Alby_da_Wolf said:
DélioPT said:
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About the extending the life cycle... i really don`t know about that.
The thing about price helping expand audiences is that although we have seen that in past generations, this generation has been abnormal, in a way. By this time everyone would have new consoles on the market and the last generation would be 99$ or less on the market. But what we see is that none of that happen and isn`t even close to happen. So the question is: that normal 99$ market is still there and how big is it?
Prices have remained so high for so long that there`s a risk that people just gave up on waiting (a fraction of it, that is). I think Wii, this holiday season will be the proof of how big that market is. Last holiday Wii sold very well but Nintendo probably has Walmart to thank with it`s 99$ promotion. This year pretty much everyone will be using that price if there`s no official price cut.
The same goes for the HD twins who saw not only discounts but packed in games to go with the discount. If all we see this year, in official price drops ends up being a repetition of last year´s holiday prices', i don`t really know how lasting or how broading can the effects of a price cut be seeing as a portion of that market was eaten last year.
A 99$ price tag doesn`t garantee "everlasting" sales even if at a slow pace.
What i have been seeing since the N64 days is that only PS1 and PS2 have seen support by retailers mainly because there were a lot of games available and they were the market choices of their generation. And if you remember only one of each generation survived at 99$; the other two ended their lifes shortly after their successors arrived on the market.
In this generation, Wii is the market choice and will also be 99$ very soon, i think, and that might just be it`s strong point: establishing itself soon as the cheap console of choice at 99$ (or less) which might even help sustain a good software market for a few years seeing as developing for Wii isn`t expensive.
Of course, this is what i believe it will happen.
Xbox 360 and PS3 at 99$ will eat into each other`s market... as usual.
That`s why i believe they will both be short lived at 99$. That and the fact that none of them dominate both markets: US belongs to Xbox 360 and Europe to PS3. While in the time of PS1 and PS2, both consoles dominated both markets which helped sales after their respective successors arrived. In a way there were more people to sell them to.
The market hasn`t seen two consoles, who go after the same market, be alive at the same time after they become old-gen... at least i can`t remember a case of that happening.
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I agree on your points and I agree that price cuts, even with enough games, won't let them reach PS2. But considering their current lifetime sales PS1 is at reach, Not guaranteed, but reachable if they don't commit too many mistakes. But to confirm or deny anything we'll have to wait for cuts to actually happen and Wii U to launch and see their short, and mid term effects. In the longer term also PS4 and XB720 will matter and unless a miracle happen, we already know PS3 and XB360 won't repeat PS2's stellar performance even after this gen's launch was completed. Alas VGC's charts don't offer anymore data on the old platforms except HW and SW lifetime totals (and not only new data on them aren't released anymore, but PS2, GC and XB even disappeared from existing charts where they were present, existing detailed data on them have been removed), otherwise we could compare PS1, PS2, GC, XB, XB360 and PS3 lifetime, yearly and weekly sales at the same point in their respective lifecycles, to try and position their respective trends... 
Just one thing: the three competitors are much more even than in past gens, but even right now current gen is already bigger overall than past gen in its entire lifecycle, we complain about sluggy sales, but this gen is already over 220M home consoles sold while last gen hasn't reached 200M yet (but PS2 is still selling, maybe it could still happen): this tells us that the overall home consoles market has already grown more than 10% bigger than last gen and it's still growing, although slower than at its peak. We get a pessimistic picture because we compare this gen YoY with itself, but if we could compare it YoY with last gen and also the one before we could see that PS2's single console peak is far away, but the overall yearly and lifetime maxima of all consoles put together are reached by this gen.
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PS1 is (USA, Europe, Japan, Rest of the World)
Xbox 360 is
PS3 is
You see, although Xbox 360 looks bound to outsell PS1 numbers' is the US, the gap is just too big for both consoles to reach PS1`s 104 million consoles. At the pace they are selling this year and how sales will decrease even more when Xbox 720 and PS4 arrive, i just don`t see them reaching those numbers.
Each would need something like another 40 million consoles to do it.
According to Vgchartz, Xbox 360 sold almost 14 million last year and PS3 sold past that, but those were their best years. It would take another 3 years like those for them to reach the 100 million and with how sales have been going, Wii U and PS4 and Xbox 720 around the corner...
Yes, it`s true that the market grew a lot this generation in terms of consoles sold but i don`t think it necessarily reflects an increase of that size on the number of gamers. I`ll explain: Wii does have a role on that, it`s obvious. But at the same time, it`s also true that a lot of Wii owners bought a Xbox 360 or PS3. I don`t know how many but i believe and from what people say, it seems the percentage is at least relevant.
PS2`s generation didn`t have that second (or third) console purchase, as sales of Xbox and GC seem to indicate.
To me, those are the two factors that made this generation bigger then the last one - and this one is far from over.
Will it happen again next gen? Honestly i don´t think so! :D
In the end, if somehow Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3 could still be market relevant with Wii U, PS4 and Xbox 720, it would be the first time where 6 consoles all sold in relevant and normal amounts in a generation. What we have seen so far is the new generation with a consoles from the last one.
I think there might be a factor in PS3 and Xbox 360`s favour to let them last longer: new software.
As of now i don`t have a clear idea how publishers will support 4/5 consoles in terms of ports and originals (Xbox360/PS3/PS4/Xbox 720 or those four plus Wii U). Xbox 360 and and PS3 have good attach ratios, but if the transition to the new consoles happens fast (same market as target) the software base for these consoles could take a serious hit.
