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Forums - Microsoft - Lazard Capital Market analyst: Kinect to sell 2 million units per month

leatherhat on 14 August 2010
ramses01 said:

Just because you are creatively limited doesn't mean the rest of the world is. 

I assure you it has nothing to do with any creative limits and everything to do with hardware limits



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theprof00 on 14 August 2010

IIIIIIiiiii don't think so tim.

It will be successful...but 2 million a monthwould have 360 fully saturated in under two years. Do they know what they're saying?



yo_john117 on 14 August 2010

Its possible, and would be entirely sick if it managed to (since that would translate into a huge increase in 360 sales too)



Icyedge on 14 August 2010
theprof00 said:

IIIIIIiiiii don't think so tim.

It will be successful...but 2 million a monthwould have 360 fully saturated in under two years. Do they know what they're saying?

The analyst is talking of 2 millions per month during the christmas period. And its actually 4 millions over christmas quarter, which can mean 1.5 million in november and 2.5 million in december. Hope it make more sense now ; ). At the moment, theres no prevision from the analyst for afterwards.



theprof00 on 15 August 2010
Icyedge said:
theprof00 said:

IIIIIIiiiii don't think so tim.

It will be successful...but 2 million a monthwould have 360 fully saturated in under two years. Do they know what they're saying?

The analyst is talking of 2 millions per month during the christmas period. And its actually 4 millions over christmas quarter, which can mean 1.5 million in november and 2.5 million in december. Hope it make more sense now ; ). At the moment, theres no prevision from the analyst for afterwards.

ah ok, that's entirely possible.. although I think it is still a bit high. I'd say 4.8 million during nov/dec/jan



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nobodyspecial on 15 August 2010
leatherhat said:
ramses01 said:
leatherhat said:
De85 said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push


It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer currently offers will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.


Fixed.  Just because there's not that much variety in the games that will be out for it this Christmas doesn't mean devs can't/won't get creative and find some really interesting ways to use kinect over the next few years.   

Its a very limited control scheme though, there isn't even a way to make your character walk. Unless you add a game controller which somewhat defeats the whole purpose of kinect.


LOL you are obviously missing the point for Kinect.  As a control scheme it is FAR LESS limited than a controller.


How do you control a character and camera at the same time? How do you make a character move and attack at the same time? Its very limited as a controller.


Taking an FPS as an example you could move the camera with your head or your non-shooting hand. You move the character with your feet, you just just imagine you're standing an a big analogue stick. (Even DDR has a basic example of that and that's over 10 years old!) You point to aim and maybe make a fist to shoot or jab forward (or even jab back as if your gun is recoiling, you can probably even hold a toy/replica gun while you're playing if you want, but only if you use the jab method) or possibly use your thumb as if it was the hammer of the gun. (I know Kinect can't track individual fingers, at least not with the IR sensor, but your thumb should be far away enough from the rest of the fingers to detect.) Could you honestly not think of any of that yourself? It's not exactly rocket science, lol! :p

Edit: On top of all that you can also move your body around far more realistically than with a controller so you can dodge, duck and hide in a realistic and very immersive manner. (Although many people can't jump as well as videogame characters, lol!)



leatherhat on 15 August 2010
nobodyspecial said:
leatherhat said:
ramses01 said:
leatherhat said:
De85 said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push


It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer currently offers will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.


Fixed.  Just because there's not that much variety in the games that will be out for it this Christmas doesn't mean devs can't/won't get creative and find some really interesting ways to use kinect over the next few years.   

Its a very limited control scheme though, there isn't even a way to make your character walk. Unless you add a game controller which somewhat defeats the whole purpose of kinect.


LOL you are obviously missing the point for Kinect.  As a control scheme it is FAR LESS limited than a controller.


How do you control a character and camera at the same time? How do you make a character move and attack at the same time? Its very limited as a controller.


Taking an FPS as an example you could move the camera with your head or your non-shooting hand. You move the character with your feet, you just just imagine you're standing an a big analogue stick. (Even DDR has a basic example of that and that's over 10 years old!) You point to aim and maybe make a fist to shoot or jab forward (or even jab back as if your gun is recoiling, you can probably even hold a toy/replica gun while you're playing if you want, but only if you use the jab method) or possibly use your thumb as if it was the hammer of the gun. (I know Kinect can't track individual fingers, at least not with the IR sensor, but your thumb should be far away enough from the rest of the fingers to detect.) Could you honestly not think of any of that yourself? It's not exactly rocket science, lol! :p

Edit: On top of all that you can also move your body around far more realistically than with a controller so you can dodge, duck and hide in a realistic and very immersive manner. (Although many people can't jump as well as videogame characters, lol!)

That seems very convulted, much more complex than a controller and pretty much the most impractical form of control I have ever heard. And Kinect hasn't even proven that it can do things with the gestures you mention. And even if this was acceptable, how would you control a more complex game like DMC or NG? Raise your hand over your head to swing? Hop three times to do a flying swallow?



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

nobodyspecial on 15 August 2010

You find moving your feet to move complex? You find looking around or moving your hand to move a camera complex? You find pointing to aim and moving your fingers/thumb/hand in someway to shoot complex? How do you function in life and how the hell did you work out how to use a keyboard? Lol! And of course the Kinect is capable of all that and I wouldn't be surprised if some if not all of those things are featured in launch games. (One of the sports games has paintball which could use controls like that.)



leatherhat on 15 August 2010
nobodyspecial said:

You find moving your feet to move complex? You find looking around or moving your hand to move a camera complex? You find pointing to aim and moving your fingers/thumb/hand in someway to shoot complex? How do you function in life and how the hell did you work out how to use a keyboard? Lol! And of course the Kinect is capable of all that and I wouldn't be surprised if some if not all of those things are featured in launch games. (One of the sports games has paintball which could use controls like that.)


Do you really think that its a practical replacement for a controller? If so more power to you, you're gonna need it when you dance all over your living room playing some basic shooter.



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

nobodyspecial on 15 August 2010

"And even if this was acceptable, how would you control a more complex game like DMC or NG? Raise your hand over your head to swing?"

Yes?

"Hop three times to do a flying swallow?"

Maybe, lol! Or there could be hand signals or various other ways I can't be bothered to think of for you.