, I believe that xb1 will sell between 90-115k in July at best. Ps4 185-215k.

 

If so, then we're looking at another rough 100k in the hole for xb1, and all the sales charts from GameStop, Amazon, and Best Buy support that observation in terms of xb1 being heavily outsold once more.


rought 100k? tge X1 was never outsold by 100k in a month.



Arkaign on 19 July 2014
TheDrill said:
Arkaign said:
TheDrill said:
Arkaign said:
In the July results that is. We seem to be returning to a baseline this month, and what that number comes out to be on a weekly average will be clear as a bell.


I doubt X1 sales will be significantly lower in July, now that the price cut is in effect it should be pretty close or slightly more than the PS4


Remember that BenV said early in June that the pricecut had xb1 in the lead? That means that xb1 had a massive bubble of sales, and to go on to lose by 70k+ for the month means that sales completely collapsed back to previous levels or even below (25k/week or less).Iow, I believe that xb1 will sell between 90-115k in July at best. Ps4 185-215k.

 

If so, then we're looking at another rough 100k in the hole for xb1, and all the sales charts from GameStop, Amazon, and Best Buy support that observation in terms of xb1 being heavily outsold once more.


rought 100k? tge X1 was never outsold by 100k in a month.


May was a huge amount more than just 100k for example. Microsoft threw that month in the trash on purpose though, the advance warning of $399 SKU caused a lot of buyers to hold off, which caused the June bubble.