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Forums - General - Comparing US State GDPs with countries.

SamuelRSmith said:
Badassbab said:

Also we have seen it before when supposedly another country would overtake the US economy. Japan for one. Germany perhaps.  Heck even the USSR at one time. Look how they all they turned at.


Haha, yes, the world of the 80s and early 90s was one of the "rise of Japan". Of course, the whole thing was flawed because of severe demographic issues, as well as the fact that Japan is far smaller in terms of land/resources and population to the USA - something where China clearly has the upper-hand.

However, China's growth is based on some severely flawed economic principles, and the Government are actually creating a weak demographic structure (1 child policy = rising population age).

What you've said is right, though, it's very, very hard to predict what will happen... even if it looks blatantly obvious (ie. rise of China).

Yes and no... It is an popular debate between analysts who compares this extreme policity between India and China...  The problem with India is that parents can't afford to let their children even go to school..it is still popular to have 4-5 children and most of the time only the eldest can go to school/college.. the younger ones have to help the parents and may occasionaly go to school.. and this is leading that the population living in 'poor' conditions is growing faster than the middle class...dangerous for the future considering inequality leads to higher crime raters, anger, etc..

In China it is the other way, the middle Class is growing fast while the people living in the 'poor' class is decreasing.. and the child policy is not that strict...It only counts for the Han Chinese..(most of the) minorties may have so many children as they want...  And you can have more than one child only you get fined for it...and the fine helps for a lot of å…ƒ (yuan).. 

And their are debates going on that the 1 child policy will end in 2015-2020 or atleast changed..



 

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FaRmLaNd said:
Lostplanet22 said:
FaRmLaNd said:

Very interesting. I think it just goes to show just how big the American economy is. With all the doom and gloom and the rise of China people often forget that the US economy is still by far the largest.

But the doom and gloom had nothing to do with being the largest economy...the doom was about the hit the economy got and how this would make the living standards of the average citizen worse....and that happened.. and the doom still exist;..  because nobody knows the future...

The economy may grow yearly 2-3% but will this also mean tha the living standard of the average citizen will increase? Joe does not care that the Economy is growing what Joe care about is that in the next five years he still has to stand or not in line at Old Sonoma Road for some food stamps because his full time job does not earn enough;.

 

If the economy will grow more jobs will eventually be created and "Joe" is more likely to get a job. Having economic growth doesn't neccesarily flow on to workers and economic disparity is of course a problem, but its certainly better to have a growing economy then one thats stagnant or shrinking.

Oh but 'Joe' already has an job in my example... Unemployed people in line for food stamps;..well that would we considering normal don't we?   The problem is that a bunch of could choose between getting fired or work for less like Joe...who has a full time job but still has to stand in line for food stamps..; but yes ofcourse it is obvious that an growing economy is better..

Only one thing to add is that China is also now very dependent of the USA.. If the $ collapse this will cost a lot of money for the Chinese government who owns a lot of USA's debt...



 

Kasz216 said:
Killiana1a said:
Kasz216 said:
Killiana1a said:
Kasz216 said:
Killiana1a said:

I am a resident of California, the world's 8th largest economy.Formerly a resident of Oregon and their fine higher education system, but California born and raised.

Source: http://econpost.com/californiaeconomy/california-economy-ranking-among-world-economies

I am not going to address this nonsense of California going the way of Greece. We have enough right leaning California haters writing for the Wall Street Journal, National Review, and the Weekly Standard. They gladly prop up welfare states like Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi because they are solid Republican states, but forget that Democratic states such as California and New York are subsidizing those God fearing, welfare Republican states via Federal tax dollars.

Source: http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/22685.html

Source: http://scatter.wordpress.com/2009/02/16/red-state-blue-state-welfare-state-subsidizing-state/

Regarding state bankruptcy, it is a political canard aimed to defund and disempower the 1st Amendment rights of citizens in each state to "peaceably assemble" in unions. Republicans and tea baggers want this state bankruptcy legislation to pass so that states would have to dissolve public employee unions in order to cut budgets, cut consitutionally (state) protected public employee pensions, and allow Republican interest groups to fill the power vacuum leftover from the dissolved. overwhelmingly Democratic public employee unions.

The problem is, Obama has the "shut the eff up" card AKA the presidential veto. In order to override a presidential veto, there needs to be a two-thirds vote of both chambers of the US Congress meaning Republicans need 292 House members (They currently have 242 vs. 193 Dem) and 67 of the 100 US Senators to vote yes in overturning a presidential veto.

In the end, this is shameless political theatre just like the repeal of Obama's healthcare bill. They know Obama has the "shut the eff up" card, they don't have any meaningful influence with enough Democrats to overturn a veto, and they hope they can drag it out on Fox News well until the 2012 election. Well baby, it ain't going to happen, plenty of news between now and then.

Source: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/constitution/pdf/con001.pdf

None of what you've said actually in anwyay defended your thesis that California won't go bankrupt.... and your "Bankruptcy is to stop the first ammendment" arguement just sounds insanely paranoid.

If you'll notice, your state is inacting very large deficit reducing factors... that don't even scrape the surface...

and it's being done by Democrats.

Democrats are stopping all funding to the public libraries and your really blind enough to say your state doesn't have a problem?

I am fine with California declaring state bankruptcy so long as in doing so it does not violate 1st Amendment rights to "peaceably assemble" in unions and it does not violate California State Consitution protections for public employee pensions.

You might be thinking, does this guy who works in mental health work in public mental health? No, the organization for which I work for is a 1000 employee private sector, for profit mental health company.

As for Democrats cutting funding, it is regrettable but understandable. Governor Brown's budget called for across the board budget cuts and the elimination of state redevelopment agencies.

Source: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/01/09/3310523/anatomy-of-browns-budget-plan.html

I am more in favor of cutting the budgets of California Highway Patrol and state prisons.

California state prison guards have an average salary of $57,000 (not to mention the cadillac benefits).

Source: http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060228/news_1n28guards.html

California Highway Patrol starting salary is $51,288/year (not including cadillac benefits).

http://www.chp.ca.gov/recruiting/osalary.html

I could understand these starting salaries if state prison guards and CHP required a 4 year degree, but they don't. Hell, if you are a friend or a friend of a friend, you don't even need an Associate's to get a job as a state prison guard or with CHP.

If we are talking about cutting state government spending, then everything needs to be on the table. Including "public safety" whom Republicans and conservatives hail as essential and should never be cut. Last time I checked, state prison guards, police, and sheriff were not private sector, for-profit organizations bringing in their own revenue via the sale of goods and/or services.

If the majority of your salary is paid for by tax dollars and/or government grants, then you are just as much a bureaucrat as the pencil pushers in the state capital regardless whether your bureaucratic duties require a gun and a badge.


I don't get where you think bankruptcy would violate freedom to assemble... that's just goofy.

As for the State Pensions... they likely WILL end up having to or be cut.  They're such a huge liability that you'll either have to get rid of them or morgage your future to pay for everyones retirement.  Which is basically already what's happening.  Getting rid of Library funding is just a travesty.  It's where people can learn for free and also where the poor go to get computer access for employment.  Relying on just private donations is a very risky gamble.

My point is though, even Democrats are inacting plans that force big cuts into historically democratic big government social welfare plans.  It'd be like if you saw a Republican raise taxes.  You'd know shit was really serious with the debt.

As for Prisons.  You could always privatise them.  Of course then you could end up with some pretty messed up situations since the state will only care about the lowest bid.

As for 60K being high for prison guards though... have you ever seen what prison guards do/go through?  It's pretty brutal.  I can scarecely think of 10 jobs i'd less like to do.

If anything you'd be better off passing a legalization of Marijuana and then just laying off guards.


The problem with guards getting overtime is the alternative is to hire more workers, who you have to pay pensions to.

I don't like public employee pensions anymore than you do. As different as we are politically, both of us know public employee pensions and entitlements (Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid) will be the most vociferous and divisive public policy battle of the next couple decades.

Those who are retired or near retirement are convenient socialists regardless of their political ideology. Most individuals live retired longer than they worked and put into Social Security, Medicare and Social Security benefits paid out now are paid by those of us working, and Medicaid has always been the red-headed stepchild of the three. I tend to go easier on Medicaid as I have more sympathy for the indigent and disabled than I do a bunch of entitled seniors.

If any is going to go the way of the dodo, I would comfortably place my bet on Medicare going belly up first. Social Security is an easy fix. The highest rate one puts in is set at a salary of $106,000 meaning those earning $107,000/year, $200,000/year on up to multi billion dollar status are paying the same rate into Social Security as someone pulling down $106,000/year. They need to up this to include progressive tax rates on up past $100 million for your Will Smiths and Bill Gates of the world. Add in a noblesse oblige tax for the billionaires and it is solvent for hundreds of years to come.

Medicaid since it's conception has always had to make do with little. In most states, the State pays 50% and the Feds match the other 50%. Medicaid because of the intent behind it, is the noblest of laws providing basic healthcare to our society's most vulnerable citizens. Any politician who advocates axing Medicaid better be from Texas or some other heartless state with a whiff of Social Darwinism in the state culture.

However, I do know that public employee pensions are protected by the California State Constitution and any move to try and divert funds from them to fill budget holes will result in a series of court cases ultimately in the lap of the US Supreme Court. California ain't unique in this case.

Under the California Constitution, to raise taxes, 2/3s of the California Assembly and Senate need to vote in favor. From what I have been reading out of Sacramento, Republicans are deadset against this. If Brown's tax raising proposals don't make it to the ballot, then K-12 and Higher Education funding will get cut drastically.

Politics as usual.


Er, except they already have "diverted funds" away from pensions.

It's called simply not funding your pension system then watching it crash.

There is 1.5 Billion dollars in unfunded California pensions, with 1.5 billion (plus some) being spent elsewhere....

The funds were never appropriated in the first place. The State paid as it went, the unions fought for higher pensions during the recessions (1991 and 2003), the State agreed to them without setting aside funds for them, and we are at the pickle with public employee pensions right now.

As for it being spent elsewhere, Brown seemed to single out redevelopment agencies. I think the problem is far more pervasive with too much environmental regulation (example the California Air Quality Board) and too many state agencies that are just duplicates of Federal agencies.



Killiana1a said:
Kasz216 said:
Killiana1a said:
Kasz216 said:
Killiana1a said:
Kasz216 said:
Killiana1a said:

I am a resident of California, the world's 8th largest economy.Formerly a resident of Oregon and their fine higher education system, but California born and raised.

Source: http://econpost.com/californiaeconomy/california-economy-ranking-among-world-economies

I am not going to address this nonsense of California going the way of Greece. We have enough right leaning California haters writing for the Wall Street Journal, National Review, and the Weekly Standard. They gladly prop up welfare states like Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi because they are solid Republican states, but forget that Democratic states such as California and New York are subsidizing those God fearing, welfare Republican states via Federal tax dollars.

Source: http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/22685.html

Source: http://scatter.wordpress.com/2009/02/16/red-state-blue-state-welfare-state-subsidizing-state/

Regarding state bankruptcy, it is a political canard aimed to defund and disempower the 1st Amendment rights of citizens in each state to "peaceably assemble" in unions. Republicans and tea baggers want this state bankruptcy legislation to pass so that states would have to dissolve public employee unions in order to cut budgets, cut consitutionally (state) protected public employee pensions, and allow Republican interest groups to fill the power vacuum leftover from the dissolved. overwhelmingly Democratic public employee unions.

The problem is, Obama has the "shut the eff up" card AKA the presidential veto. In order to override a presidential veto, there needs to be a two-thirds vote of both chambers of the US Congress meaning Republicans need 292 House members (They currently have 242 vs. 193 Dem) and 67 of the 100 US Senators to vote yes in overturning a presidential veto.

In the end, this is shameless political theatre just like the repeal of Obama's healthcare bill. They know Obama has the "shut the eff up" card, they don't have any meaningful influence with enough Democrats to overturn a veto, and they hope they can drag it out on Fox News well until the 2012 election. Well baby, it ain't going to happen, plenty of news between now and then.

Source: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/constitution/pdf/con001.pdf

None of what you've said actually in anwyay defended your thesis that California won't go bankrupt.... and your "Bankruptcy is to stop the first ammendment" arguement just sounds insanely paranoid.

If you'll notice, your state is inacting very large deficit reducing factors... that don't even scrape the surface...

and it's being done by Democrats.

Democrats are stopping all funding to the public libraries and your really blind enough to say your state doesn't have a problem?

I am fine with California declaring state bankruptcy so long as in doing so it does not violate 1st Amendment rights to "peaceably assemble" in unions and it does not violate California State Consitution protections for public employee pensions.

You might be thinking, does this guy who works in mental health work in public mental health? No, the organization for which I work for is a 1000 employee private sector, for profit mental health company.

As for Democrats cutting funding, it is regrettable but understandable. Governor Brown's budget called for across the board budget cuts and the elimination of state redevelopment agencies.

Source: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/01/09/3310523/anatomy-of-browns-budget-plan.html

I am more in favor of cutting the budgets of California Highway Patrol and state prisons.

California state prison guards have an average salary of $57,000 (not to mention the cadillac benefits).

Source: http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060228/news_1n28guards.html

California Highway Patrol starting salary is $51,288/year (not including cadillac benefits).

http://www.chp.ca.gov/recruiting/osalary.html

I could understand these starting salaries if state prison guards and CHP required a 4 year degree, but they don't. Hell, if you are a friend or a friend of a friend, you don't even need an Associate's to get a job as a state prison guard or with CHP.

If we are talking about cutting state government spending, then everything needs to be on the table. Including "public safety" whom Republicans and conservatives hail as essential and should never be cut. Last time I checked, state prison guards, police, and sheriff were not private sector, for-profit organizations bringing in their own revenue via the sale of goods and/or services.

If the majority of your salary is paid for by tax dollars and/or government grants, then you are just as much a bureaucrat as the pencil pushers in the state capital regardless whether your bureaucratic duties require a gun and a badge.


I don't get where you think bankruptcy would violate freedom to assemble... that's just goofy.

As for the State Pensions... they likely WILL end up having to or be cut.  They're such a huge liability that you'll either have to get rid of them or morgage your future to pay for everyones retirement.  Which is basically already what's happening.  Getting rid of Library funding is just a travesty.  It's where people can learn for free and also where the poor go to get computer access for employment.  Relying on just private donations is a very risky gamble.

My point is though, even Democrats are inacting plans that force big cuts into historically democratic big government social welfare plans.  It'd be like if you saw a Republican raise taxes.  You'd know shit was really serious with the debt.

As for Prisons.  You could always privatise them.  Of course then you could end up with some pretty messed up situations since the state will only care about the lowest bid.

As for 60K being high for prison guards though... have you ever seen what prison guards do/go through?  It's pretty brutal.  I can scarecely think of 10 jobs i'd less like to do.

If anything you'd be better off passing a legalization of Marijuana and then just laying off guards.


The problem with guards getting overtime is the alternative is to hire more workers, who you have to pay pensions to.

I don't like public employee pensions anymore than you do. As different as we are politically, both of us know public employee pensions and entitlements (Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid) will be the most vociferous and divisive public policy battle of the next couple decades.

Those who are retired or near retirement are convenient socialists regardless of their political ideology. Most individuals live retired longer than they worked and put into Social Security, Medicare and Social Security benefits paid out now are paid by those of us working, and Medicaid has always been the red-headed stepchild of the three. I tend to go easier on Medicaid as I have more sympathy for the indigent and disabled than I do a bunch of entitled seniors.

If any is going to go the way of the dodo, I would comfortably place my bet on Medicare going belly up first. Social Security is an easy fix. The highest rate one puts in is set at a salary of $106,000 meaning those earning $107,000/year, $200,000/year on up to multi billion dollar status are paying the same rate into Social Security as someone pulling down $106,000/year. They need to up this to include progressive tax rates on up past $100 million for your Will Smiths and Bill Gates of the world. Add in a noblesse oblige tax for the billionaires and it is solvent for hundreds of years to come.

Medicaid since it's conception has always had to make do with little. In most states, the State pays 50% and the Feds match the other 50%. Medicaid because of the intent behind it, is the noblest of laws providing basic healthcare to our society's most vulnerable citizens. Any politician who advocates axing Medicaid better be from Texas or some other heartless state with a whiff of Social Darwinism in the state culture.

However, I do know that public employee pensions are protected by the California State Constitution and any move to try and divert funds from them to fill budget holes will result in a series of court cases ultimately in the lap of the US Supreme Court. California ain't unique in this case.

Under the California Constitution, to raise taxes, 2/3s of the California Assembly and Senate need to vote in favor. From what I have been reading out of Sacramento, Republicans are deadset against this. If Brown's tax raising proposals don't make it to the ballot, then K-12 and Higher Education funding will get cut drastically.

Politics as usual.


Er, except they already have "diverted funds" away from pensions.

It's called simply not funding your pension system then watching it crash.

There is 1.5 Billion dollars in unfunded California pensions, with 1.5 billion (plus some) being spent elsewhere....

The funds were never appropriated in the first place. The State paid as it went, the unions fought for higher pensions during the recessions (1991 and 2003), the State agreed to them without setting aside funds for them, and we are at the pickle with public employee pensions right now.

As for it being spent elsewhere, Brown seemed to single out redevelopment agencies. I think the problem is far more pervasive with too much environmental regulation (example the California Air Quality Board) and too many state agencies that are just duplicates of Federal agencies.


They AREN'T paying as they went though.  They aren't paying at all that's the issue.



Kasz216 said


They AREN'T paying as they went though.  They aren't paying at all that's the issue.

Yes, you are correct. Like increased pay, benefits and retirement for airlines employees, public employee pensions are unfunded promises.

Now, I am not going to quibble or say any public employee making less than $100,000 is just a parasitic bureaucratic leech as some would. When the promises are made to the little man who took the City, State, or County position because they knew it would offer a good retirement, then I find it really hard to blame them for this crisis.

Who I blame is public sector management who clear $100,000 easily, get promoted to the max a year or two before they retire, retire, then come out of retirement working for another State agency. This is the double-dipping which is killing the system.

Here is what I believe should be done:

1. Any public sector worker or any public sector manager making $100k or more per year is, by law, prohibited from a public pension. Instead, the State assists them in funding a private 401k for retirement.

2. Public sector workers making under $100k/year are the only ones eligible, by law, for the public employee pension.

As for setting aside the money in a lockbox...Well look how that has turned out for Social Security. Social Security is the first place the Feds dip into come wartime.



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Killiana1a said:
Kasz216 said


They AREN'T paying as they went though.  They aren't paying at all that's the issue.

Yes, you are correct. Like increased pay, benefits and retirement for airlines employees, public employee pensions are unfunded promises.

Now, I am not going to quibble or say any public employee making less than $100,000 is just a parasitic bureaucratic leech as some would. When the promises are made to the little man who took the City, State, or County position because they knew it would offer a good retirement, then I find it really hard to blame them for this crisis.

Who I blame is public sector management who clear $100,000 easily, get promoted to the max a year or two before they retire, retire, then come out of retirement working for another State agency. This is the double-dipping which is killing the system.

Here is what I believe should be done:

1. Any public sector worker or any public sector manager making $100k or more per year is, by law, prohibited from a public pension. Instead, the State assists them in funding a private 401k for retirement.

2. Public sector workers making under $100k/year are the only ones eligible, by law, for the public employee pension.

As for setting aside the money in a lockbox...Well look how that has turned out for Social Security. Social Security is the first place the Feds dip into come wartime.

Social Security ISN'T put in a lock box.  I mean, maybe you forget the term Lockbox came from... but that was Al Gores plan for reforming social security.

He WANTED to put the money in a Lock Box.

What happens with social security now, is that as soon as the government gets everybodys money what they do is they put it all in US goverment bonds.

In otherwords, if my girlfriend gave me 100 dollars to save for her, it would be like me buying a $110 IOU from myself, then spending that $100 bucks to buy videogames.


You want to see a GOOD government run pension plan?   Look at the Netherlands.  As soon as they get their money for pensions they INVEST it, in stocks.  Not goverment IOU's from itself.

In the economic downturn they had something like a 14% growth rate!  Because as a huge government planning for continious future they can afford to leave money in constantly until it profits, they bought big in the finiancial downturn.

It's a pension plan that does exactly what private pension plans do, and what private investors do to prepare for retirement, but more effective due to governments being able to invest like the ultra rich.