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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD January: X360 #1 270k, 49% share, PS3 > Wii = 281k Combined

Shinobi-san on 11 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
Noobie said:
If the 28% drop is true, that puts the PS3 around 192k (267k on Jan/2011).
Which added to the aprox. 340k units combined (between PS3 and Wii), then that puts the Wii at around 148k (did 319k on Jan/2011).

So, the overall aprox. numbers are something like:

360: 270k (confirmed)
PS3: 192k (28% drop from same month last year)
3DS: 150k (Nintendo info saying that it's at "more than 4.25 million", last month was at "more than 4.1 million")
Wii: 148k (over 340k [PS3+Wii] - over 192k [PS3] = over 148k])

With 3DS and Wii probably alternating positions and give or take few extra thousands.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35048093&postcount=781

Extrapolation of unit sales based on that 51% number would be wrong. PS3 & Wii accounted for more than 340K combined. Unfortunately, that's as specific as I can be

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35046898&postcount=773

How trust worthy is this Petrae guy, anyway?  Just asking because I don't really frequent Gaf, plus I don't see how he's getting his numbers if MS already announced a 49% marketshare (which is where Seece got the 281K).  It seems he has access to NPD's numbers, but has that been confirmed in the past?

I agree, all this is based on one guys word. How reliable is this guy?

I also dont see whats wrong with extrapolating numbers based on market share revealed by MS.

Edit:  That being said wii dropping to 100k would be pretty unprecedented. That would represent a massive YOY % drop!



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thismeintiel on 11 February 2012
Shinobi-san said:
I dont get the quoting gaf members posts as if its solid truth? Am i missing something here

All the info, except what we got from MS and Nintendo's overall 3DS sales, has come from that member's blog.  I'm just not sure  how reputable the guy is, either.  We've always been able to partially judge Wii's and PS3's sales thanks to MS's statements about NPD, I just don't understand why that would all of a sudden change this month.



 

Shinobi-san on 11 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
Shinobi-san said:
I dont get the quoting gaf members posts as if its solid truth? Am i missing something here

All the info, except what we got from MS and Nintendo's overall 3DS sales, has come from that member's blog.  I'm just not sure  how reputable the guy is, either.  We've always been able to partially judge Wii's and PS3's sales thanks to MS's statements about NPD, I just don't understand why that would all of a sudden change this month.

Does the PS3 > 3DS info also originate from him?



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Shinobi-san on 11 February 2012

Well after reading more into that thread it seems they are trusting him simply because hes a gaf member.

screw that.



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thismeintiel on 11 February 2012
Shinobi-san said:
thismeintiel said:
Shinobi-san said:
I dont get the quoting gaf members posts as if its solid truth? Am i missing something here

All the info, except what we got from MS and Nintendo's overall 3DS sales, has come from that member's blog.  I'm just not sure  how reputable the guy is, either.  We've always been able to partially judge Wii's and PS3's sales thanks to MS's statements about NPD, I just don't understand why that would all of a sudden change this month.

Does the PS3 > 3DS info also originate from him?

Unfortunately, yes.  Lol, looks like I was a little premature when I said the VGC article should be updated.



 

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Shinobi-san on 11 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
Shinobi-san said:
thismeintiel said:
Shinobi-san said:
I dont get the quoting gaf members posts as if its solid truth? Am i missing something here

All the info, except what we got from MS and Nintendo's overall 3DS sales, has come from that member's blog.  I'm just not sure  how reputable the guy is, either.  We've always been able to partially judge Wii's and PS3's sales thanks to MS's statements about NPD, I just don't understand why that would all of a sudden change this month.

Does the PS3 > 3DS info also originate from him?

Unfortunately, yes.  Lol, looks like I was a little premature when I said the VGC article should be updated.


Oh what the hell, lets believe him



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DirtyP2002 on 11 February 2012
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong



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amaral_slb on 11 February 2012

Shinobi-san, thismeintiel

No one is acting like what that guy is saying is the complete and undeniable truth.
Fact is no numbers will come out from NPD, and Sony, Nintendo and MS didn´t provide enough numbers.

You have 2 options, you don´t care, or you read, and if there are guys (that claim seeing the numbers and are reliable by not gaining anything from posting BS) that can provide some hints, you extrapolate and reach numbers that gives you an idea of what they actually sold (or who sold more then who).

NPD reports are getting thiner and thiner by the month.



thismeintiel on 11 February 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

Don't you think that's a low number, especially considering MS usually ships ~1.5-1.7 million in Q1?  Now, if they ship less than 1.5, then you can say they "overshipped" slightly in Q4 2011.  Of course, I think the difference will be minimal.  Retailers may have misjudged demand a little in Q4, but the big difference in shipments/sales mostly comes from having to ship an extra ~1 million or so units in Q1 2011 to make up for low stock at the end of 2010.



 

Shinobi-san on 11 February 2012
amaral_slb said:
Shinobi-san, thismeintiel

No one is acting like what that guy is saying is the complete and undeniable truth.
Fact is no numbers will come out from NPD, and Sony, Nintendo and MS didn´t provide enough numbers.

You have 2 options, you don´t care, or you read, and if there are guys (that claim seeing the numbers and are reliable by not gaining anything from posting BS) that can provide some hints, you extrapolate and reach numbers that gives you an idea of what they actually sold (or who sold more then who).

NPD reports are getting thiner and thiner by the month.


Quite a few posters were which is what i took issue with...

Also i was just curious as to where the info was coming from and whether or not they had a source or was reliable.



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