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Forums - Sales Discussion - Who do you think will win the console wars?

Garcian Smith on 22 January 2008

Question: Where are these high PS3 figures coming from? The system didn't even manage 10 million through two Christmases, so why and/or how would it reach 70 million in 3-4 years?



"'Casual games' are something the 'Game Industry' invented to explain away the Wii success instead of actually listening or looking at what Nintendo did. There is no 'casual strategy' from Nintendo. 'Accessible strategy', yes, but ‘casual gamers’ is just the 'Game Industry''s polite way of saying what they feel: 'retarded gamers'."

 -Sean Malstrom

 

 

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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 January 2008
MrMafoo said:
dtewi said:
.....


TEN YEARS!?!??!?!?


Sorry, I know I have to respect your opinion, but I made it VERY clear in another post that 10 years is IMPOSSIBLE.

The PS2 will probably make it 10 years, and it does not have the advantage of being the best BD player out there.

CPU wise, I doubt the next MS box will surpass the PS3 (it's even possible the PS4 will use the CELL). The only real limitation for years is memory, and the PS2 is chugging along with what little it has.

The fact that the Wii is doing so well is why I think the PS3 will have such a long life. Right now the people who buy the PS3 want the most technologically advanced games, the people buying the Wii want fun games at the expense of visuals. They find more value in less tech for less money.

I think the market that the Wii is excelling in, the PS3 will take over in 4-5 years.

 


 Sorry but no, the market that Wii is tapping cares nothing for MGS or FF, what they want is Wii sports, Wii play, Wii fit, etc.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 22 January 2008
Garcian Smith said:
Question: Where are these high PS3 figures coming from? The system didn't even manage 10 million through two Christmases, so why and/or how would it reach 70 million in 3-4 years?

 Ironic that these are the same people who think my predictions for Wii are unlikely



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

dtewi on 22 January 2008

Blu-Ray adoption is going to increase sales Garcian. And with the combination of triple AAA games and a low price, it can sell 60 million.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

TWRoO on 22 January 2008

I would say the total market for all 3 together will be 200 million at least... probably nearer 210 unless Wii achieves blue ocean a lot more than it has so far... so first think of that.

Japan may have little growth in home consoles, so 30-35mil
America might get a reasonable growth, from about 70-75 last gen, to about 90 this gen.
Europe could get a huge boost over last gen, from about 60m to 80-85m.
then there are the other regions of Asia which are hard to predict, but surely 5m minimum.

so based on that I'd say;
Wii 120million
PS3 55 million
360 35 million

but there are many things that could change the total market size [China/India success and Blue ocean, as well as Blue ray]
Wii has the potential for 200mil+ but I think it will fall short... could be 150mil, giving a total market of 240 million [60 more than last gen]

So thats;
150mil
55mil
35mil



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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 January 2008
dtewi said:
Blu-Ray adoption is going to increase sales Garcian. And with the combination of triple AAA games and a low price, it can sell 60 million.

 People aren't going to buy a PS3 for Blu-ray dewi, they'll buy a cheaper blu-ray player seperately

 

 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

NeoRatt on 22 January 2008

360: 75 Million

PS3: 75 Million

Wii: 75 Million



Avinash_Tyagi on 22 January 2008
NeoRatt said:
360: 75 Million

PS3: 75 Million

Wii: 75 Million

 Hedging your bets?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

dtewi on 22 January 2008

Many people are going to see the PS3 as the better investment though for it plays video games as well and has plenty of other enjoyable features.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

Damstr8 on 22 January 2008

Wii - 105 Million

PS3 - 82 Million

360 - 68 Million