I wish there was a resume button. That's a lot of text, but I doubt Nintendo is happy with the performance of their new console or expecting high jumps. Just out of the misery level to one called mediocre will be the best to hope for the console.

It's funny because a part of me wants my prediction to be wrong, because if Nintendo doesn't compete against Sony and Microsoft (and if the Wii U sells less than 30 million units), then there will be less incentive for Sony and Microsoft to innovate.

Thinking on things a bit, I can see why JL is taking this stand with Nintendo.  If you are in the Nintendo camp, you want there to be some sort of company acting as a gatekeeper, and keeping the number of titles down, so money there will funnel into developers to make money.  You cheerlead what Nintendo did with the NES to keep dregs out for the most part.  And there is wanting for that.

The freemium model is an extension of demos anyhow, where you play and then upgrade. It can work, but there is concerns that only 10% making it will end up leading to a flood of delusioned development teams entering the market thinking they will make it.  That madness is not sustainable.

At the rate it's going, I'd say maybe 3 years. 5 years max.
Remember, the console market itself rose like a rocket too before its devastating crash.
I'm gonna use an excerpt from this (roughly edited) article by Alex Santoso called The Rise and Fall of Atari

"Thanks in large part to soaring sales of the VCS system, Atari’s annual sales grew from $75 million in 1977 to more than $2 billion in 1980, making Atari the fastest growing company in U.S. history. But it wouldn’t stay that way for long."

The Atari Video Computer System AKA the Atari 2600 came out in America on September 11, 1977 in the wake of the PONG crash of 1977.
3 years later Atari revenues ironically increased about 2600%. That's 1980.
3 years after that the videogame business crashes. That's 1983.

To understand the significance of what I just told you, read these excerpts from The Atari Timeline complied by Robert A. Jung.

1977 - The Arrival of the VCS
(December) Hand-held electronic games cut into Christmas console sales. Atari Inc. survives with financial support from Warner Communications, but is deep in debt.

1980
Atari's gross income is marked at $415 million, operating income at $77 million. Atari forms one-third of Warner Communication's total annual income and becomes the fastest-growing company in the history of America.

1983 - ...And All Fall Down
Atari posts losses of $536 million. Rumors of daily losses of up to $2 million are reported.

That thing said that Atari Inc. was THE FASTEST-GROWING COMPANY IN THE HISTORY OF AMERICA. THE HISTORY OF AMERICA.
It was once responsible for 1 out of 3 parts of Warner Communications' total annual income. One Entire THIRD!
Warner Communications was the parent company of Warner Bros. Pictures, the movie studio, & Warner Bros. Records, the music label (now known as Warner Music Group).
This behemoth later merged with magazine giant Time Inc. to form mega-giant Time Warner & later even bigger mega-giant AOL Time Warner.
And Atari was responsible for 1/3 of this media company's entire annual income. It was THAT big.

From deep in debt to 1/3 of Warner's total annual income to the 1983 Crash. In 6 years time.
Remember to adjust those numbers for inflation. Those would probably be billions today.

I have NEVER FORGOTTEN what happened to the videogame business & I am always wary of it happening again.
This business is unstable to begin with & it could easily collapse at any moment.
It's built on keeping up with novelty & you have to be ahead of the ball to keep people from being bored once the novelty wears off.
It's like the toy business. In fact it's somewhat an extension of the toy business.
And who better than a toy company, a playing card company, a game company like Nintendo to navigate those rocky seas?

Generations will last longer than they have in the past. Less new incoming competitors.
Gen 7 lasted 7 years before the 1st 8th gen home console arrived.
Gen 8 will be similarly long so Wii U has plenty of time to reap the rewards.
Besides Nintendo will have been drawing from Sony's & Microsoft's audiences the whole time.
The mobile fallout would be the icing on the cake.

I have just seen it in action now as a matter of fact.
The co-worker I keep talking about in this thread was once crazy for the Vita then lost interest.
Today he tells me he bought the 3DS & is legitimately impressed by the system.
He's still anticipating the XBox One but something tells me he'll have a Wii U in his collection before long (even if he doesn't use it as his primary console).
I told him that everybody's coming home to Nintendo in this generation & he sort of nodded his head a little.

It totally misses the point if you release a non-Gamepad version of Wii U. That'll just make it the Wii.
Gamepad is a MUST. You don't sell the NES without the Control Pad & you don't sell the Wii U without the UPad. NO EXCEPTIONS.
When Nintendo wants to push an experience, they pack it in every box as default.
That's why the Wiimote did much better than Kinect & especially the Move.

The mess is temporary. Games & word-of-mouth is all the Wii U needs.
Once the 8th gen competition finally enters the ring this November, Wii U will begin to set the stage for its domination.
All the doomsday talk about Nintendo will look comical this time next year.
By then that doomsday talk would probably transfer to the PS4 or XOne or BOTH.
John Lucas

Insanity.  It'd be like selling 3DS without the 3D!  Sacrilege!

I see what you did there;)

How can it not be? Everybody who WOULD have played on XBox One or PlayStation 4 would now come to Wii U to follow their games.
Yes, some would opt out of console gaming to go to New PC AKA tablets/smartphones or Old PC AKA desktops/laptops.
Yes, some would leave videogaming altogether finding other hobbies to do.
The majority though would simply follow their favorite franchises & if that new home happens to be Wii U, then they get a Wii U.

How did that co-worker of mine get so excited about the 3DS when before he was all about the Vita?
Monster Hunter, that's why. That simple.
And now the guy who once proudly sported his PSP everywhere years ago is holding a Nintendo handheld once again.

It's just like what happened in the 1980s. A total crash but one lone company standing against the winds & rescuing videogaming from the storms.
Atari 2600 sold 30 million. Nintendo incorporated that 30 million & added ANOTHER 30 to make over 60 million for the NES.

As much as the 3rd party likes to be rebellious, when push comes to shove I don't think all of them would go the suicidal route when things hit rock bottom.
The staff in those companies have to pay their bills, keep up their lifestyles.
They'll come to the Wii U reluctantly or not but they will come. And they'll bring their hit games with them.
That's when we'll see more conversions like with what happened with my co-worker on the Monster Hunter deal.

In fact I think a return to Nintendo will provide guidance to the 3rd party in gamecraft.
Their gamecraft was strongest when they were alongside Nintendo.
When was the last good Final Fantasy mainline series?
Lots of people say Final Fantasy X.
The immediate years after they left Nintendo behind, they still had the residue of Nintendo-influence.
But as time went on, they were guided by the movie-minded principles of Sony & money-minded principles of Microsoft.
Gamecraft went downhill as a result.

Same with the Resident Evil/Biohazard series.
Capcom makes Resident Evil for the PS1 in the first years of the Nintendo Exodus.
Two more mainline sequels follow for the PS1...the first of these sequels given an N64 version as a goodwill token.
Then in a brief return to Nintendo, Capcom remakes the original for N64's successor, the Gamecube; re-releases RE2 & RE3; makes a whole new prequel called Resident Evil 0; THEN makes a series redefining masterpiece with Resident Evil 4.
What happens after that?
Resident Evil 5 loses the core survival horror feel of the series turning into more of a straight-up action game.
Resident Evil 6 just degenerates into mediocrity.

The strengthening of gamecraft ALSO ensures that Wii U reaps the benefits.
It's less of a contraction & more of a shedding. Getting the dead flakes of skin off of this vibrant living being we call videogaming.
John Lucas

"Same with the Resident Evil/Biohazard series.
Capcom makes Resident Evil for the PS1 in the first years of the Nintendo Exodus.
Two more mainline sequels follow for the PS1...the first of these sequels given an N64 version as a goodwill token.
Then in a brief return to Nintendo, Capcom remakes the original for N64's successor, the Gamecube; re-releases RE2 & RE3; makes a whole new prequel called Resident Evil 0; THEN makes a series redefining masterpiece with Resident Evil 4.
What happens after that?
Resident Evil 5 loses the core survival horror feel of the series turning into more of a straight-up action game.
Resident Evil 6 just degenerates into mediocrity."

I must note that the best Resident Evil games where directed by Hideki Kamiya (He just finished wonderful 101) and Shinji Mikami, whom both left Capcom. I believe that is the real reason the rest of the games failed to live up to expectation. They simply lacked direction from the original creators and those who took over the franschise had no idea what made it special in the first place.

AH! And notice that Hideki Kamiya & Shinji Mikami were DEDICATED to making games exclusive for the Gamecube.
This Nintendo-dedicated piece of Capcom that eventually became Clover Studio brought the Viewtiful Joe games, the Resident Evil series all remade & added on to, & Killer7 to the Gamecube.
They supported Nintendo when everybody said Nintendo was down & out.
Mikami FOUGHT for RE4 Gamecube exclusivity & was overruled by the execs.

Capcom stomped out the Clovers & all that was left was Seeds.
These Seeds grew Platinum star-shaped leaves & now Nintendo reaps the benefits with The Wonderful 101.
I'm not surprised Platinum Games would want to become a 2nd party for Nintendo.
I think it would be the best fit. These ex-Capcom guys, some of the best from Capcom, bringing good gamecraft to Nintendo's platforms.
At one time I always thought Capcom was the most like Nintendo from the 3rd party.
They knew how to create classic characters that stood the test of time, unforgettable gameplay, excellent game music, & overall quality that makes you never question that their games were worth buying.

This is where Capcom started to REALLY change right there in the Gamecube era.
They already left in the Exodus but now they were getting in the way of the artists who wanted to create something unique.
As a result most of the people who made Capcom a trusted name left the company with the latest being Mega Man/Rockman co-creator Keiji Inafune.
Capcom was damn near built by the Famicom/NES & they wanted to act like this???
Now they do this on-disc DLC garbage & make you pay to unlock a character.

Those who remain in line with Nintendo's vision for the industry will become greater.
Those who resist this vision will eventually wither & decay.
Good that those ex-Capcom guys at Platinum Games are in line with Nintendo's vision.
And as a result I'm buying The Wonderful 101 when it comes out in a few days.
Ironic that the special powers in the game are all called UNITE.

I don't where that revelation about UNITY came from but man I'm glad it hit me.
John Lucas

You're starting understand me, Richard.
I care about developers. I care about the people who put their blood, sweat, & tears behind making a game for all of us to enjoy.

You see, the BEST PRICE for the customer is $0. ZERO. FREE.
Nobody passes up a free lunch.
If someone offers a free car with no strings attached & there's no worries of illegal shadiness around it, you don't hesitate. You pick it up.
If you have a coupon for a free Quarter Pounder, you go right to McDonald's & cash that in.
If the bank offered you free money in your account as a bonus for being such a loyal patron (fat chance!), you don't complain & you accept the free money.

But the BEST PRICE for the gamemaker is $∞. Infinity. As HIGH as they can get it.
They poured their lives into making these games & seek some reward for their efforts.
All the time they missed spending with family. All the long hours & stressful situations at the job.
All the ideas, the troubleshooting, the polishing, the crafting. All the finite life spent in the making of a game.
Nobody wants to work for nothing. Nobody wants to work for free.
If your employer put your through the ringer at work & when it came time for payday, he said "You should want to work for the love of the job!", there would probably be a Revolution in short time.

But both sides can't get what they want so a COMPROMISE is reached.
The price is somewhere between ZERO & INFINITY.

See, the money system is a Zero-Sum Game. Finite. It's by design an unfair system.
The only way it can function is through redistribution AKA exchange.
Say there're 100 people thirsty for a drink & 100 cups of cool frosty refreshment for drinking.
One person gets 80 cups. Another person gets 10 cups.
90 cups have been taken by 2 people leaving the other 98 to pick from the remaining 10.
...It's safe to say that everybody won't get a drink.

There are 3 ways for all of those 98 to get a drink.
#1: DIRECT Method. The ones with with those most drinks give their excess to the ones without drinks.
This is called Charity, Taxes, among other things.
#2: INDIRECT Method. They make more drinks for the 98. But this reduces the value of the drinks the ones with the excess have.
80/100 is more than 80/200. This is also called Inflation since the area of the cups has expanded.
#3: FORCEFUL DIRECT Method. The ones without a drink TAKE the drinks from the ones with the excess of drinks.
This is called Revolution.

One way or another an exchange is taking place. One way or another a redistribution is taking place.

The nature of human greed has one wanting to keep all resources to himself/herself.
The nature of human weakness shows that we must depend on one another which offsets human greed to varying degrees.
In the money system this is represented as a Pyramid.
At the top of the Pyramid are those with the MOST resources but the amount of bricks here are Few.
At the bottom of the Pyramid are those with the LEAST resources but the amount of bricks here are Many.
(And of course it goes without saying that the entire pyramid rests on the foundation which is always at the bottom)
Between these extremes are varying amounts of bricks showing the level of resources.
The closer you are to the bottom, the less you have. The closer you are to the top the more you have.

This is why there will ALWAYS be more Poor than Rich.
And 'Middle Class' is just a high level of Poor because you're not Rich until your money works for you. Not you work for your money.
BECAUSE there will always be more Poor than Rich, you don't make big sales until you sell in prices they can afford.
So this skews prices much Closer to ZERO than INFINITY.
This is known as the Mass Market.

Mass Market is how you become a Massive Company.
The rich have just about everything. It's the poor who have little to nothing so you sell to them so they can have something.
That's how Wal-Mart became the world's biggest retailer.
They didn't sell to the country club guys in yachts, they sold to the poor & 'middle class' (which I like to refer to 'Poor First Class' sort of like Private First Class).
That's how Nintendo became the world's biggest videogame company.
They kept prices low enough for the poorer people to afford YET still gave top quality products.

We may quibble over the details of this eternal Compromise but we understand that the Compromise is Just.
I, as a customer, want low prices for videogames that enhance my life.
But in recognition of the gamemaker who makes these games I want them to get some reward for enhancing my life.
It shows that I respect them & honor their hard work.
They show me that they respect their customers by providing good quality products at fair reasonable prices.

I feel that Nintendo is the best keeper of this tricky balance overall.
They keep the value high enough so that the gamemakers can be significantly rewarded...
...but they also keep the value low enough so that the customers can reasonably afford it.

If you make everything Freemium, oh yeah the customers are gonna be happy.
But they'll also take you for granted because we usually don't respect things we get for free.
A little kid who doesn't have to support a household & the bills therein always looks at stuff at the store, on a commercial & says "I want! I want!"
He's subsidized by the parents in that household so money means nothing to him/her. He/she can easily get spoiled if this is not put in check.
The 25 year old who lives in an apartment, has to work a 9-to-5, has to put up with frequent car problems, has to buy his/her own clothes, has to pay for his/her own food, has to pay his/her own utilities...
This 25 year old is not so eager to say "I want! I want!" when they see stuff at the store or on a commercial.
They might "Want! Want!" but that budget says "Not! Not!"
They respect the value of a dollar & they are more discerning with their purchases.

Once everything goes Freemium, customers get spoiled & will eventually even balk at paying a penny for a game.
They will have so many choices that they never cross the threshhold into the Premium side of Freemium.
They just play the trials & move on to the next one.
Without reward the developers lose incentive to pour their blood, sweat, & tears into game development then start to put out cheaply designed money-grabbers hoping to trap customers into purchases.
The relationship between customer & gamemaker becomes antagonistic instead of respectful.
Both sides see each other as the enemy to conquer.
Gamemaker looks to squeeze as much money out of customers as possible. Customer looks to squeeze as much play out of gamemaker as possible.

Yes, I love Nintendo as a game developer. I think they're the best in the business.
But I love Nintendo EVEN MORE as the groundskeeper that keep these gaming fields bountiful & prosperous.
I love how Nintendo allows not only themselves to harvest the bumper crops, I love how they indirectly allows all in the game industry to harvest these bumper crops.

It's easy to say "Oh those companies don't care about you. They just want your money!"
Of course, they want your money. They DESERVE your money. They put in work to create something you enjoy, right?
But Nintendo cares about this business & it shows in their actions.
Gamers have taken Nintendo for granted. They give us durable sturdy systems. High quality games year after year after year.
They transform the way you interact with the game time & time again. And they do all this at pretty low prices comparatively.

Game Boys survive Gulf War bombings yet the system only costs $89.

Gamecubes get dragged behind a car at high speed & survives yet the system only costs $199.

You think PlayStations & XBoxes could stand that kind of abuse?
You think Sony & Microsoft care about making products that could?
John Lucas