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Forums - Gaming - Which of the three will be first out of the gate next gen?

Avinash_Tyagi on 22 December 2007
Gamerace said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Gamerace said:
I think they'll all go closer to 10 years as MS & Sony will need a lot of time to recover all the $$$$ they've lost out the gate this generation.
I do not think Nintendo will come out with a HD-Wii in 2-3 years either. HD-TV owners are buying the Wii anyway, so why bother?

Plus all 3 have gone on record saying they don't want to start a new generation in 4-5 years. 3rd parties would rather no one did either as transistion periods hurt everyone.

That said, eventually their will be one. Could go in any direction, including being started by a new competitor to the field. Nintendo would be best positioned to introduce one earliest.

 I don't believe that 10 year garbage from Sony or MS, both of them aren't going to stick with consoles that are going to top out around 30 million in WW sales one will launch in 5 years at most


If they ditch this generation early then either MS or Sony will end up in the red for an entire generation like the xbox was.  MS could afford that once, but not twice (shareholders will have a fit) and I doubt Sony could stomach that kind of loss even once.  As long as everyone has nothing to gain by an early start, they'll hold off and actually let profits happen.


 you ignore sunk costs when making a decision, the money lost i nthe two systems are sunk



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Quartz on 22 December 2007

Besides Sony will want to keep the PS3 on the market until at least Blue Ray is the main media. Wether that will happen is becoming more apparent.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 December 2007
Quartz said:
Besides Sony will want to keep the PS3 on the market until at least Blue Ray is the main media. Wether that will happen is becoming more apparent.

 it won't, by the time HD becomes important enough to most people, Direct download will be the main media source, why spend hundreds of thousands on discs when you can just distribute over the net



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Gamerace on 22 December 2007
kber81 said:
Microsoft and Sony will try to stay as long as possible because of big investments. Nintendo won't be able to compete with HD systems. Definitely Wii will be out first.

And Nintendo is competing with and beating HD systems now?



 

Bodhesatva on 22 December 2007

The answer is: whoever is making the least / losing the most money in the third trimester of this generation.

Unless something changes dramatically, it will be Sony or Microsoft.



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Quartz on 22 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Quartz said:
Besides Sony will want to keep the PS3 on the market until at least Blue Ray is the main media. Wether that will happen is becoming more apparent.

it won't, by the time HD becomes important enough to most people, Direct download will be the main media source, why spend hundreds of thousands on discs when you can just distribute over the net


Maybe, but you obviously don't live in the UK where most downloading is capped by ISP's...

I can't see BT (British Telecom) updating all the lines in the UK. Just 3 days ago I lost my net (1mb line) because there are too many people on broadband in my area and the service could not handle it.



Good to see this site is still going 

Quartz on 22 December 2007

Anyway, it was in the GT5P thread that it was mentioned that Japan is not a big downloader either.



Good to see this site is still going 

Game_boy on 22 December 2007
Quartz said:
...

Maybe, but you obviously don't live in the UK where most downloading is capped by ISP's...

I can't see BT (British Telecom) updating all the lines in the UK. Just 3 days ago I lost my net (1mb line) because there are too many people on broadband in my area and the service could not handle it.


I have an "Up to 8MB" connection with BT for over £20 ($40) per month , and even BitTorrent with thousands of seeds (yes, legal) or major international companies' servers get up to, uh, 256KB/s on a good day.

 



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Gamerace on 22 December 2007
Quartz said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Quartz said:
Besides Sony will want to keep the PS3 on the market until at least Blue Ray is the main media. Wether that will happen is becoming more apparent.

it won't, by the time HD becomes important enough to most people, Direct download will be the main media source, why spend hundreds of thousands on discs when you can just distribute over the net


Maybe, but you obviously don't live in the UK where most downloading is capped by ISP's...

I can't see BT (British Telecom) updating all the lines in the UK. Just 3 days ago I lost my net (1mb line) because there are too many people on broadband in my area and the service could not handle it.


I hear Australia in the same boat with the internet infastructure behind demand as is.  But not even the US services could handle the traffic if HD movie downloads went mass market.  Nor would ISP allow such volume.

If bandwith increases dramatically or compression, then maybe, otherwise HD movie mainstream downloading is still a long ways off.   Although a small % of the market may do this.



 

Avinash_Tyagi on 22 December 2007
Quartz said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Quartz said:
Besides Sony will want to keep the PS3 on the market until at least Blue Ray is the main media. Wether that will happen is becoming more apparent.

it won't, by the time HD becomes important enough to most people, Direct download will be the main media source, why spend hundreds of thousands on discs when you can just distribute over the net


Maybe, but you obviously don't live in the UK where most downloading is capped by ISP's...

I can't see BT (British Telecom) updating all the lines in the UK. Just 3 days ago I lost my net (1mb line) because there are too many people on broadband in my area and the service could not handle it.


Oh it won't happen today, but it will hapeen, and HD isn't anywhere near mass market, most people buy HDTVs only because flatscreens look good mounted on the wall, they have no Idea what  HD signal is and most don't have HD service



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)