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Forums - Microsoft - Lazard Capital Market analyst: Kinect to sell 2 million units per month

Seece on 13 August 2010
Icyedge said:
Seece said:
Icyedge said:
Legend11 said:

If Kinect does indeed sell over 2 million units per month with the Xbox 360 bundle being the more attractive option like this analyst believes it will likely turn the current gap with the PS3 into a Grand Canyon.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-08-13-lazard-kinect-will-sell-4m-over-christmas

Lazard: Kinect will sell 4m over Christmas

"Our checks indicate that the 1. Kinect build is on a pace of around 2 million units per month... suggesting to us potentially more aggressive launch plans for the device," he said in a note to investors. "As such, we are increasing our Kinect unit sales expectations for 2.[the Christmas quarter] to 4 million worldwide, up from 3 million units previously."

 

1. According to their source Microsoft are manufacturing 2 million kinect units per month, its not a sales prevision.

2. 4 Million in the christmas quarter, which is 3 months, and its the biggest time of the year.

The analyst is reasonable, the problem is with Legend11 premise. All consoles are selling more than 4 millions in the christmas quarter.

That may be, but they're getting only 2 months of sales given Kinect releases nov 4th in America, possibly later in Europe (grr)

I may be wrong but I think that by christmas quarter he means, november, december and january. I dont see why october would be part of christmas, and quarter means 3 months. Even so, 2 millions per month of sales isnt what the article is about, why are you grrrrr at me?

January isn't a xmas month, and I was grrr'in at the fact it'll be out later in Europe.



 

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NinjaguyDan on 13 August 2010

Must be nice to have a job spewing shit for six digits a year.



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Icyedge on 13 August 2010
Seece said:
Icyedge said:
Seece said:
Icyedge said:
Legend11 said:

If Kinect does indeed sell over 2 million units per month with the Xbox 360 bundle being the more attractive option like this analyst believes it will likely turn the current gap with the PS3 into a Grand Canyon.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-08-13-lazard-kinect-will-sell-4m-over-christmas

Lazard: Kinect will sell 4m over Christmas

"Our checks indicate that the 1. Kinect build is on a pace of around 2 million units per month... suggesting to us potentially more aggressive launch plans for the device," he said in a note to investors. "As such, we are increasing our Kinect unit sales expectations for 2.[the Christmas quarter] to 4 million worldwide, up from 3 million units previously."

 

1. According to their source Microsoft are manufacturing 2 million kinect units per month, its not a sales prevision.

2. 4 Million in the christmas quarter, which is 3 months, and its the biggest time of the year.

The analyst is reasonable, the problem is with Legend11 premise. All consoles are selling more than 4 millions in the christmas quarter.

That may be, but they're getting only 2 months of sales given Kinect releases nov 4th in America, possibly later in Europe (grr)

I may be wrong but I think that by christmas quarter he means, november, december and january. I dont see why october would be part of christmas, and quarter means 3 months. Even so, 2 millions per month of sales isnt what the article is about, why are you grrrrr at me?

January isn't a xmas month, and I was grrr'in at the fact it'll be out later in Europe.

Ok, great you werent grrr at me lol. Just in case you didnt understand my point, what im saying is that hes only talking of the christmas period, which isnt precise by the title nor legend11 premise. Worst than that, the title actually seems like the author is being quote. The prevision are actually quite reasonable, but simply saying a prevision of 2 millions per month dont make any sense. No wander many people here contested the prevision.



iHuGi on 13 August 2010

Im buying a bundle to sell on ebay when they are out of stock... i believe Microsoft wont keep the Stock up so i will sell it for more price than what i bought! or sell it to a friend :D



megaman79 on 13 August 2010

Before E3 i predicted 3 million maximum, after E3 im predicting 2.5 million maximum (for the christmas period).

I just don't think its going to be that much of a influence on console sales. People will certainly buy the console itself seperately though.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

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ramses01 on 13 August 2010
leatherhat said:
De85 said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push


It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer currently offers will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.


Fixed.  Just because there's not that much variety in the games that will be out for it this Christmas doesn't mean devs can't/won't get creative and find some really interesting ways to use kinect over the next few years.   

Its a very limited control scheme though, there isn't even a way to make your character walk. Unless you add a game controller which somewhat defeats the whole purpose of kinect.


LOL you are obviously missing the point for Kinect.  As a control scheme it is FAR LESS limited than a controller.



leatherhat on 13 August 2010
ramses01 said:
leatherhat said:
De85 said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push


It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer currently offers will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.


Fixed.  Just because there's not that much variety in the games that will be out for it this Christmas doesn't mean devs can't/won't get creative and find some really interesting ways to use kinect over the next few years.   

Its a very limited control scheme though, there isn't even a way to make your character walk. Unless you add a game controller which somewhat defeats the whole purpose of kinect.


LOL you are obviously missing the point for Kinect.  As a control scheme it is FAR LESS limited than a controller.


How do you control a character and camera at the same time? How do you make a character move and attack at the same time? Its very limited as a controller.



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ramses01 on 13 August 2010
leatherhat said:
ramses01 said:
leatherhat said:
De85 said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push


It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer currently offers will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.


Fixed.  Just because there's not that much variety in the games that will be out for it this Christmas doesn't mean devs can't/won't get creative and find some really interesting ways to use kinect over the next few years.   

Its a very limited control scheme though, there isn't even a way to make your character walk. Unless you add a game controller which somewhat defeats the whole purpose of kinect.


LOL you are obviously missing the point for Kinect.  As a control scheme it is FAR LESS limited than a controller.


How do you control a character and camera at the same time? How do you make a character move and attack at the same time? Its very limited as a controller.

Just because you are creatively limited doesn't mean the rest of the world is. 



mike_intellivision on 13 August 2010

Kinect could sell 4M during the holiday season. Then it might not sell another 4M in the next year.  The longer term is going to be much more of a test than the holiday season.  However, I don't know how hard it will be pushed at the conventional outlets where many people buy their 360s (Gamestop -- by the employees, not the company), so there are many variables at play.

In addition, the  current crop of software is only going to get those who like to be chic with their geek.  And elsewhere I have read that one issue about adapting other games is that the motion control is tied to the avatar system -- which I take to mean  if you don't Microsoft's people characters, you can't have people playing without a controller.

 

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Icyedge on 14 August 2010
ramses01 said:

Just because you are creatively limited doesn't mean the rest of the world is. 

In my opinion Kinect is more limited than a regular controller in the sense that there is less genre you can play with it in a comfortable manner. The thing is, even if you can make all kind of games for it with your great creativity, some controls will be so convoluted that your better off with a controller. In the end, theres a major difference between a concept and a game actually fun to play. In that regard, I really think Kinect is more limited than a regular controller. But sure, for something like an excercise game using a controller like Kinect lets you do things you would never do with a regular controller.