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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 39 - Resonance of Fate Arena

spurgeonryan said:
You know what? Screw you theprof. I do not trust you or Mario. Get some other dog to follow you around. It all seemed like it all was such a struggle to get where we are, but mafia sure gave not much of a struggle. Instead of not giving up trucks gave up. Links, NoCtis, and nen have played the lets give or or vote for us game as well as you in the beginning. I say we vote for Mario or the Prof. We should have a decent amount of town to survive if we are wrong. It is all too easy. This should not be like this.

Rol it is not this easy, don't listen to them. Plus this is your chance to take theprof out! He is playing everyone here. NoCtis, what do you think? Is this a super trap?

How many votes for a lynch today?

mafia is screwed, they were handicapped by stefl, they do not want to play.

You protected me last night and there is no kill! Doesn't that clue you in that they attacked me?

And I was the one who told you that even if you protected the right person, it is likely that the person is still mafia. Do you really think that as mafia I would have had myself targeted just in case you protected me? Or have my own mafia block me to get you to think we are town? It is NOT that complicated.

tl;dr I'M the one who told you not to fully trust whoever you docced, you protected me, there is no kill. If I were mafia I would have told you "whoever you doc'd is likely town". The motive makes no sense!

Your fortune:"He who seeks will find."

 



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The only question we have right now is if there is indeed a bus driver.

Last night, the only thing I can imagine to have happened in which nen is innocent is that he was bus driven with a mafia...in which case, the item I pick up here would not be the 11.91 auto whatever (according to my theory that the "killer gets the item" extrapolated to lynches. It is imperative that I survive again so that we know if mario's investigation was bus driven or not.
So again, protect me or mario.
watcher, watch any one of the three of us (or pick whoever, since mafia will know we are all traps they might go after someone else).

Also, the kill attempt does point at linkz as the killer. He is the only one here I would consider smart enough to go after someone who is likely protected. But I won't immediately cast suspicions his way because I have a feeling he is the role "jester". A role that tries to get himself killed.



spurgeonryan said:
Which is strange. If I was mafia I would go after you, since I would have figured that Mario was protected by myself. I would not have even wasted my time on Mario.

Funny thing is I did Protect Mario.

Yet here you stand.

So that makes me a suspect? Because they tried to kill mario????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

All that means is that mafia played WIFOM with you and lost.

Here's how it goes. Mario is the obvious protect. Mafia knows this and so goes to kill me. You, knowing that mario is too obvious to kill, go to protect me. Mafia, knowing that you know that mario is too obvious, and that you would predict them to kill me instead, finally decide to go kill mario.

If you were around for my explanation of yomi, you would understand that I was indeed the proper choice, or anyone else for that matter. This is because The strategy to kill mario is yomi 3, which is easily countered by yomi 1 (a simpleton's decision, no offense).

your fortune:"A kind word will keep someone warm for years."

 



radishhead said:
spurgeonryan said:
That is strange that you wake up, post, and just automatically say vote Mario when he was right about trucks.

@ radish

I thought it was more strange that mario game into the thread after the night phase, basically posted "right, let's kill nen then." and let it at  that - who's to say that the mafia don't have a cop-like ability? I've seen something really similar happen before, I think

First tell us why we shouldn't insta-lynch you tomorrow. I wanna hear everything you have to say, right now.

EDIT: Your fortune:"Don't bother looking for fault. The reward for finding it is low."



theprof00 said:
radishhead said:
spurgeonryan said:
That is strange that you wake up, post, and just automatically say vote Mario when he was right about trucks.

@ radish

I thought it was more strange that mario game into the thread after the night phase, basically posted "right, let's kill nen then." and let it at  that - who's to say that the mafia don't have a cop-like ability? I've seen something really similar happen before, I think

First tell us why we shouldn't insta-lynch you tomorrow. I wanna hear everything you have to say, right now.

EDIT: Your fortune:"Don't bother looking for fault. The reward for finding it is low."

Because I'm not on the mafia team- honestly, it doesn't matter if you insta-lynch me tomorrow, because you can easily lynch Linkz or someone the next day, who I believe is the final mafia. If he was a jester, then he would have got himself killed ages ago- I don't believe that this is his role. I guess Rol could be the mafia, but it seems unlikely since it's his first round, and is giving off a strong town vibe (although there hasn't been any proof to confirm this yet). Personally though, although it doesn't really matter if we mislynch tomorrow, I'd much prefer if you didn't lynch me since I know that I'm not Mafia, and it would be better spent somewhere else- I really don't know what else to say



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Brief explanation of yomi for those interested.
There are 3 levels of yomi.
yomi 2 beats yomi 1, yomi 3 beats yomi 2, yomi 1 beats yomi 3.

Yomi 1: the obvious decision
Yomi 2: knowing the obvious, counters with the opposite
Yomi 3: knowin the obvious, and knowing that a counter with the opposite is likely, follows through with the obvious.

In your case spurge:
Yomi 1 mafia: kill mario, he is the obvious threat
Yomi 1: Protect Mario, he is the cop and the obvious protection
Yomi 2 mafia: Counter by killing prof, knowing that mario is the obvious protection.
Yomi 2: Knowing that mario is the obvious threat, protect prof since it's likely that mario will be protected.
Yomi 3 mafia: Go for the original target, since the doc will likely think that mafia is smart and try to counter by killing prof.
Yomi 3: knowing that mafia have considered that the doc may expect the counter, go for the original.

As you can see, yomi 1 and yomi 3 for the doc are the same choice.


Most people think on a yomi 2 level, ie, "he knows that I know, so I will do the opposite" This would be the average intelligence level of a person. Going any higher implies that you think your opponent to be very crafty. Conversely, sticking with yomi one means that you are less intelligent than the person at yomi 2, and will be countered.
So, as a result, we are left with 2 possible types of criminal. A very daft one, or a very smart one. We are not looking for someone of average intelligence. In that respect, I would say the final mafia is either noname, linkz, or radish.



However, someone who is smart enough would surely have been able to match wits with spurge and compared their thought process. A smart mafia would likely have considered a town spurge (who is all over the place) to be yomi 1, and thus the right counter is yomi 2. Going to yomi 3 means that the scum thinks of spurge as yomi 2.

Myself, knowing that I am town, think of spurge as yomi 1. Therefore, I would propose that it is someone who is not up to my level, who is the last mafia. This would narrow it down to radish or noc. Both are good players though in some cases.

This reminds me of noc's strange obsession with items...
Radish, I'd like you to point out how you've been helping town, otherwise I'm just going to re-read you....I feel that I will likely read you as town.

Your fortune: You will discover your hidden talents.



where the fuck is noctis btw. I wrote on his wall to please join us, fyi.

Rol, I would like to see a claim tomorrow.

Your fortune: Punctuality is the politeness of kings and the duty of gentle people everywhere.


I love these fortunes, they just seem to perfectly fit everytime lol

Your fortune: A bird in the hand is worth three in the bush!!

Ok, maybe not that one though.



spurgeonryan said:
So this game is really not a challenge for you anymore theProf?

I would say this game, mafia played their hand early and made a very bad decision. Either that or stefl seriously handicapped them.

More to the point, mafia is very challenging for me. It is incredibly difficult sorting out who is and who is not mafia. That being said, I understand the game a bit more than others, so that helps...but I consider several players to be better than I.

My strength is that I act like Mello to a better player's Near. Hatmoza is similar in this respect. I'd say we are both very similar in ability, though he has better insights sometimes as I get lazy...his convictions are also a lot stronger than mine, which usually gets mafia lynched super quickly and out of the blue.

I wouldn't say I am better than others though, rather I'd say that I manipulate the game into something that I can more easily grasp, and it's useful as both mafia and town. So, I'd say that I have a trick, a cheat, that helps me figure out things faster.....though at times it's lead to incredible failures. It took me a long time tweaking my hack in order to find a gentle balance, that wouldn't result in the absolute trashing of the game, which I've done several times....

EDIT: Your fortune:"It's never crowded along the "extra mile""



I forgot Noctis was still playing - taking that into consideration, he's still my #1 lynch preference tomorrow, since I've been pretty confident that he's mafia from the beginning



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~~~~ Mario Kart 8 drove far past my expectations! Never again will I doubt the wheels of a Monster Franchise! :0 ~~~~