523k

375k first week (2 days)

Can I make a non-specific prediction. Like "it will at least sell one unit". Or "it may or may not sell at least one unit". Because if I can, then that is my prediction. Although I am still not feeling very sure about it haha.

But in all seriousness I don't do specific predictions anymore because I would just be speaking out of my ass anyways. So bring on the launch and dispel the arcane such that we may know how it shall do.

Wii U was launched there in the holidays. BIG difference.

I'm gonna go with 500k. I'm just not sure how many they are actually going to have initially. They can barely keep up with demand elsewhere (most obviously due to the run up to the Japanese launch) but I think they just won't have more than half a million units available for the first week maybe even through week 2.

They will be sold out of course.

Might hit 1 Million first month.

Not really, because the people who buy consoles straight away, aren't casual gamers, they are actual gamers, meaning the time of year doesn't count.

500k FW is my bet

It's weird that by monday the Ps4 will lead next gen completely.

Absolutely, positively not.

While your logic that launch is far less casual dependent than regular post launch window sales is correct, holiday sales are still incredibly important and significant among the younger hardcore who don't have much money for themselves. 

A Wii U launch in February would've been lucky to break 210k, for instance.

Either way the Wii U gets chopped down a notch. ;)