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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD January: X360 #1 270k, 49% share, PS3 > Wii = 281k Combined

Hyruken said:


I think it is best to just ignore what they are saying to be honest because it is based on assumptions and no actual facts.

To put it into some kind of perspective they think Q1 numbers should be the same as they were 12 months ago pretty much. If the numbers are less = MS stuffed channeks and lost 2011.

But yet fail to mention what had been released a few weeks prior to that Q (Kinect). So to expect Q1 numbers to be on par with the early Kinect numbers is just stupid. There is no way on earth that MS will have the same Q results as that of 12 months ago.The numbers will be down loads.

While they are quick to point out the possibility of MS over-shipping the 360 they fail to mention that by that logic the PS3 has probably been heavily over shipped too. Especially if you take into account Sony just dropped their estimates by 10% on PS3 sales.

I think as others have obviously made clear in this thread just because these guys are more active in using this site doesn't make what they say right.

Alright, this is the last time I'm derailing this thread or even mentioning this in any other thread besides mine, cause the denial is just getting sad.  Fact 1: MS usually has ~2 million in the channel at the end of the year and usually ships ~1.5 million in Q1 of any givien year.  Fact 2: MS didn't have enough stock in the channel at the end of 2010 so they had to ship ~1-1.3 million extra units in Q1 2011 (shipments were 2.7 million for that quarter), thus inflating their shipment numbers by that same number.  Without those extra units, MS would have only shipped ~13.6-13.9 million units in 2011, making it ~200K-500K behind the PS3 in shipments for the year.  Now, you can choose to ignore those simple facts if you wish, but it really will only make you look foolish.



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ZaneWane said:
dont know why some are derailing but it well known fact xbox was best selling console last year

Why do you keep coming into these threads spreading FUD? It's already been proven that you're wrong, so stop with the lies please it's getting very sad and old.



Back to the OP.

So how much Wii and PS3 sold?



thismeintiel said:
Hyruken said:


I think it is best to just ignore what they are saying to be honest because it is based on assumptions and no actual facts.

To put it into some kind of perspective they think Q1 numbers should be the same as they were 12 months ago pretty much. If the numbers are less = MS stuffed channeks and lost 2011.

But yet fail to mention what had been released a few weeks prior to that Q (Kinect). So to expect Q1 numbers to be on par with the early Kinect numbers is just stupid. There is no way on earth that MS will have the same Q results as that of 12 months ago.The numbers will be down loads.

While they are quick to point out the possibility of MS over-shipping the 360 they fail to mention that by that logic the PS3 has probably been heavily over shipped too. Especially if you take into account Sony just dropped their estimates by 10% on PS3 sales.

I think as others have obviously made clear in this thread just because these guys are more active in using this site doesn't make what they say right.

Alright, this is the last time I'm derailing this thread or even mentioning this in any other thread besides mine, cause the denial is just getting sad.  Fact 1: MS usually has ~2 million in the channel at the end of the year and usually ships ~1.5 million in Q1 of any givien year.  Fact 2: MS didn't have enough stock in the channel at the end of 2010 so they had to ship ~1-1.3 million extra units in Q1 2011 (shipments were 2.7 million for that quarter), thus inflating their shipment numbers by that same number.  Without those extra units, MS would have only shipped ~13.6-13.9 million units in 2011, making it ~200K-500K behind the PS3 in shipments for the year.  Now, you can choose to ignore those simple facts if you wish, but it really will only make you look foolish.

Ok you say those numbers are facts so you should have no problem proving them with sources that are not from vgc?

After all if your right that info should be out there correct and would not need to use vgc numbers to back them up?

And this is the problem. No I don't think I am right Pesuz but I know from going to uni that when doing a report you can't use something like vgc as a source. Your arguments are built around these numbers, ones which can't be proved. You talk like they are the industry standard when in fact the industry doesn't even acknowledge them. But the funniest thing of all is when your called out on it you talk down to people with snide remarks whilst trying to ignore what they have said. 

So no I don't think I'm right but I know the difference between an official source and an unofficial one. The difference is you guys try and use vgc in an official way whilst ignoring the problems with that I.e the numbers being wrong. Again today we see more adjustments meaning the previous ones were thought of as wrong by ioi. Which means if you used those numbers in any work that is now also wrong.

 

Point being you can't use estimates as facts. That is what you do. If you did that in a job you wouldn't last long would you.

So yes your entitled to an opinion, entitled to use vgc to create an estimation of numbers for the industry. Can use them to gain insight into how something is doing. But all those views are personal opinion. It seems you two forget that.



pezus said:

I'm not sure if you have truly read what I posted. I'm only speaking against you and others because you regard MS shipped numbers as facts that should be used for consumer sales. Then thismeintiel gives you the full explanation WITHOUT using vgchartz and you still disregard it. We're not using VGChartz numbers specifically as facts, we're saying WHY they are as they are, explained excellently by thismeintiel above.

And do you really think ioi knows nothing, why didn't he adjust as soon as you MS fans started saying MS won? Does he know less than us? No, he doesn't. He's probably using the same reasoning as we are for these numbers. He can't just take shipped numbers and call it a day, BECAUSE companies are known for shipping more than is needed and/or shipping too little.


I read what you both posted....It seems you have not read what I posted. Again he gave his explanation in regards to those numbers but they are based on assumptions. None of us know how much is on store shelves, none of us know how many were sold to buyers and so on. He has various numbers just as we all do and he formed his own "opinion" on those numbers. As I said I respect his and anyones opinion but it is just an assumption, it isn't necessarily right or wrong. But you can't talk like it is right and shoot down other peoples "opinions" because it doesn't match your own. Understand?

All we have to go on is shipment numbers. From those numbers we can use them to create whatever scenarios we want to create. My "opinion" is as I have mentioned that we probably have them all over-tracked in various areas. The adjustments today would indicate that too. Which means ALL consoles. Again that is just my "opinion" but I can back up my "opinion" using official tracked data such as recent NPD numbers AND shipment numbers and recent changes in company forecasts. BUT again that is just my "opinion". It could be right, it could be wrong.  It is just ONE way to interprut the numbers we have. There is no way to know who won 2011 and to say one or the other did again is "opinion". But as I mentioned you talk like it is fact when it isn't. I think even you being the biggest Sony fanboy on here would admit that Sony would of come out blowing the trumpet saying they won if they had. Or at least question those claiming to have won.

And I never said ioi knows nothing. He has various people who send him data from various places. From that data he makes a guesstimation on what the numbers are. Sometimes the numbers back will be accurate and sometimes they won't. Sometimes the tracking is spot on and sometimes it isn't. Recently it hasen't been spot on, has not even been close (dec). Now I don't mean that as criticism of ioi or the hard work he does I mean it as in you should always take numbers here with a pinch of salt (english saying). Because one month you might think something looks about right only for those numbers to change later on and create a whole new picture. Adjustments will always happen.

And of course he can't just take the shipped numbers and call it a day, that would be stupid. But the point is prior to the numbers you and the Sony crew were saying "wait for shipment numbers". I am sure if I really wanted to I could go through your post history and find posts where you said that. But as soon as those numbers come out we have gone from "shipment numbers give us a better idea". To "we can't trust those numbers, MS stuffed channel, wait for next quarter data". You change the rules to suit your argument. If Sony had a higher shipped figure for 2011 you would not even question that data and you know it. You would use the shipment figures as a way to prove your point that the ps3 had SOLD more then the 360. Pretty sure most non biased people will agree with me on that.


This post has been moderated ~ Barozi



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Hyruken said:

Ok you say those numbers are facts so you should have no problem proving them with sources that are not from vgc?

NPD for US, Nintendo (GFK) for Europe and MC for Japan... all the three tracking services are in line with VGC numbers... GFK Australia showed accuracy with VGC number too.

Nos just expect the Q3 shipment from Microsoft to confirm the overshipped issue.

Thanks.



pezus said:

A lot of assumptions there that aren't even worthy of a response. It's quite clear who can't let this go, insulting me and assuming a lot of false things won't change that. I will not respond again.

lol Pezus, you really do act like a saint. You're pretty bias and it's clear you can't let go of this argument either. I don't know why (both sides) don't take it to either mine or thismeintela's thread insted of ruining nearly any sales thread it pops up in.



 

ethomaz said:

Hyruken said:

Ok you say those numbers are facts so you should have no problem proving them with sources that are not from vgc?

NPD for US, Nintendo (GFK) for Europe and MC for Japan... all the three tracking services are in line with VGC numbers... GFK Australia showed accuracy with VGC number too.

Nos just expect the Q3 shipment from Microsoft to confirm the overshipped issue.

Thanks.

ok man we´re waiting... are u ready for disapointment again ?? Better be.



ethomaz said:

Hyruken said:

Ok you say those numbers are facts so you should have no problem proving them with sources that are not from vgc?

NPD for US, Nintendo (GFK) for Europe and MC for Japan... all the three tracking services are in line with VGC numbers... GFK Australia showed accuracy with VGC number too.

Nos just expect the Q3 shipment from Microsoft to confirm the overshipped issue.

Thanks.


At least you bother to mention the sources.

But without wanting this thread to go round and round and round you said "all three tracking services are in line with VGC".

How can you say that about NPD?

For december we had 360 at 2.8m. NPD had it at 1.6m. That is a difference of 1.2m. Or 42%.

Wii at 1.7m and NPD had it at 1m. That is a difference of 700k or 41%.

PS3 at 1.25m and NPD had it at 940k. That is a difference of 310k or 25%

3DS at 2.035m  and NPD had it at 1.6m. That is a difference of around 400k etc etc

You could do the same for last months and you would see a similar picture.

SOme of them might be in line (in truth I have not checked so will take your word) but NPD isn't in line.

Which strengthens my point that if your basing your own theory of who won 2011 on vgc numbers then what is to say it isn't out by a lot? Because based on the last two NPD's they are all major over-tracked. Which makes it even harder to determine how much is on shelves in those territories. As I said before there is no real way to determine who won accuratly. And BUSINESS' use shipments as the main sales measurement.



thismeintiel said:
Hyruken said:


I think it is best to just ignore what they are saying to be honest because it is based on assumptions and no actual facts.

To put it into some kind of perspective they think Q1 numbers should be the same as they were 12 months ago pretty much. If the numbers are less = MS stuffed channeks and lost 2011.

But yet fail to mention what had been released a few weeks prior to that Q (Kinect). So to expect Q1 numbers to be on par with the early Kinect numbers is just stupid. There is no way on earth that MS will have the same Q results as that of 12 months ago.The numbers will be down loads.

While they are quick to point out the possibility of MS over-shipping the 360 they fail to mention that by that logic the PS3 has probably been heavily over shipped too. Especially if you take into account Sony just dropped their estimates by 10% on PS3 sales.

I think as others have obviously made clear in this thread just because these guys are more active in using this site doesn't make what they say right.

Alright, this is the last time I'm derailing this thread or even mentioning this in any other thread besides mine, cause the denial is just getting sad.  Fact 1: MS usually has ~2 million in the channel at the end of the year and usually ships ~1.5 million in Q1 of any givien year.  Fact 2: MS didn't have enough stock in the channel at the end of 2010 so they had to ship ~1-1.3 million extra units in Q1 2011 (shipments were 2.7 million for that quarter), thus inflating their shipment numbers by that same number.  Without those extra units, MS would have only shipped ~13.6-13.9 million units in 2011, making it ~200K-500K behind the PS3 in shipments for the year.  Now, you can choose to ignore those simple facts if you wish, but it really will only make you look foolish.

when you google "Microsoft overshipping xbox" and click on pictures, you find your signature at no. 5 spot. Tells you something, doesn't it? :D



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