So PS3 is maintaining 20k+ per week in Japan so far this year, while Wii has sold that much all year.  The gap is about 3.5m right now.  Wii may be disontinued there after this year and even if it's not the sales are becoming really irrelevant.  I think PS3 could pull this off just barely if it stays around till 2017 or so.  It's really hard to see how well it will sell after PS4 is out there.  If GT6 comes to PS3 and MGS GZ does well I could see it maintaining pretty well in 2014 even after PS4 releases.  With the Wii being basically dead I think the final numbers could be just about even with Sony keeping PS3 around till it outdoes Wii.

No, because according to the internet, the normal console cycle is only 5 years (or when Nintendo creates a new console, which ever comes first) so any numbers after that are void and invalid.

you have to be one of the most unbiased fans on this site.  I'm not gonna lie Sony is my favorite hardware maker, but I always get the Nintendo systems eventually for their first party titles and it's nice to get honest predictions from people.

well PS3 is down YoY in japan so i dont know. how much did it sell last year?

I like the nuance of catching, gives the impression something is falling.

IF ps3 can maintain 20k sales it would still take over 3 years.

sorry, but no. it will bite a decent chunk out of the gap but it will never overtake it.

VGC say 1.23m but it's undertracked for sure, their numbers don't match with the Media Create ones.

For me it can surpass the Wii in late 2016(there will be more than one price drop for sure until then).

last year PS3 sold about 1.2m in Japan while Wii sold a little less than .5m.  Wii seems to have a sharper drop off as it's practically non-existent this year with PS3 just about outselling Wii's whole 2013 this week.  Wii seems on the brink of death with just 23,000 in 1/4 of a year.  Holidays aren't as big in Japan and Wii will have the least expensive successor so probably fastest migration to next gen.

it should be around right though. but even though at that rate it would take ps3 about 3 years to catch the Wii without sales droping, so i wouldnt count on it. specially with the PS4 coming out this year and the WiiU receiving more big games this christmas

Not gonna happen. PS3 won't drop to "dead" levels like the Wii did any time soon, but it won't close that 3.5m gap either.