Yeah but i don't like the Fire Emblem comparison.  Fire Emblem is a niche franchise, and it is very traditional in that it hasn't changed much.  Super Paper Mario is quite different from the previous Paper Mario games, and has a much wider appeal.  It is likely to have much better legs then the previous games.

It may very well have a lot of legs ....but for the first week the Fire Emblem comparision is spot on .It appeared a month ago ,it did 70K in the first day ...

no fire emblem did 75k in the first week, it did 50k in the first day.

 Despite the original game being like that, I'd hardly consider fate/stay that now, as it has a big tv show and manga and that gave the charachters are whole world and story and this new ps2 game is rated all ages. To know more check it out here:

I'm willing to bet that Super Paper Mario underperforms in Japan and doesn't have the legs of long-time sellers like SMB.  Check back after the second week figures are here.

Initial sales of it in the US aren't exactly record breaking, and it stands a better chance there than it does in Japan.

The Final Fantasy remake should do fine considering that the GBA version was only released 2 years ago and sold very well back then.  There are only so many times you can sell the same game.  I picked the remake up myself as I have never played FFI before.  I think good word of mouth will be factor to give some legs to that title.  Personally, I love it.

Super Paper Mario should sell about 100K, first day sales usually account for about 50% of the weekly sales (unless there are shortages, unlikely for a nintendo game).

Mario and DK 2 debuted with 90K last week. That should have clued people that Japan is not simply buying all things Mario.

The idea that SPM was going to do 1.8 million or some such number in Japan alone was always faulty. Still, the sales for SPM look solid. Of course everything in Japan falls pretty sharply, but SPM shouldn't have much problem following only slightly behind Zelda and Wario.

If that 150K first week in NA holds up, it shouldn't take the game long to reach 1 million WW.

150 in week one ? seems to high for me.

 But we don't have to forget "golden Week"... 

 golden week + " Large shipment of Wii starting from last week." = SPM would be a "2 weeks-seller" games ? (I mean, instead of being a "one-week" seller game as Fire Emblem ?)

sorry to seem like a fool, but what is golden week in japan? a super high sales week i figure, but why?