ok, so this thread in response to this

Basically, the argument is this.  Chibi started telling Immortal he was doing something stupid by predicting lifetime sales of the psp and ps3.  The thing that Chibi had a problem with is that he was predicting ( or at least used the word predict) because there were too many variables in game sales to come up with an accurate lifetime prediction.  Chibi seems to think you need to know every variable and must be completely informed of every detail and facet of a thing before you can make a prediction

Now, my problem with this is that predictions are nothing but guesses.  If you look at the definition of a prediction you will see things like

I pick Chibi since he didn't feel the need to make a thread about it 

This is a videogame-sales website. Attempting to predict the sales of a game/system is the the core of this site.

true, predictions are lousy without that much information, but does that mean you can't make a prediction because you don't know all the variables?  A prediction is just a guess, the more educated the guess, the better it is, but it doesn't mean you can't make a guess because you don't know enough.

thanks for the support Dsister

By the way, where the crap have you been?  I never see you post anymore...

Part of predicting is predicting events 

My problem with predictions on this site is that most people make very uniformed predications.  Instead of using facts as a guideline, they use fanboy drivel.  I enjoy reading peoples predictions when they back them up whether they turn out true or false.  They used the best information they had at the time to make a guess, which is great. 

Recently, some people have predicted that Kinect will fall off the face of the earth after this holiday season.   There is no good reasoning to come up with this prediction other than they want it to fail.  The only argument that could be used is that there is little software support, but this is flawed because we do not know what MS has planned for next year.  These people are assuming that MS will stop supporting Kinect which is simply ridiculous. 

Bottom line:  Informed predictions are great, fanboy drivel sucks.

Only in hindsight will one know all the variables. Even then, the process of knowing every single variable would take some time. Thus forth, every prediction is going to have variables not factored in until hindsight analysis including tangential variables such as the economics of each country in the market, changing demographics, weather (if a blizzard or freak of nature hits during a launch day), and on.

You are right.

Always glad to help :-p

Well, I've been banned for the last month so that might be one reason why 

Pahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ah thanx this made my day ^^