IMO: U3 will surprise people most

Gears 3 and Battlefield 3 second.

Resistance 3 3rd, although I hope Insomniac took the time to get it right this time around and beats out all games. Excluding the fantastic 8-player coop from R2 is a pretty big strike against them already though darn it. Can't believe they decided not to do it - that was a huge (and one of the few) positives that users and reviewers raved about. I'm bitter if you can't tell ha.

MW 3 is meh. I thought MW 1 was decent, but in large part due to the epic ending. MW2 imo sucked royally.

(ME3 is pushed to 2012, but if it wasn't I think it would be up there with U3. It's not my type of game, but many people consider ME2 one of their favorite games and I don't expect ME3 to disappoint.)

We also had Killzone 3 and Marvel vs. Capcom 3 so far this year.

That is a killer list you posted there, but I don't have much experience with a few of those resistance such as Gears and Resistance.  I am actually kind of looking forward to Saints Row 3.  I've never played Saints Row, but the Game Informer article made it sound like the game is pretty hilarious. 

Mass Effect 3, BF3, MW3, and UC3 are all going to be great games.  I actually have no idea what games I am going to buy this fall.  There are so many games coming out I might not buy any at all and just wait till they hit the bargain bin.