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Forums - General - Prove that possessing extreme wealth or being famous isn't mostly luck?

superchunk said:

I think you have a poor question as in reality its a combination of all of this.

You'll have those purely lucky on the basis of being born into the right family. Those are people like royalty and such.

Then you have those that had that lucky family and did enough work to keep it going and even grow the wealth. These people have some luck as well as some basic work. Someone like Paris Hilton fits this category. She has wealth and was able to get into the right crowds with her family, but she has done enough basic work to continue that trend. (tv acting and marketing of herself)

Then you have those that really demonstrated concentrated effort to get to where they are. I think your examples as well as those shown by others clearly fit this. M.Jordan (as well as most other sport greats), M.Jackson (as well as other great artists), B.Gates (as well as many other great business people).

These people all have some basic raw talent, but also worked very hard to achieve greatness. It wasn't handed to them. M.Jordan would not have been able to get 6 trophies in NBA, countless other awards, NCAA trophies and awards, known as a fiere competitor, by far the most business deals of any sports person (only one to still have full clothing after retirement), etc, etc... without a lot of very hard work.

M.Ohr is a bad example as there are plenty of top athletes from the ghetto that are worth a lot.

I could continue with many other examples, but to generalize it as you did is really not fair to the great number of those who have worked their assess off to get where they are.

Thing is that there are plenty who also work their asses off and don't end up anywhere in life.  They got dealt a series of bad breaks, and guessed wrong in light of incomplete information.  The deciding factor for them going on to be hugely successful (rich or famous) was a series of breaks that they had nothing to do with.   And then, one asks where did the person get the make up to actually work their asses off?  Where in their make up did this come from?  Exactly how much did they bring into themselves, or the environment?

And Michael Jordan as a basketball executive has hardly been a success.  The NBA team he owns now is hardly a success.  They stand a good chance of not even making the playoffs.  Factor in also things like the NBA lottery which can make or break a club to.  Then teams will gamble on high risk, high reward players.  And a number of top players, even top 50 all time, didn't even win a championship.  You get a series of bad breaks, you don't win.  It happens.  Also, Michael Jordan as a baseball player also didn't work out.  Anyone think Michael Jordan as a baseball player didn't work out because he didn't try hard enough, or wasn't motivated enough?



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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_(book)

Gladwell repeatedly mentions the "10,000-Hour Rule", claiming that the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours.

While there are lots of factors outside of a person's control which will help/hinder their chances of success, the most important factor is the effort they put into it.

Essentially, being the most naturally talented basketball player or software developer is meaningless unless you put the time in to develop your skill to achieve your potential; and anyone who puts that kind of effort into developing their natural talents will also end up achieving significant success.

 

Or to put it another way ...

When I was in high-school one of my classmates played football with me. Even though he wasn't in (particularly) good shape and he smoked he had the ability to run 40 meters in under 4 seconds. His natural athleticism actually attracted the attention of several scouts from large US colleges which is unheard of in Canada. This all resulted in him being offered a couple of scholarships and all he had to do was write the SATs and graduate at the end of the year. While it is difficult to understand the logic behind it, he skipped several classes a day from the time the football season ended in grade 12 and eventually was expelled from school; and never graduated.

All the natural talent in the world doesn't matter if you screw up your opportunities; and (realistically) far more people screw up the opportunities they had then failed after putting in the effort needed to achieve their potential.



richardhutnik said:
MrBubbles said:

im sorry that you are upset michael jordan has a bigger penis than you, rich.  

why sit about pissing and moaning about genetics or parental wealth?   plenty of people have succeeded who dont have either of these.  the key is motivation. 

you have no desire to work towards goals(or dont have any) like these people have.  what proof do i have of this, you say.  the fact that you are once again into self loathing mode on this site. 

these individuals have not just sat around forums complaining to others about how unfair life is to them, i can assure you.

So, when will you become a billionaire, or is it that you just aren't motivated to do so?  If it is a matter of motivation to become a billionaire, are you one yet? 


what makes you think you have any knowledge of my finances?



"I like my steaks how i like my women.  Bloody and all over my face"

"Its like sex, but with a winner!"

MrBubbles Review Threads: Bill Gates, Jak II, Kingdom Hearts II, The Strangers, Sly 2, Crackdown, Zohan, Quarantine, Klungo Sssavesss Teh World, MS@E3'08, WATCHMEN(movie), Shadow of the Colossus, The Saboteur

Warren Buffett, his dealing is either absurdly lucky or he is actually properly a financial genius.



richardhutnik said:

* Michael Jordan.  Exactly WHAT did have to do with his possession of pure athleticism that got him where he was?  Same goes for a number of these top athletes.  If they didn't get lucky in the gene pool, would they of ever got where they were?

Based on this, anyone want to argue that it isn't mostly luck that leads to fortune or extreme wealth?


You are just defining luck in such a way that your point is a tautology.

 

If things such as athletic ability are given to us by luck of genetics., then so are things such as intelligence, emotional aptitude, charisma and common sense. That way, if someone succeeds in creating an invention due to their intelligence, convincing someone to give them the start up capital using their charisma and then successfully monetising the invention using his common sense and emotional aptitude, then by your definition he has succeeded 100% by luck. This of course leads to the conclusion that all success is due to luck.



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Skill and Luck are both required.



Yes luck is a factor considering for every person that succeeds their are10-100.000 that fails...also plenty of the rich are lucky the rest of the population is rather dumb/stupid..

How many do not wake up on a monday complaining about another boring work week while doing nothing about it...



 

Mostly luck?  No.  Though luck is needed.

I suggest reading

 

Basically the formula is "talent, 10,000 hours of work a little luck to allow you to work for about 10,000 hours on something An idea that's... well  good."

As for people like Michael Jordan.  There were MANY more people with better genes then Michael Jordan.  There are TONS of atheletic freaks who can't make it to the pros.

Michael Jordan became the "Greatest of all Time" because Michael Jordan is an anti-social dick who feels the need to destroy everybody at everything.

If he loses a game of Stratego to his kid he's pissed off for weeks playing Stratego.

When he loses at poker, he forces his friends to keep playing with him until he wins.  Michael Jordan is not... lucky.

Just look at his Hall of Fame speech, where he seemed offended that he was inducted more then anything because he believes he still could kick everyones ass.  Rich or not, I kinda pity him.

 

Lots of atheletes are like that, super competeitive combined with a complete loss of childhood... and if your in the NFL shortening of your life by 10 years.

Most proffesional atheletes I do not envy.



I would say the number and type of social connections is probably around the most significant factor in most forms of monetary success more so than having significantly more talent than average.

 

 



Tease.

KylieDog said:

When I win the lottery, it'll be because my skill in picking numbers.  Not luck.

The lottery actually demonstrates how luck has little to do with long term stable wealth being that most lottery winners (70%) declare bankruptcy within a few years of winning the lottery. At the same time, most professional athletes (60% to 80%) also go broke after they retire. The reason for this is that most people have poor spending habits and poor investing knowledge and they soon lose the money they earned/won.