I don't think the market perception of 360 and PS3 is all that similar. 360 is still seen as the FPS/online system, while PS3 is the high tech PlayStation. I do think, however, that Sony really needs to concentrate on making sure that the major exclusives stay exclusive, as it's well worth it. We've seen 360 sell much better than this at $400, and they haven't had the benefit of being Sony. PS3 still has the best shot at hitting 100 million. I wasn't particularly concentrating on Japan when I mentioned system sellers, but Sony does have not just Square but very likely Koei and Konami as well, in addition to their own strong internal brands. PS2 had 75%. Lowest I could see that dropping to is 60%. N64 and Wii launch in the US are comparable. Donkey Kong's in the same place as the other IPs Nintendo decides it doesn't have time for because it shed all its developers.

 The battle for exclusivs is not entirle between sony and microsoft. If Nintendo wins Japan they will get exclusivs, and they already have exclusivs coming. The might not be the big names but some of them can sell consols. From my head Wii exclusivs that should arrive this year: Nights, MySims, Boogie, Treasure Islands Z, RE: UC, Dragon Quest: Swords. Not much yet, but it can become more it Nintendo keeps going.

PS3 will only have a long lifespann if it have the support and sony start making some money.

And why should media do that? They never changed for the gamecube.

Just to inform you PS3 is sold with a loss today, wouldn't a price drop on about 200 USD hurt sony more than Microsofts 100 USD drop?

Yes we wont now untill Wii reach gamecube levels. Let us state that I am a optimist and don't think that a consol that is still sold out and have passed 50% of GC LTD during 6 months in japan will end up lower than the gamecube.

PS3 had a good start for the first 2 months, mayby. It seems that it is selling only during launch, japan + usa sales for PS3 is less than xbox360 sales in USA. If nothing stops Wii it will hit 3 million sold in Japan before PS3 hits 1 million. Sony is selling good for a 600 USD system which just says that you shouldn't make a 600 USD system.

Let me state like it like this, when PS3 hit 400 USD in USA in in 2008. xbox360 might have a lead that is so big that Sony can't do anything.
 

Of course they have I mean they have Madden coming out for golden week in Japan it will clearly be the system selle. PS3 wont reach 100 million plus without Japan. Even if it starts selling in USA and Europe.

Nice to hear mayby they should get some games out then, becuase if you have failed to see it yet ps3 is getting its ass kicked by the Wii. Likelt Koei and Konami is also fun, when the publish some new game info about this system seller let me know.

Let me state like this, I do think that xbox360 will do similar numbers as xbox as minimum. Wii will most probarbly sell more than gamecube, because it is as you pointed out selling as good as N64 in USA ~ ended up 20 millions. It is selling better in Japan and EU say a total 20 million there. That would mean ~60 million sold consols for the competition. That would mean that PS3 needs to sell ~150 millions. Let me know when the sell more than 10 million a year. Before that I wont take you serious.

Why does the PS3 still have the best shot of hitting 100 million first? I think most of the arguments are based largely on the previous platform's success, which is traditionally not a great indicator of future results. Usually some other company learns from its mistakes, which gives them a leg up next time around. Microsoft launched last with XBox, and had horrible 1st/3rd party titles (Azurik anyone?), luckily Halo bailed them out. And you look at MS now, and at the very least they've remedied those issues with the 360 (they still failed in Japan though.) That being said, Sony has a powerful system without the baggage of non-existent Japanese sales. So even losing some exclusives, it does have some assets to work with. OTOH, Sony is in between a rock and a hard place now with regard to price. It's taking a bath even right now at $600. The Playstation has become the cornerstone of Sony's empire, not its TV's and other electronics. People here talk about Sony like they're on the same level as Microsoft, when they're not. They're more in between Microsoft and Nintendo in terms of reliance on video game market. The decision to include Blu-Ray was great for Blu-Ray, not so great for PS3 (from a sales and business standpoint.) It not only makes the PS3 more expensive to produce, but delayed its launch as well. Is that worth including Blu-Ray? I think we won't know for a few years. When the PS3 is $400, the XBox will be $250, and the Wii will be $149. It will ALWAYS be the most expensive system, and may end up always being a step behind at each step in the mass adoption curve. Sony simply can't afford to cut the price now and take a bigger bath on hardware sales, neither can it afford to fall back in the install base and battle of perception. Now THAT'S called being in between a rock and a hard place. Nintendo played it safe by going for a single rather than swinging for the fences. But it appears that they're going to be able to safely stretch it into at least a double. They won't make any first moves to further shake up the market, but their presence reduces the overall pie a bit in the Sony vs. Microsoft battle.

Not gonna happen. The PSX and PS2 didn't start off at $600. Most of the sales for these systems came when they were reduced to $150 and had a huge "Greatest Hits" collection. By the time PS3 gets to $150, Nintendo and MS will have already made their next generation systems. MGS4 and FFXIII may be systems sellers, but have they sold $600 systems?

When they come out will the PS3 still be 600?

I dunno if this really is a valid point but doesnt the value of a dollar decrease over time? I always thought the 600 dollars today was around 400 dollars maybe 10-15 years ago... maybe if someone can explain?

In truth it does have the best shot at hitting 100million, there are 120million ps2 owners.. who will most likely upgrade to the PS3 after a price drop..

MS cannot counter a price drop by Sony as easily as you all think... they cannot continue losing more and more and more....

Nintendo on the other hand... Flawless Victory!

@S-L-I-P You can't say that the 120 million PS2 users will buy PS3. Simple because if the rules was like that Nintendo would never have lost all the usersupport they had with NES. Microsoft had a record profit even when the xbox360 division lost money, honestly if Microsoft want they can continue to lose money for the whole gen. PS3 is sold with loss for the moment. Think that sony needs to drop their price with over 200 USD to reach xbox360.

30% of Sony's products break down upon launch. PS2 userbase is only 90 million; 120 million have sold because of the re-buy thing that adds extra sales.

Admittedly this thread has been going on a couple of weeks. But still, some realism is necessary for those saying PS3 has the best chance of getting to 100 Million. I don't think the current PS3 numbers in Japan have sunk in yet. They are catastrophic. They are not PSP bad. The PSP is a success even if it is in second place. PS3 numbers are catastrophic. They are declining week by week. They are so catastrophic that they are only outselling X360 by a factor of four. They are GameCube bad. They are bad. Maybe nothing will go to 100 Million. Maybe even the PS3 will. But it won't get there without Japan and it needs a major turnaround there. Could happen. But it's not a good chance. Ok, I am a Wii fanboy. Enough of a fanboy to be pleased to have preordered three to be sure of getting one (and I sold the other two to friends at cost.) But not enough of a fanboy (or smart enough) to have bought stock

just wrote in another forum, and think, this will be also good for this topic, this more about wii vs ps3 stuff. =)


see, that some people still don`t understand.

let`s compare on food:
hamburgers are selling better, then *some dish at restaraunt*.
both taste good, but both have _different_ tastes, and you can`t say, that *dish* is not as good as hamburgers, because it`s selling less. It`s just for different people or different time.

and yeah, hamburger is cheaper, and more afordable for casual people, and if you go to some restaraunt, there is a very little chance, that you will buy hamburger there(probably they won`t even have them), instead of *some dish*.

so.. "Wii outsells PS3 7-to-1 at Japan retail" Sounds the same like "hamburgers outsell 7-to-1 *some dish from restaraunt*". =))


AND PEOPLE:
about doom stuff, you can speak, when ps3 will have games, and still won`t be selling good, that means only after MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, G3, KZ2 releases. =)