Kinect will sell a shitload. I think it will be a big success. 2.5 million add-ons sold in 2 months is possible (3 million shipped).
My proof: I showed this to my girlfriend and she asked me to pick this up. She hates gaming. She likes Xbox Live Zune marketplace though. But yeah, it will sell and be the hot thing to get this holiday season. The launch will be pretty much in line with the iPad.
What MS will not do, but should do: Show new stuff in February / March and DON'T wait till E3. There are 15 Kinect games out in November and a lot more in 2011, but you have to keep the newsflow steady. Don't let the hype turn down early. 8 months of waiting is too long
Imagine not having GamePass on your console...









