Plans are as malleable as the future itself. Sony may have intentions, but that doesn't mean that Sony is on anything like a fixed heading. They certainly have a right to arrive to market at any time they feel would be most beneficial to their bottom line. The market itself will define what is possible, and what is reasonable. As will the competition as far as things are concerned. I have explained this before, and I will explain it again. Sony doesn't exist in a vacuum. This shouldn't need to be explained to anyone at this point.
What the market conditions are like. What the competition is doing, and how they are doing it. Hell the overall health of the company itself. All will have an impact on the decision making process at Sony. What Sony is going to be looking for is the position that gives them the greatest competitive edge. That may not be what you as a fan may particularly want. If that means waiting another year Sony will do that. If it means Sony has to wait even a few years Sony will do that. If that means Sony leaves the market then Sony will do that. Sony looks out for Sony, and not for you the fan, or hell your ego for that matter.
That said there are three variables that are going almost entirely ignored in this thread. Which will really dictate how things will play out next generation. One is the more obvious how the economy will fare in the upcoming year. Europe could tip over the edge, and that would have a disastrous impact on the bottom line at Sony. Not only that, but it would have a ripple effect globally. If that happens Sony has a pretty secure position in staying put with their current hardware. Hell such a global economic situation might have Microsoft putting its own plans on hold for a couple years.
Number two is how Nintendo fairs with its new hardware. This could be a real barometer for market demand as far as new hardware is concerned. What will Sony see if Nintendo the previous generations market leader has to struggle mightily to match current hardware, or gasp fares worse then current hardware. They will see what would amount to a fairly toxic environment to launch a console into. In such a case it wouldn't matter all that much to lose to Microsoft as long as they don't have to lose horribly when it came to their ledger.
Number three has to be how powerful Microsoft makes its next console, and the price point that they are willing to launch with. It is easy to say Sony doesn't have to loss lead, or doesn't have to lose all that much. What isn't at all easy to say is that Sony can afford to lose the other wars. The price war, or the value war. If Microsoft matches Sony, but has a much lower retail price that would be a serious problem for Sony. Which holds equally true if the two have price parity, but Microsoft has a machine that is undeniably two to three times more powerful. Sony may not have a choice as far as loss leading is concerned, or they may choose a more logical alternative. Which would be waiting until they could both match and profit.
The important thing that is getting lost in this discussion is that consoles aren't like other electronic products. You can make ten television models, lose on half of them, but win enough on the other half to come ahead. When it comes to consoles how you fare on the first product directly impacts how you will fare on the products attached to it, or what kind of stigma it will have on previous products. For instance if the PS4 fails hard it will actually have a fairly disastrous impact on lingering PS3 sales. Yeah I know it is crazy but the bleed through into the next gen can run both ways.
By the way I think most of you are over gauging the after generation sales of the PS3 by applying how the PS2 did perform early in this generation. We are talking different beasts here. The PS3 doesn't have the largest library in the market by far. It wasn't the lead console this generation, and last but not least. Unless the PS4 is supremely overpriced it will not defer brand loyalists into a holding pattern. It will probably not be the case that people say I am going to buy a PS3 until the PS4 comes down. Consumers will learn from this generation, and instead of just buying a hold off device will simply wait half a year for a price war to take its toll.