@steverhcp02:

DO YOU UNDERTSAND, THAT IT WORKED FOR PSONE AND PS2???
Both consoles were INCREASING 2nd-3rd years sales almost TWICE.
Why it won`t work for PS3 then?

x360 sales HAVEN`T increased.

CrazzyMan said: @steverhcp02: DO YOU UNDERTSAND, THAT IT WORKED FOR PSONE AND PS2??? Both consoles were INCREASING 2nd-3rd years sales almost TWICE. x360 sold HAVEN`T increased. Why it won`t work for PS3 then?

 because your just looking at ONE isolated stat that suitsyour HOPEFULLNESS. Did you pay attention to the volumes at all? Why not make the argument that after 1 year of not selling over 10 million no system won and apply that to the PS3 and say it cant win because of it. It kills me to have to quote FishyJoe, but youre really "cherrypicking" that stat just becaus eit suits the PS3 and not the 360.

I agree the PS3 WILL overtake the 360 in sales, Japan and Europe not to mention the PS3 hasnt climaxed yet with its games the way the 360 has (GT, FF, MGS) but that MY OPINION, if i wer elike you id say:

"The console with Metal Gear, Final Fantasy and Gran Turismo always wins, so the PS3 will" Analysis doesnt work by isolated stats or similarities, analysis comes from exhausting and crunching MANY numbers MANY variables and MANY conditions....not one, like you have.

omgwtfbbq said: TWRoO said: You realise that during the first 2/3 years the dominant system/s usually does not dominate as much, wheras later on the dominant system/s pull further away. I agree however that Worldwide Sony is in a much better position. http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=GC&reg3=All&start=36926&end=37591&weekly=1 I don't know where you pulled that complete load of bollocks from. The system that dominates in the first year always goes on to win. The PS1 was the same (unfortunately, not all PS era data is available in handy graph form) The PS2 never looked like losing.

I said the early dominant system seems less dominant, which i think is true [i'm not checking facts atm] as far as i remember, weekly sales during GC/XB first 2 years were much much better when comparing to PS2 than they were for the 3rd and 4th year. Total marketshare may have still looked terrible but that's because PS2 had a headstart. I think what i was trying to get across is that on something like the "hardware from launch" charts the dominant system will have a similar gradient through its life [selling the same each year] or maybe even a steeper gradient. wheras the less dominant will have a much shallower 3rd/4th year compared to 1st [extreme example is Xbox in Japan] To summarise, yes the early dominant system usually sells more, but early in the generation the less dominant don't look as much like 'failure' as they do by gens end.

The PS1 and PS2 had very different wordwide launch schedules. They didn't even sell to America and Europe for the first 8 months.

I see many things in that NPD for Sony but good is not one of them...

@CrazzyMan : You're not even taking into account release dates or sellthrough. You're also not thinking that maybe, I say maybe, neither the 360 nor the PS3 will sell like the PS2 or the PS1, since the Wii is the uncontested leader of the gen...

CrazzyMan said: @omgwtfbbq: The system, which on it`s second year doubles it`s lifetime sales, ALWAYS WIN. 1) x360 by the end 2006 sold LESS then 8 mln. consoles. 7,96 mln. PS3 is going to do around 8,5 mln. 2) it looks like, x360 console 2nd year sales won`t pass it`s lifetime sales, mean that console FAILED. Hardware Shipments: PSone: Sony Mar-1996 - 4.26 mln. Sony Mar-1997 - 13.50 mln. and MORE then twice. Sony Mar-1998 - 32.82 mln. -> around 30 mln. and MORE then twice Sony Mar-1999 - 54.42 mln. PS2: Sony Mar-2001 - 10.61 mln. Sony Mar-2002 - 28.68 mln. -> around 30 mln. and MORE then twice Sony Mar-2003 - 51.20 mln. PS3: Sony Mar-2008 - i expect 10,57 mln. Sony Mar-2009 - i expect 25,32 mln. -> around 30 mln. and ATLEAST 1,5 MORE X360: Microsoft Mar-2007 - 10.94 mln. Microsoft Mar-2008 - i expect 18,93 mln. -> NOWHERE NEAR CLOSE TO 30 mln. and LESS then twice It looks like, even shipments will be lower. And that means X360 DEFINETELY WON`T WIN.

Where's FishyJoe when you need his sig?

Look, stop pulling out this load of rubbish all the time. This is the same crap Bill Gates was spewing when he said "the first console to 10 million always wins". It's just a random statistic that means nothing. In fact, look at this. I own a Gameboy, PS1, a DS, and a Wii. I could easily say "The game system I buy always wins." This doesn't mean that me owning a system means I win.

When you can tell me what the phrase "cum hoc ergo propter hoc" means then I'll listen to what you have to say because every single post you ever make screams of logical fallacy.

 Now until you learn about the real world, please stop spamming the threads with your useless statistic. We've all seen it. We all know it's bollocks. Go away.

 

 

TWRoO said: omgwtfbbq said: TWRoO said: You realise that during the first 2/3 years the dominant system/s usually does not dominate as much, wheras later on the dominant system/s pull further away. I agree however that Worldwide Sony is in a much better position. http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=GC&reg3=All&start=36926&end=37591&weekly=1 I don't know where you pulled that complete load of bollocks from. The system that dominates in the first year always goes on to win. The PS1 was the same (unfortunately, not all PS era data is available in handy graph form) The PS2 never looked like losing.      I said the early dominant system seems less dominant, which i think is true [i'm not checking facts atm] as far as i remember, weekly sales during GC/XB first 2 years were much much better when comparing to PS2 than they were for the 3rd and 4th year. Total marketshare may have still looked terrible but that's because PS2 had a headstart. I think what i was trying to get across is that on something like the "hardware from launch" charts the dominant system will have a similar gradient through its life [selling the same each year] or maybe even a steeper gradient. wheras the less dominant will have a much shallower 3rd/4th year compared to 1st [extreme example is Xbox in Japan]

Ah sorry, I misundertood. You're saying that the Wii will pull further away from the PS3 and Xbox 360 over the next few years. I understand, and agree.

kuraobi said: @CrazzyMan : You're not even taking into account release dates or sellthrough. You're also not thinking that maybe, I say maybe, neither the 360 nor the PS3 will sell like the PS2 or the PS1, since the Wii is the uncontested leader of the gen...

exactly, the PS1 and 2 WERE on top, the Wii IS on top. We have HD now, BD in the PS3, HD DVD for the 360. 3rd party support is at a different crossroads now. Price of entry to get into the consoles. Handheld market, DS and PSP. More options for the consumer. More competition. I mean the differences between generations alone almost make it IMPOSSIBLE for analysis based on the past generation, this is a WHOLE new ball game, imo.

I mean, just the Wii and DS alone basically make any guesstimated seem absurd. Rather than rankings 1, 2 ,3 perhaps each company should be judge don profit or as a company as a whole. Nintendo? Yeah obvious no need to talk. If the PS3 is successful, not victorious or dominant, Sony as a whole will most likely benefit more than they did from th ePS2 and PS1, just based on BD (imo. If MSFT turns a profit from the 360 thats a success for them as the xbox never did. Success and failure is all relative. Each company has different things at stake. Nintendo is clearly all games and theyre clearly cleaning house thi sgen. But MSFT and Sony have a different direction to where we can determine success and failure....its not always an arbitrary # of units sold anymore, BD, HD DVD, Zune, PSP, Live on Demand etc. Many things are at work here that should be considered above arbitrary sales figures of hardware.

@kuraobi:

x360 probably won`t. It haven`t increased it lifetime sales TWICE.

PS3 - only after March 2009 there will be answer.
IF will ps3 sell around 15-20 mln. in 2008, then IT WILL FOLLOW GLORY of PSone and PS2.

@FishyJoe:

PS2:
by 31 march 2001 - 10,6 mln.
13 month in Japan. 1 Cristmas.
5 month in USA. 1 Christmas.
4 month in Europe. 1 Christmas.

PS3:
by 31 march 2008. - 11 mln.
16 month in Japan. 1 Cristmas with shortages + 1 Cristmas.
16 month in USA. 1 Cristmas with shortages + 1 Cristmas..
13 month in Europe. 1 Cristmas.

yes, there are some differenece, in time, BUt there are also difference in sales + competitors are stronger now, then DC and N64 were.