You know, companies can wish for all they want....ultimately it is the consumer who decides the lifespan of any product. If general interest on today's consoles falls to the ground and software sales, especially from third parties start to decline more and more, companies like Microsoft and Sony will have NO CHOICE but to reactivate the market with something "new" to make the big $$$ for them and their partners, again.

Sure the PS2 stayed around, held on for a good 7 year period (even when the 360 was 1 year old it still outsold it), but no matter how great the software support is, interest goes down, sales eventually drop to a level it can't meet the expectations from shareholders. And it's obvious one of the big companies will make a move sooner or later trying to maximize their potential and the userbase they've gained over a period of time.

So Microsoft wishes for 5 years, but it's not just a matter of time, it's 5 years making GOOD MONEY, or else it's 5 worthless years. If it depended on companies they would never release another new product again, but there's always competition trying to be number 1, and the consumers change.

I'm not talking about just vgchartz. Tens of millions got into gaming without simplistic motion control games. And people aren't born "core" or "casual", they become them overtime. Meaning when the tens of millions of gamers out there started playing they  jumped in and slowly became core with high quality games and not shovelware filled peripherals. 

^yes leatherhat, but this generation alone there are several million new users thanks to those simplistic games, meaning there was indeed a potential market that had not been effectively addressed before. If 10, 20 years ago something like the Wii had existed with similar marketing, then maybe just maybe the industry would have evolved differently. Well, the NES had tons of "casual games" but no system before the Wii could really break the "controller barrier" or had the right marketing/software push combination to reach that massive, dormant audience.

One thing is left to be answered : Is it possible to address both the CORE and the CASUAL at the same level? Is it possible for a system to tap (very succesfully) into this huge market the Wii has awaken and at the same time be very succesful with the hardcore gamers? So far the Wii has failed to properly satisfy both sides, and HD consoles on the contrary have failed to conquer the casuals. But the truth is neither Nintendo, nor the HD hegemons have really tried very hard to do this (conquer both sides). I don't think they believe this is possible with their current products. They just weren't designed that way for one simple reason, the market (which includes the consumers) and the industry were very different when they were concieved and introduced.

Now Sony and MS want to make a serious push to conquer the other side (or at least part of it) with their current generation hardware, but I doubt they will have much success. Nintendo also failed to attract the core so the third-party support for that audience will continue to diminish, although they still struggle to change that perception a little each year with some titles, but it just won't happen. It seems you can either be (VERY) succesful with the casuals or be (VERY) succesful with the hardcore but not both. I guess we will have to wait and see if a future product can be so popular (and amazing!) to capture both types of consumers. If such a console ever exists it would definitely capture over 60% of the market, I think.

I still think new systems are coming by 2012.

However, I am more skeptical on who will be first, 2nd, last. I'm beginning to consider that Nintendo will be first (which doesnt' mean Wii will stop selling...) followed by neXtBox then PS4 potentially a year later.

But by 2012 we'll know for sure.

agreed

so i was right all along! thank you doubters.

Wrong. I started on Atari which consisted of primarily simplistic games as compared to today's "core" games.

On top of that FAR more people play flash web games than anything any console puts out showing far more regular "gamers" enjoy the simply quick games. Nintendo simply captured what was extensive on the web and started that on the consoles.

Once they buy these games on a home console, these players are more likely to buy a slightly more complex game like NSMBWii and potentially keep moving up the game tree depending on their own personal lives. Some people just don't have time for longer in-depth games. Reason why the only game I purchase that takes a real long time to beat is Zelda.

Other than that, most of my games are less than 20hrs games. As it is it takes me months to get through it in my shorter play spurts.

This doesn't prove anything. A company rep would never come out and say when the next item is coming if they weren't ready to begin transitioning to it. None of the companies are ready yet and the earliest you'll hear anything would be E3 2011, but more likely late 2011 or E3 2012.

there you go

no i say 2013 if we are talking early cause in my op 2011, 2012, and 2013 are to early to even mention anything about a new cosole.

i agree with the highlighted portion

Note:

Nintendo 2011-2012: vitality hasn't been introduced yet(unless i'm missing something) Wii motion plus hasn't been fully utilized, and Wii still has the potential to pick up sells. it's still a cash cow and will be for 2-3 more yr's even if sells fall off. why pass up free money. (new console annoucnment 2012-2013 at the earliest/new console release 2014-2015)

360 2013-2015: logical! why release Kinect 2-3 yr's before the new console it just makes no sence. the main thing to remember is that Kinect comes standard with the release of MS new slim line, and even if the software fail's there still going to push it as a success. (new console annoucment 2013-2015 at the earliest/new console release 2014-2016)

PS3 2013-2015: Move in my op isn't apart of Sony's 10 yr vision for PS3, i'm just not convenced yet. Sony just isn't done yet. PS2 is on to it's yr. 11th and may go as far as 13-15 yr's(not logical but possible). (new console annoucment 2013-2015/new console release 2014-2016)

in my own personal op  Nintendo new console annouced in 2013 with Sony and MS following a yr later.