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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA: PS3 to outsell 360 next year, Wii still on top

Are the people at EA on crack???? Wii selling only 12-14 million. There is no way the Wii will sell less than 20 million in 2008. I didn't realize the developers were still underestimating the Wii.



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Those numbers look mostly reasonnable although I would say Wii sales in the US are probably going to be higher than that, maybe by a million or 2. I don't think the PS3 will sell as much as the Xbox360 in the US but it will come a lot closer than in 2007, it will however destroy the Xbox360 in Europe ( Fortress UK will fall too, if you look at the latest numbers, PS3 weekly sales are slowly catching up weekly Xbox360 sales there too).

Don't forget they don't list Japan sales so for WW sales of Wii you probably need to add like 4 Million units..



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Ail said:

Those numbers look mostly reasonnable although I would say Wii sales in the US are probably going to be higher than that.

Don't forget they don't list Japan sales so for WW sales of Wii you probably need to add like 4 Million units..


Crap, you're right. Their 9.5-11.5 ps3 estimate doesn't include Japan either. That's insane. 0_o

Though I think that they may have lumped Japan in with Europe, hence their ps3 estimate being so much higher than their 360 estimate. 



definitely underestimating the 360 a bit and overestimating the ps3 a bit and really underestimating the wii. no one they don't try to put effort into wii games. they are still in a state of denial about the system.



end of '08 predictions: wii - 43 million,  360 - 25 million, ps3 - 20 million

 

Games I've beat recently: Super Mario Galaxy, Knights of the Old Republic, Shadow of the Collossus

 

Proud owner of wii, gamecube, xbox, ps2, dreamcast, n64, snes, genesis, 3DO, nes, atari, intellivision, unisonic tournament 2000, and gameboy

EA doesn't sell much to Japan, so for their purposes whatever systems are sold there aren't a part of their universe.



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Bodhesatva said:
Lightning08 said:
EA are going further though, they are expecting the PS3 to sweep the 360 aside in Europe and if all the PS3 games come out as planned that is exactly what Sony are going to do. Completely annihilate the 360 in Europe.

Outside of the UK. Wheras the PS2 demolished the Xbox in the EU, I don't think the PS3's marketshare in Europe could ever be as strong simply because the UK is the largest market in the EU and its 360-heavy.

I expect perhaps 60/40 sales in favor of the PS3 or perhaps 66/33. We'll see, though.

By the end of the year UK will be spilt between the PS3/360 but the rest of Europe won't be, they will heavily favor PS3. You see, the thing about the UK that makes them the largest is they are supporting all platforms and not just one but the rest of Europe don't seem to be following that rule. Places like France, Italy, Spain and Germany which make up a lot of Europe will heavily favor the PS3. If UK were rejecting the PS3 than you would have a point but the UK are showing the PS3 just as much love as the 360.

If I am wrong I will gladly eat crow but games like Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid 4 etc.. are very big in the UK and they will move a lot of systems for the PS3 there. 



Bodhesatva said:

I think they overestimate the PS3 modestly, underestimate the 360 quite a bit, and underestimate the Wii modestly.

The most important thing: the PS3 will not sell as much as the 360 in America this year. It's very unlikely, at least. America has already made its choices, I think.


 I thought so too about the 360.. but looking at the VG numbers the 360 only sold 2 million units in Europe last year.

 

Microsoft really needs to get their game in gear in Europe... cutbacks, promotions, marketing. They have the game library, they're just not selling the console properly.



Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)

                   

makingmusic476 said:
Ail said:

Those numbers look mostly reasonnable although I would say Wii sales in the US are probably going to be higher than that.

Don't forget they don't list Japan sales so for WW sales of Wii you probably need to add like 4 Million units..


Crap, you're right. Their 9.5-11.5 ps3 estimate doesn't include Japan either. That's insane. 0_o

Though I think that they may have lumped Japan in with Europe, hence their ps3 estimate being so much higher than their 360 estimate. 


I don't think Japan is included for 2 reasons.

1- They mention Western sales

2- Japan isn't a market where EA is very present.



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

This is clearly ignoring Japan... don't keep going overboard because they are not using Japan figures for any estimates.

Still, Wii is likely to do 4-5 million in Japan, which certainly means their Wii estimate for the West is still too low IMO. 20 million is pretty much a given minimum for Wii.... which means they are 1-3mil low for Wii at least.

The PS3 number I would agree with if it were worldwide, but Japan should see 2 million sales surely, so they are 2 mil high for PS3 imo... probably mostly in America (how they expect PS3 to match 360 there I don't know, perhaps 2009, but not 08)

360 looks about right, as taking Japan away doesn't make much difference.



gebx said:
Bodhesatva said:

I think they overestimate the PS3 modestly, underestimate the 360 quite a bit, and underestimate the Wii modestly.

The most important thing: the PS3 will not sell as much as the 360 in America this year. It's very unlikely, at least. America has already made its choices, I think.


 I thought so too about the 360.. but looking at the VG numbers the 360 only sold 2 million units in Europe last year.

 

Microsoft really needs to get their game in gear in Europe... cutbacks, promotions, marketing. They have the game library, they're just not selling the console properly.


I don't think they can reverse the trend in Europe for several reasons.

1- They got really bad publicity for the RROD, even if the percentage of Xbox360 affected was small, it's not just in European mentality to buy something for 400 euros and replace it if it breaks, when you buy something that cost that much, you expect it to work !( I'm french so at least that's how french ppls think, heck I've been in the US for 7 years now and I never buy a replacement plan for anything I buy at Best Buy, I just expect it to last, sometime it comes back to bite me...).

2- Brand fidelity is an important factor in Europe. A lot of players have been happy with Sony so far ( except with the price of the PS3, but heh, Sony TV are more expensive than the other brands and still sells very well, because you somehow expect them to be better ( not saying it's truth, that's how it's perceived)) and don't see why they would need to switch brand ( Sony has a few arguments that speak for itself there, like the lifetime of their consoles and the support they provide, I'm guessing dropping Xbox after a few years wasn't very popular with those that picked the console either). For your typical french gamer either console is a huge investment and if parents help in the purchase, Sony once again has a much better image than MSFT among european consumers.

3) PS3 beat Xbox360 over the 2007 Holydays period at a time where the game catalog clearly favored the Xbox360, I don't think MSFT will ever be again in a situation where its game catalog is that much superior to the one Sony has.



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !