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Forums - Gaming Discussion - UNITY - Nintendo & Wii U Finish The REVOLUTION

johnlucas said:
BHR-3 said:
johnlucas said:


Excellent technical rundown by nin10do in this thread. Good job, nin10do.
He has privately told me about Wii U's Efficient Power.
It all points to what I said about Nintendo giving you HD visuals when HD was affordable.
When it could be done in a way that doesn't wreck game development budgets.
All the Pretty Pretty without so much of the Penny Penny.

Now from the Science to the Art...

I quote JoeTheBro's post about Super Mario 3D World screenshots to underline Wii U's awakening.
Remember, Nintendo is so confident in this title that it's launching it DIRECTLY AGAINST the XBox One's launch in the United States.
Both launch on Black Friday itself, the day after Thanksgiving.

November 22nd.

Both the PlayStation 4 & the XBox One will have launch hype.
But it takes much more than launch hype to win a generation.
Super Mario 3D World (& Wii Party U in Japan) will be the jet engine that propels Wii U forward to its coming domination.
Wii U's performance in 2014 will be totally unrecognizable to its performance in 2013.
All the Nintendo Is Doomed talk will look hopelessly out of place.

Someone in this forum named Seece has been unceasing in asking me what I expect Wii U's U.S. sales to be for November & December.
I'll do him one better. I'll give my estimates for all major markets.
This one's for you Seece.

United States/Americas
November - 500,000 minimum (U.S. alone) / 750,000 minimum (all Americas combined)
December - 1,000,000 minimum (U.S. alone) / 1,350,000 minimum (all Americas combined)

Japan
November - 350,000 minimum
December - 900,000 minimum

Europe/Australia/Rest of World
November - 500,000 minimum (Europe) / 600,000 minimum (Europe/Australia) / 650,000 minimum (Eur/Aus/World combined)
December - 1,000,000 minimum (Europe) / 1,200,000 minimum (Europe/Australia) / 1,300,000 minimum (Eur/Aus/World combined)

The Beast Awakens this holiday season.
Prepare for it.
John Lucas


so 5.3M for Nov-Dec plus 3.5M that we have now = 8.8M wheres 12M before 2014 from OP do you believe 3.2M for Nov or has the forcast changed, as of right now i believe 7-8M range WW before 2014 begins


Don't forget that October is a month too.
And remember I said MINIMUM.
It could very well be that my November & December estimates are too LOW.

Before I bought my Wii U this August, I noticed that Wii U's stayed pretty motionless on the shelves in my local Wal-Mart.
Took a long time to move. Games too. Pretty much always there it seemed.
As September rolled in & Nintendo had that Wind Waker HD combo with the price drop, I noticed that Wii U's were hardly on the shelves at all anymore.
I saw a Wii U in the layaway section & said to myself "it begins".

I STILL haven't seen The Wonderful 101 on the shelves in 3 weeks!
A friend of mine who's planning to get a PS4 recently bought a Wii U for his "daughter" he says.
Oh sure, it's for his daughter but I bet money he's playing it with her too.
Certain Wii U games are selling out & I don't seem them being refreshed on the shelves leaving that gaping hole in the shelves of games.
In my area at least, Nintendo stuff is selling. Even the old Wiis are selling. 3DS, Wii U, it's moving now.

What I see happening is Wii Party U lighting a fire under Japan alongside Super Mario 3D World.
I might have undercut Japan's numbers too much but I'll keep them right there.
Europe's gonna be tricky with retailers ridiculously trying to take Wii U's out of their stores in the UK (they didn't do the same to Vita, did they?).
But while UK is the biggest of the European territories it's not the only one.
I expect France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, & all the rest to lift Wii U up where UK may give them trouble.
Australia will give its little kick to this total along with the miscellaneous regions of the world.

The U.S. is the lynchpin of the Americas of course but Canada & Mexico will pad those numbers with their contributions.
Nintendo will REALLY hit their stride with Wii U once they start opening up to more world markets.
With its focus on commUNITY built directly into the console, the international flavor can draw more people to the system.
It was already cool how you could play Mario Kart Wii with somebody from Argentina, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Russia, South Africa, Greece, Mexico, UK, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy...
...but now you have the choice to interact with them on a much more intimate level.

The true power of the internet in the console done in such an intergrated familial way.
It starts slow but builds more & more rapidly with each new purchase.
The console will work on an exponential basis. It will go further than Wii because of its improved network design.

2013 is just the beginning.
2014 is REALLY the year Wii U starts to kill the doubters' misinformed notions.
Super Smash Bros. is just one of many for that year that will wreck minds.

I hold to my calls made in the very first post in this thread.
I call for 12 million Wii U's sold by the end of 2013.
35 million Wii U's sold by the end of 2014.
60 million Wii U's sold by the end of 2015.
And lifetime total of 240 million Wii U's sold.

No change in my predictions.

John Lucas


First off, your figures for Other Americas are bad, it is not going to sell 50% of what it does in the states in November, it 's 10% of the market, the market isn't going to magically change.

Secondly, Nov + Dec have been similar in terms of figures in years past, though that can change, I think it's very unlikely to see WiiU jump up so dramatically in December.

900k in Japan in December? Did Wii even ever manage that? What exactly is going to push it there? All it has that will appeal is Mario ....

Europe, well that's Nintendo's weakest market.

All of the figures are ludicrus and you should change min to max. BHR is right tho, that falls way short of your 12m prediction. You expect another 3.2m on top of that, where?? That's an extra mill in each region.



 

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Seece said:
johnlucas said:
BHR-3 said:


so 5.3M for Nov-Dec plus 3.5M that we have now = 8.8M wheres 12M before 2014 from OP do you believe 3.2M for Nov or has the forcast changed, as of right now i believe 7-8M range WW before 2014 begins


Don't forget that October is a month too.
And remember I said MINIMUM.
It could very well be that my November & December estimates are too LOW.

Before I bought my Wii U this August, I noticed that Wii U's stayed pretty motionless on the shelves in my local Wal-Mart.
Took a long time to move. Games too. Pretty much always there it seemed.
As September rolled in & Nintendo had that Wind Waker HD combo with the price drop, I noticed that Wii U's were hardly on the shelves at all anymore.
I saw a Wii U in the layaway section & said to myself "it begins".

I STILL haven't seen The Wonderful 101 on the shelves in 3 weeks!
A friend of mine who's planning to get a PS4 recently bought a Wii U for his "daughter" he says.
Oh sure, it's for his daughter but I bet money he's playing it with her too.
Certain Wii U games are selling out & I don't seem them being refreshed on the shelves leaving that gaping hole in the shelves of games.
In my area at least, Nintendo stuff is selling. Even the old Wiis are selling. 3DS, Wii U, it's moving now.

What I see happening is Wii Party U lighting a fire under Japan alongside Super Mario 3D World.
I might have undercut Japan's numbers too much but I'll keep them right there.
Europe's gonna be tricky with retailers ridiculously trying to take Wii U's out of their stores in the UK (they didn't do the same to Vita, did they?).
But while UK is the biggest of the European territories it's not the only one.
I expect France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, & all the rest to lift Wii U up where UK may give them trouble.
Australia will give its little kick to this total along with the miscellaneous regions of the world.

The U.S. is the lynchpin of the Americas of course but Canada & Mexico will pad those numbers with their contributions.
Nintendo will REALLY hit their stride with Wii U once they start opening up to more world markets.
With its focus on commUNITY built directly into the console, the international flavor can draw more people to the system.
It was already cool how you could play Mario Kart Wii with somebody from Argentina, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Russia, South Africa, Greece, Mexico, UK, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy...
...but now you have the choice to interact with them on a much more intimate level.

The true power of the internet in the console done in such an intergrated familial way.
It starts slow but builds more & more rapidly with each new purchase.
The console will work on an exponential basis. It will go further than Wii because of its improved network design.

2013 is just the beginning.
2014 is REALLY the year Wii U starts to kill the doubters' misinformed notions.
Super Smash Bros. is just one of many for that year that will wreck minds.

I hold to my calls made in the very first post in this thread.
I call for 12 million Wii U's sold by the end of 2013.
35 million Wii U's sold by the end of 2014.
60 million Wii U's sold by the end of 2015.
And lifetime total of 240 million Wii U's sold.

No change in my predictions.

John Lucas


First off, your figures for Other Americas are bad, it is not going to sell 50% of what it does in the states in November, it 's 10% of the market, the market isn't going to magically change.

Secondly, Nov + Dec have been similar in terms of figures in years past, though that can change, I think it's very unlikely to see WiiU jump up so dramatically in December.

900k in Japan in December? Did Wii even ever manage that? What exactly is going to push it there? All it has that will appeal is Mario ....

Europe, well that's Nintendo's weakest market.

All of the figures are ludicrus and you should change min to max. BHR is right tho, that falls way short of your 12m prediction. You expect another 3.2m on top of that, where?? That's an extra mill in each region.

i think he expcets it in Oct?  for it to reach 12M but then he goes on about MINIMUMS so in reality his bare minimum is lower than 12M, id say 9.5M but i believe even that is unreachable



                                                             

                                                                      Play Me

BHR-3 said:
Seece said:


First off, your figures for Other Americas are bad, it is not going to sell 50% of what it does in the states in November, it 's 10% of the market, the market isn't going to magically change.

Secondly, Nov + Dec have been similar in terms of figures in years past, though that can change, I think it's very unlikely to see WiiU jump up so dramatically in December.

900k in Japan in December? Did Wii even ever manage that? What exactly is going to push it there? All it has that will appeal is Mario ....

Europe, well that's Nintendo's weakest market.

All of the figures are ludicrus and you should change min to max. BHR is right tho, that falls way short of your 12m prediction. You expect another 3.2m on top of that, where?? That's an extra mill in each region.

i think he expcets it in Oct?  for it to reach 12M but then he goes on about MINIMUMS so in reality his bare minimum is lower than 12M, id say 9.5M but i believe even that is unreachable

Probably, in reality it'll be lucky to get 500k WW in October. And how he's coming to 240mill I don't know, he predicts up to 2015 and then it sells a further 180 million .... which is why I can't take him seriously.



 

Seece said:
BHR-3 said:
Seece said:
 


First off, your figures for Other Americas are bad, it is not going to sell 50% of what it does in the states in November, it 's 10% of the market, the market isn't going to magically change.

Secondly, Nov + Dec have been similar in terms of figures in years past, though that can change, I think it's very unlikely to see WiiU jump up so dramatically in December.

900k in Japan in December? Did Wii even ever manage that? What exactly is going to push it there? All it has that will appeal is Mario ....

Europe, well that's Nintendo's weakest market.

All of the figures are ludicrus and you should change min to max. BHR is right tho, that falls way short of your 12m prediction. You expect another 3.2m on top of that, where?? That's an extra mill in each region.

i think he expcets it in Oct?  for it to reach 12M but then he goes on about MINIMUMS so in reality his bare minimum is lower than 12M, id say 9.5M but i believe even that is unreachable

Probably, in reality it'll be lucky to get 500k WW in October. And how he's coming to 240mill I don't know, he predicts up to 2015 and then it sells a further 180 million .... which is why I can't take him seriously.


His predictions may be crazy but his posts do have some merit.



hiimnew said:
Seece said:
BHR-3 said:
Seece said:
 


First off, your figures for Other Americas are bad, it is not going to sell 50% of what it does in the states in November, it 's 10% of the market, the market isn't going to magically change.

Secondly, Nov + Dec have been similar in terms of figures in years past, though that can change, I think it's very unlikely to see WiiU jump up so dramatically in December.

900k in Japan in December? Did Wii even ever manage that? What exactly is going to push it there? All it has that will appeal is Mario ....

Europe, well that's Nintendo's weakest market.

All of the figures are ludicrus and you should change min to max. BHR is right tho, that falls way short of your 12m prediction. You expect another 3.2m on top of that, where?? That's an extra mill in each region.

i think he expcets it in Oct?  for it to reach 12M but then he goes on about MINIMUMS so in reality his bare minimum is lower than 12M, id say 9.5M but i believe even that is unreachable

Probably, in reality it'll be lucky to get 500k WW in October. And how he's coming to 240mill I don't know, he predicts up to 2015 and then it sells a further 180 million .... which is why I can't take him seriously.


His predictions may be crazy but his posts do have some merit.


How so?



 

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Just want to point out... The only real numbers we have are upwards of 3.6 Million as of June. We don't reliable sales numbers for this quarter yet, and we won't have them for a few weeks. Then there's October, November, December.



nin10do said:
Just want to point out... The only real numbers we have are upwards of 3.6 Million as of June. We don't reliable sales numbers for this quarter yet, and we won't have them for a few weeks. Then there's October, November, December.

We have Japan and US (NPD) which make up over 60% of WW sales (If not more, given Europe is the weakest for Nintendo right now). Good enough to base discussion on.



 

nin10do said:
Just want to point out... The only real numbers we have are upwards of 3.6 Million as of June. We don't reliable sales numbers for this quarter yet, and we won't have them for a few weeks. Then there's October, November, December.

Don't forget what website you're on!

http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

3.53 million

I'd be shocked if it was significantly off.



I wouldn't.

That would mean it sold negative numbers in the last 3 months.

I'll just assume those numbers are stuck at around June numbers and they won't update that until October, because that's ridiculous. It was above 3.6 Million in June, how would it go down, or even just sell none?



nin10do said:
I wouldn't.

That would mean it sold negative numbers in the last 3 months.

I'll just assume those numbers are stuck at around June numbers and they won't update that until October, because that's ridiculous. It was above 3.6 Million in June, how would it go down, or even just sell none?


Shipped and sold are different things entirely. At the end of June Nintendo had shipped 3.6m. VGchartz tracks units sold which is always lower than shipped.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.