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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS3 install base to overtake 360 in EU on Summer of 07'

The Fury on 25 January 2008
Reasonable said:
Well, ignoring sales curves and going by VG total numbers I see the following:

360 has been in 'Others' market for around 25 months (giving it 3x holidays as it launched around November 2005 right?)

PS3 has been in 'Others' market for around 10 months (giving it 1x holidays as it launched around March 2007 right?)

360 = 5.44 M
PS3 = 3.90 M

Now, ignorning timing (i.e. weekly sales and spikes) the evidence would be that PS3 has sold 72% (roughly) of current 360 LTD in 'Others' with approx 40% of time in market as 360 and with only 1 holiday season vs 3 for 360.

So yes, unless MS turn around sales for 360 in 'Others' PS3 will absolutely catch it - the question is when.

Now simply extrapolating forward from current average difference in 'Others' is useless as the consoles see holiday spikes, spikes for price changes, spikes for big games, etc.

If I had patience (actually time) I'd look at time series curves, then factor in major releases for both, etc. but I suspect that unless anything major happens PS3 will catch 360 by end of 2008 for sure (inclusive of holiday spike) but perhaps earlier if games such as MGS and GTA IV drive big spikes.

Of course 360 could lower price, GTA IV is on 360 as well, etc. so of course MS could prevent PS3 overtaking it in 'Others' this year but I think it will need to drive some serious effort behind it as the base data clearly shows that PS3 is in a position to catch 360 based on LTD sales and time to reach them so far vs 360.

Or did I miss something with my numbers?

 All good, except Australia and Others in Other are not Europe (360 PS3 difference in Europe  only is about 900,000)...unless we are just talking PAL here?



Hmm, pie.

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Reasonable on 25 January 2008
The Fury said:
Reasonable said:
Well, ignoring sales curves and going by VG total numbers I see the following:

360 has been in 'Others' market for around 25 months (giving it 3x holidays as it launched around November 2005 right?)

PS3 has been in 'Others' market for around 10 months (giving it 1x holidays as it launched around March 2007 right?)

360 = 5.44 M
PS3 = 3.90 M

Now, ignorning timing (i.e. weekly sales and spikes) the evidence would be that PS3 has sold 72% (roughly) of current 360 LTD in 'Others' with approx 40% of time in market as 360 and with only 1 holiday season vs 3 for 360.

So yes, unless MS turn around sales for 360 in 'Others' PS3 will absolutely catch it - the question is when.

Now simply extrapolating forward from current average difference in 'Others' is useless as the consoles see holiday spikes, spikes for price changes, spikes for big games, etc.

If I had patience (actually time) I'd look at time series curves, then factor in major releases for both, etc. but I suspect that unless anything major happens PS3 will catch 360 by end of 2008 for sure (inclusive of holiday spike) but perhaps earlier if games such as MGS and GTA IV drive big spikes.

Of course 360 could lower price, GTA IV is on 360 as well, etc. so of course MS could prevent PS3 overtaking it in 'Others' this year but I think it will need to drive some serious effort behind it as the base data clearly shows that PS3 is in a position to catch 360 based on LTD sales and time to reach them so far vs 360.

Or did I miss something with my numbers?

 All good, except Australia and Others in Other are not Europe (360 PS3 difference in Europe  only is about 900,000)...unless we are just talking PAL here?


To be honest I just took VG numbers for 360 and PS3 in 'Others' and looked up what seemed to be the common launch date of PS3 and 360 outside of US/Japan.

Digging in further you can see 360 is still ahead in UK and other territories but behind PS3 in others.  All I wanted to show is that, in terms of the total sales of each vs how long they've been in the market PS3 clearly does have a change of being the leader in non US/Japan territories (vs 360) if things continue roughly as they have.

 



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

Branko2166 on 26 January 2008
Parokki said:
Branko2166 said:

Weren't you the same guy that said uncharted has no chance of selling a million copies?

"I doubt the sales of this game have as much to do with its legs as being launched right before the holidays. No chance for a million, sorry." Posted on: 12/19/07, 03:03

Having said that it should be an interesting battle in Europe this year. While I am not sure when it will happen I am certain it will surpass the 360 some time this year.


That right, I made a prediction that was wrong, and I've eaten quite a few crows for it already. To my defence, it wasn't exactly an outrageous prediction to make, considering how bad the legs of PS3 games generally are. Besides, I'm nowhere near as wrong with Uncharted as your "Wii - 33M" prediction is going to be. =P

We're both being optimistic about the console we like more here, but I think we can agree that both have a reasonable chance of being the second best selling home console in Europe this year.


 I agree that the battle in Europe will be more between the wii and ps3. What will be telling is how they both do when the ps3 introduces its next pricecut along with possibly some bundles. Although regardless of what happens they should both do pretty well there.

 Regarding my predictions, I made them more then a year in advance and if I am wrong then I will be happy to admit it. I won't be changing my sig regardless of how sales progress this year.

 

 



 

 

JGarret on 26 January 2008

Regarding the PS3 and the 360...I think by the end of this generation,the PS3 will not have caught up to the 360 in North America,but will have a bigger install base worldwide,putting it in the 2nd place.