i'm going to become rich and famous after i invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet.

Source: http://bash.org/?top

I think it´s crazyman himself that created that account so we could feel sorry for him and so he could explain about himself without actually agreeing that he failed in this thread as he probably does in real life.

Who knows...all we know is Crazzyman is not sane. And I dont feel sorry for him..Well unless he has some mental disorders than we would have to lay off him.

Crazy's plan backfired... this is a 100% anti sony thread now

ROFL

most of it is just that, speculation. You are pulling a lot from thin air with some of the connections when there is no guaranteed connection there, but it is interesting to see the comparison as the numbers are so similar.

It depends on the game. Games that tend to be hard-core usually have higher first week sales, and then fall off massively afterwards. Casuals games start off slow but sell forever. Mixed games have decent first weeks and long legs. Here are som examples:

Hardcore: FFX in Japan 1.9 million first week; 3.02 million lifetime; percent of lifetime sold first week: 62% (this is one of the best examples I know of... DQVIII is another good example. We're also missing a lot of non-Japanese data, so it's hard to find solid examples)
Casual: Nintendogs in NA 250k first week; a scary 6.59 million lifetime; percent of lifetime sold first week: 3% (the best example of legs EVER). Others is worse (167k first week, 9.08 million LT; only 1% sold first week)
Mixed: Halo 3 in NA 2.84 million first week; 5.29 million LT (and still selling); 53% of LT total in first week
Another mixed: SSB:M in Japan 360k first week; 1.44 million LT; 25% of LT sales in first week

As you can see, I believe SSB:B falls in the "mixed" category, meaning that it'll have (and in Japan, has) good first week sales, and then long legs. I think 85% drop first week is really steep, but it may not be. If it doesn't hit a million next week though I'll be so surprised. It's important to remember that the GC was dying fast and hard in Japan (it sold a million in 2001, 2002, and 2003, then died), so not only did it not have the userbase to support a good opening week, it didn't have the continuing growing userbase to support the casual legs (Nintendogs wouldn't sell so well if the DS died tomorrow, for example). I think it'll be more like this:

1st week: 840k
2nd week: at least 300k (64% decrease)
3rd week: 150k (50% decrease)
4th week:  100k (33% decrease)
5th week: 75k (25% decrease)
6th week and beyond: 45k or so

This means it should pass SSB:M in it's 5th week or so. I also think it'll sit at 15k or so for about... as long as the Wii keeps selling. Japanese don't seem to have any love for 3d platformers (or so I've heard) so I think it'll do much better than SMG in the first few weeks, and especially beyond week 6, probably leveling off 15-25k a week as long as the Wii continues to sell.  We'll have to see though. SSB:M sold nearly 95% of it's total sales in Japan in its first 14 weeks, but I think that's more because the GC didn't bring in many more people, so it didn't have anyone to sell to. I would almost say 2 million in Japan by the end of the year.. but that might be pushing it. And I also believe SMG will reach 1.5, even though that's nearly 2x the number of "Mariofans" that are living in Japan, because we all know that if you aren't a fan before SMG, you can't/won't buy the game. Because it's impossible to become a fan (as I have become, with SMG being my first platformer ever).

Edit: I had all the links to the graphs that show this stuff... but I forgot to add them. They aren't hard to look up though, if anyone doesn't trust me. 

Woot! Thanks for the analysis. CrazzyMan probably will like my analysis better though.  That's a large part of the reason I went with a model that seemed to correspond to Melee.  

TalonMan im being funny

sorry if that offends you.

I'll stop only because i already have, not becuase you told me.

BTW childish? city slicker, funny ass, smooth ass motherfucker is what I like to call it. :)

not trying to be smart but if you look above they are amused.

:)

Japan Wii top 10:

1 Wii Sports
Nintendo 2,800,876
2 Hajimete no Wii
Nintendo 2,225,829
3 Wii Fit
Nintendo 1,350,701
4 Mario Party 8
Nintendo 1,222,997
5 Super Mario Galaxy
Nintendo 895,764
6 Dairantou Smash Brothers X
Nintendo 842,536
7 Odoru Made in Wario
Nintendo 671,099
8 Zelda no Densetsu Twilight Princess
Nintendo 577,427
9 Super Paper Mario
Nintendo 561,191
10 Mario & Sonic at Bejing Olympics
Nintendo 502,520

PS3 Japan top 10:
1 Minna no Golf 5
Sony 442,652
2 Shin Sangoku Musou 5
Koei 390,709
3 Gundam Musou
Koei 293,357
4 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008
Konami 286,375
5 Devil May Cry 4
Capcom 208,837
6 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue
Sony 206,226
7 Ridge Racer 7
Namco 149,861
8 Resistance: Jinrui Botsuraku no Hi
Sony 139,507
9 Kidou Senshi Gundam: Target in Sight
Bandai 139,296
10 Blade Storm: Hyakunen Sensou
Koei 137,007

Now lets put it into perspective...
Total PS2 top 10 (8 years running)
1 Dragon Quest VIII
Enix 3,609,295
2 Final Fantasy X
Square 2,734,784
3 Final Fantasy XII
Square 2,329,314
4 Final Fantasy X-2
Square 2,111,206
5 Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec
Sony 1,868,963
6 Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome
Enix 1,645,661
7 Minna no Golf 3
Sony 1,382,698
8 World Soccer Winning Eleven 6
Konami 1,157,452
9 Dynasty Warriors 4
Koei 1,132,227
10 World Soccer Winning Eleven 7
Konami 1,128,178

Will Galaxy reach 1.8 in Japan? maybe, maybe not. 3-4 years left + Price Drops (Consoles and Games) + Great Game - Casual Expansion - newer games = still maybe, maybe not. Either way, in JPN 900k is very good.

18 games for PS2 hit 1mil+. 22 Million PS2 Owners, 5.5 Million Wii Owners. I don't know, we shall see.